✔️ ICYMI news, 1/23 - 1/27.
✔️Back in Saturday Broadcast 6, I warned you about PIPs and employers who want to shove you out the door. Now the MSM is finally telling you!
✔️Shadows of the 2008 housing market? Say it ain't so!
✔️More and more layoffs. We're getting weird, conflicting stories of: workers' market and tons of open jobs yet ha ha, not really. 🤦🏻♀️
✔️Around here, when there's a knock at the door or the bell rings - is it a person or is it livestock? One never knows. 🐏
Links I discuss in this episode:
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here's your host Sara Causey. Hello Hello and thanks for tuning in. Today it is Monday January 23. Over on fortune not com it is a crazy mixed bag. The top headline right now is millennials and Gen Z living at home are a train wreck thanks to their parents says personal finance guru Dave Ramsey. You live in your mama's basement but you got to Coach purse Ramsey said you cannot avoid life mama Kate protect you and a quote. Yeah, but let's No forget that on June 9 of 2022. Over on YouTube, Dave Ramsey told us why right now is the best time to buy a house. So you know, I take his opinion about as far as I can throw it. We also find Spotify joins Amazon, Microsoft and Google in announcing layoffs with 6% of staff facing the acts. The US might be headed for a soft landing. But the world is inching towards a long lasting slowdown that could last at least two years. World Bank President says Hmm. A worldwide slowdown that could last at least two years cash, man the plotline of that movie sounds so familiar to me. Where have I seen that movie before? Oh, that's right. The Great Recession slash global financial crisis that went from like 2008 till about 2010 2011. Oh, yeah, I have seen that movie before. student loan payments are set to resume this summer. For ways you could be using your extra funds in the meantime. Oh, I don't know maybe to like live layoffs etiquette Microsoft and others are showing us what not to do when eliminating jobs. Oh, and then tucked away in the middle of all this information, we have a little bit of what is in my opinion. hopium meet the 20 Something couple who saved $45,000 to join the great resignation and take a year long mini retirement traveling the world champagne wishes and caviar dreams. Let's just get Robin leach out here on a yacht to say that you too could have the lifestyles of the rich and famous. Right but then over on LinkedIn today, we learned that there were more than 800,000 people who had been unemployed for anywhere from three and a half to six months in December. But yet Hey, meet the 20 Something couple who saved this money enjoying the great resignation and had a year long mini break. Maybe you too can be like ma'am. Rishi Sunak old hedge fund boss who paid himself $1.9 million a day, last year, once alphabet to lay off more staff and slash Bay. You remember that episode where I was talking about the story about how Rockefeller was making $50,000 a day. And when you updated it to today's currency, it was like $1.7 million a day. Well, hey, here we go. This hedge fund balls paying himself $1.9 million a day last year and he thinks alphabet needs to lay off more staff and slash pay. Well, someone please think of these billionaires and these hedge fund managers please. Southwest is paying its pilots millions in bonuses after canceling 16,700 flights during a holiday meltdown. Cash sometimes this news is so preposterous, I mean, you just can't even go there. Over on CNBC, the narrative is changing. I will be talking about this in Thursday's episode because I feel like it merits an episode all its own. But we're starting to see on CNBC Okay, here all these layoffs. And by the way, you need to be planning for unemployment. You need to know how to file for unemployment benefits. You need to find out the best way to do that and kind of be prepared for it. And I'm like, wait a minute. What happened to everything is sunshine and roses and peaches and cream. It was only last week that we were told we were still in a workers market. You might as well march into the boss's office and demand your race because we are still in a red hot labor market. Wonder what changed there? I'm not going to get into those headlines so much for this portion of the Saturday broadcast because I will be talking about them in more detail. On the Thursday episode. I want to cover a couple of other things. Was that you might have missed. Oh, boy. So on the independent we find recession to be worse than previously thought. Experts say, Oh really? Gosh, I just can't imagine. The recession expected to hit the UK could be twice as bad as previously thought economists warned, soaring household bills slow growth and forecasts of a protracted economic downturn have taken their toll on the millions of Britons struggling against the tough economic environment, thought to be the worst in recent memory. Faced with a worsening situation, less government support and higher taxes. Early signs of possible recovery last week looked increasingly distant with economists at consultancy firm Ernst and Young saying they thought each of the next three years could be worse than they had expected in the past. It comes just three months after E wise item club predicted a point 3% contraction in gross domestic product this year, followed by a 2.4% growth next year and a 2.3% rise in 2025. But in an updated forecast released on Monday, they forecast 2.7% nosedive this year, followed by a 1.9% and a 2.2%. growth in the coming two years. The UK economic outlook has been gloomier than forecast in the autumn. And the UK may already be in what has been one of the most widely anticipated recessions in living memory, according to IE, why? What have I said over and over again, if you wait to be officially told, in my opinion, you are waiting too late. I have been on here not only warning you that we were already in a recession. And who knows how bad it would be when we are officially told oh, hey, everybody, the recession has started. How bad will it really actually be at that point? But I've also been warning you how many shades I have seen of Oh 708. I saw this coming. And I hope that you did too. I hope that you've been able to adequately prepare for it. Also from Fortune we find your boss might be hoping you quit because it's easier and cheaper than firing you. You've probably heard of little black books but what about beige ones? Eight times. Each year the Federal Reserve publishes a report called the summary of commentary on current economic conditions, better known as the Beige Book that details anecdotal evidence about the health of the US economy from business leaders, economist, market experts and other sources around the country. The latest Beige Book released this month contains some interesting tidbits that backup what many business leaders including the likes of Elon Musk have already implied they're hoping you quit. firing employees is expensive and bad for brand reputation. Why pay severance packages and announced layoffs to the media when you can just wait for your workers to quit on their own. Plus, a 2016 study found that after layoffs remaining employees experience survivor syndrome, which reduces performance increases stress and decreases commitment to the employer. Many firms hesitated to layoff employees even as demand for their goods and services slowed and plan to reduce headcount through attrition if needed. Fed officials explained in January's Beige Book. Many business leaders are convinced there will be a recession in 2023. And some companies have already conducted mass layoffs. But these days amid a generational shift in how many Americans view career development and work life balance, executives can also simply use rising employee turnover to slash head counts. Since 2012, the median job tenure of American workers has dropped from about 4.6 years to 4.1 years with broad declines across every age group. Data from the BLS shows and employees under the age of 24 had an average tenure of just 1.2 years last year, while those aged between 25 and 34 spent an average of 2.8 years at each job during the pandemic when many workers during the pandemic when many workers were flush with cash from stimulus checks. Did Mitch McConnell write this? Okay. The attrition rate at many major companies soared. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this week that the attrition rate at his company rose from 12 to 15% during that period, which represents an annual turnover increase of 6000 employees, and although hiring is slowing now for 18 straight months through November, a record number of them Americans have voluntarily quit their jobs. This trend has been labeled the great resignation by the media and it's made it difficult for some employers to fill open positions. Even now, after seven interest rate hikes that have slowed the economy, the labor market remains hot, does it? The unemployment rate was just 3.5% in December, and weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level since September this week. And despite recent news of layoffs at big tech giants like Microsoft and Google, New York Fed officials said that layoffs do not seem unusually high in the Beige Book. One of the reasons for that is costs are rising and after struggling to find workers during the pandemic, many employers are reluctant to initiate mass layoffs that also come with big one time expenses like severance packages and accrued paid time off. And Bank of America for example, the attrition rate has fallen back down to more normal levels in recent months, leading the company to exceed its headcount target. But instead of starting layoffs to right size, the company froze hiring and is using attrition to do the job, and they aren't the only ones. Staffing was still a top concern and firms were largely intent on keeping talent even if demand slows. Most indicated that they would strongly resist layoffs and would instead right size via attrition. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reported this month using attrition instead of layoffs and firings has become a trend in recent months. video game publisher Ubisoft or Ubisoft, I don't know recently announced it would use what it called usual natural attrition. What spin Oh, it's just like usual natural attrition. Anytime you put natural in something you have to wonder about it. It's like cardboard box food that's not even really food but it's Oh, it's all natural. It's healthy. It's fat free. Okay. Usual natural attrition to cut its headcount as part of its $216 million restructuring plan. And Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins told Bloomberg this week his firm isn't planning to cut jobs, instead opting for right sizing using the natural ebb and flow that you drive through attrition. Corporations decision to lean into attrition could be considered an example of quiet firing. One of the many new terms to describe the labor market swings, well, it may be a new kitschy term, but it's not a new thing, trust and believe. The idea is that when managers don't provide enough career development opportunities and support for employees, they eventually leave the company. And in some scenarios, quiet firing can take a darker turn, when when employers actively attempt to squeeze employees out by making their lives difficult at work or enacting return to Office mandates. Oh, I told you so. I sure did. Told you. Oh, I've said this months ago. But look, you are just now being allowed to know from a mainstream media outlet. Hey, we're gonna go from the carrot to the stick. months ago, I was warning you about pips performance improvement plans. I was warning you about these FatCat saying RTO or it's your job. If you want to self select out the door, that's fine with us. We probably hired some of y'all that shouldn't even be here. And if you just want to like quit on your own and leave and find something else. We're totally cool with that. I told you this was coming. I hope you heard me and I hope that you shared any of those episodes with someone that could benefit from the content. Text messages between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and tech entrepreneur, Jason Calacanis, that were revealed as part of Musk's court battle over his $44 billion Twitter acquisition last year show how business leaders can cut costs without announcing layoffs. Two day a week office requirement equals 20% voluntary departures Calacanis wrote to Musk calling the tactic a form of gentleman's layoffs. What's gentlemanly about that? The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reported that Musk isn't the only business that is using these tactics to increase attrition either noting that several employers require employees to return to the office and have become less flexible with remote work arrangements in recent months. The good news is for some workers, job switching has been extremely beneficial between December 2021 and December 2022. jobs which are an average raise of 7.7% Compared to 5.5%. For those who stay Other new positions. That's not keeping place keeping pace with inflation, we know that. We know that. And according to a new survey by zip recruiter, workers who left their jobs late last year earned an even bigger salary increase than those who quit at the beginning of 2022, in quote. So we still get some what I would call, in my opinion, hot air and hopium sprinkled within that, but it's like, okay, you are finally allowed to know what I have predicted months ago, but it's in a mainstream media news source. Now, they aren't going to do these things, hoping that you will leave, then they don't have to offer severance, they don't have to redeem unused PTO that you've earned and accrued, you just get out a gentleman's layoff. How absurd. But that tells you Okay, so if two days RTO equals 20% of people leaving than if you just demand full RTO? Can we also assume that that means 50% of people are just going to bug out? Where are they going to go? If the job market tanks? I'm not saying that to be like super Debbie Downer? I'm asking it as a legitimate question. Where are they going to go? See, I don't believe there are really two legitimate open full time jobs that pay a living wage. For every one unemployed person. I think that is straight up bullshit. I do. Just my opinion. And I could be wrong, but I think it's total BS. So where are these people going to go? As I've written before, in my mind, when we start to get into living situation, feudalism, plus workplace feudalism is just feudalism. Full stop. Is that where we're headed? I hope not. I pray not. I'm just not feeling particularly optimistic about the question today. Today, it is Tuesday, January 24. Over on Yahoo Finance we find stocks fall as rally wanes and earnings pour in 3am to cut 2500 jobs as demand weakens and profit drops. US mattress maker Serta Simmons files for bankruptcy. Lulu falls after downgrade time for a reality check. Now it was back on the 15th that we were told that it is still a worker's market. And with inflation and the cost of living going up well, by Jove, you should just go ahead and ask for a raise. It is a great time. Is it though? Because see, yesterday, we were finally allowed to know that home well. Okay, like No, not really. And then this headline pops up. It is an employers market. Tech layoffs may have turned the great resignation into the great recommitment. The byline reads the flood of recently laid off tech workers on the job market has up ended the dynamic between employers and employees leading to prolonged job searches. I'll be blogging about this tomorrow. Because it's even more impactful when you see those two headlines side by side. We couldn't make this up. If we were trying. Over on fortune.com we find the CEO of only fans wants you to know that her billion dollar a year business isn't just about sex anymore. So I guess we've got that going for us. Disney exec paid equivalent of $3.4 million a month for brief three month stint has already landed a new job. Well, isn't that great? It's really wonderful when we hear about super wealthy people landing on their feet after a setback doesn't just warm the cockles of your heart. tiktoks remote employees could be fired if they don't live near their assigned office location. And if you don't think that that won't happen in other companies, I would love to sell you some oceanfront property here in the landlocked midwest. I definitely think we will see more of that. Inflation has gotten Americans fed up with tipping. If you work for a company, it's that company's job to pay you. Oh, that also gives me a headache because it's like people are just turning on each other. And I can't imagine that won't get worse. I mean, when you look at the correlation between crime and people's tempers flaring. It happens during a long hot summer it happens during economic crisis. I mean, it's sad, but it happens. top economist Mohamed El Erian sees inflation getting sticky at 4% and a growing chorus sees the dawn of a new world in investing Reducing inflation without triggering high unemployment is possible. Fed study says, Oh, is it? Hmm. I guess we'll see what happens because that doesn't really comport with what they were talking about on CBS News last year about unemployment needing to go up and wages needing to stagnate, but hmm hmm. I guess we'll just see how that plays out. Today, it is Wednesday, January 25. on CNBC, we find Tao falls for the first time in four sessions as earnings season continues. More detail on what exactly caused the New York Stock Exchange's trading glitch on Tuesday? Yeah, so I'm going to issue a special broadcast on Friday, when we start looking at some of the headlines about this trading glitch. What happened there? Then we also by the way on the side panel for LinkedIn today, find an interesting tidbit. Banks see exodus of wealthy clients. Okay, then we've also got news that central banks are buying up gold. Hmm, you know, I could be wrong here. But I don't really see these things as independent of one another. And I don't think they're coincidental. Mm hmm. And Hmm. We also find us we'll send Abrams tanks to Ukraine ahead of expected Russian offensive. Okay, we scroll down and we also see us in Germany to send tanks to Ukraine. Russia says the weaponry is a blatant provocation. So as that doomsday clock edges closer and closer to the midnight hour, and it feels like this conflict is escalating. It's becoming even more of a powder keg just waiting for the right spark. I hope that doesn't happen. I pray that doesn't happen. But there's so much tension going on. Who knows? Southwest CEO maps out to recovery after holiday meltdown. We have work to do. Um, yes. So it would seem over on Yahoo Finance, stocks sync as Microsoft guidance, lets down more earnings stream in layoffs in corporate America spread from tech to conglomerates. Yeah, I warned you. That was going to happen. This idea that well, okay. Unfortunately, big tech has taken a hit. But it's okay. If you're in some other industry. If you're not in Silicon Valley, you don't even need to be thinking about it. Huh? Here's the way this is playing out. From my vantage point. Big tech and the banks and real estate. Yes, they took some heavy hits early on. Now you're talking about global conglomerates. It all tends to roll downhill. This is coming soon to a small and medium company near you. We also find Bank of America warns that the US economy will begin to lose 175,000 jobs per month in q1 of 2023 expects a harder landing rather than a softer one. Oh Hmm. But wait a minute. Now we're supposed to be in a workers market. But then oops a daisy about a week later. When apparently on January 23. All of us peons we're allowed to know that actually, no, huh? No, it's an employer's market now y'all. Sorry Boucher. You can't make this up. I will be talking about this in more detail in the Thursday broadcast because we need to be talking about this. I published a blog post earlier today. All right, we've gone from being knee deep and Bs to being waist deep in BS. I'm sorry if that hurts your feelings. I'm sorry if that's bad news to you. I am just trying to be honest with you give you the truth as I see it. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn we find three M to cut 2500 jobs. Remote layoffs become harsh reality. Amazon launches prescription paths bank see exodus of wealthy clients. Long COVID strains labor force, Justin Bieber sells music library. Hmm. So apparently, even you know a wealthy celebrity has decided it's about time to sell the old library and make some money. I always say I can't tell you what to do. I just sit here and opine for your entertainment only but wow. For my perspective, I just see so very many shadows of Oh 708. If you don't pay Good on your mate but out here from my perspective it's it's getting pretty scary. Today it is Thursday, January 26. Over on Yahoo Finance we find q4 GDP beats forecast to cap resilient 2022 the byline reads US economic activity expanded 2.9% in the final three months of 2022. Marking a resilient end to a year defined by stubborn inflation, rising interest rates and battered markets. Stocks rise after GDP beats Tesla leads NASDAQ jump, Tesla stock pops as worst case scenario fears subside. IBM and SAP announced job cuts as tech industry slowdown continues. Comcast says 2023 will see peak losses for peacock. Such a strange and mixed bag. Tech layoffs are setting off a desperate scramble for foreign workers to find new jobs and 60 days before being forced to leave the US. I am always in fear of what will happen. Gen Z and millennials are checked out at work and it could wreck their careers. Okay. Over on fortune.com we find Ken Griffin credits citadels historic $16 billion dollar Hall to one thing, employees full time return to the office. Yeah, I'll talk about that in more detail next week. Because I feel like if you haven't already come up with a strategy, if you haven't already wargame things out. And if if you are in a relationship, if there's to more than one person, let's say working in the household Have you sat down together, and we're gamed out what it would look like if one of you or everyone had to RTO because now their child care and elder care deserts that did not exist in 2019. So the local daycare that you might have really liked and felt was trustworthy, they may not even be in business anymore. Have you thought a strategy out? I know I talk a lot about do you have a job loss survival plan? At this point, I think you also need to consider what would happen if RTO is your only and best option. I'm not saying I agree with it, or that I like it or I support it. I'm telling you, I would not want you to be blindsided by something really unexpected and unpleasant, and then find that you don't even have the resources to be able to do it. As GI Joe always said knowing is half the battle. Sam Altman, the maker of chat. GPT says AI future is both awesome and terrifying. If it goes badly, it's lights out for all of us. Okay, so that sounds great. nothing scary about that. The US economy avoided a recession in 2022 because of shockingly resilient consumers, but they're just about spent. There's that word resilient again. We saw that today over on Yahoo Finance. Okay, so we're also expected to believe that the US economy avoided a recession last year. And it's because consumers were shockingly resilient. That sounds a lot like Mitch McConnell standing there telling you that people are flush with cash. Nobody's going to go back to work while they're living on STEMI checks in Grand grands basement. And FTX owes money to Apple, Google, Netflix, Yahoo and Giselle bunches charity. The housing market recession could be bottoming out. What does it mean for home prices? Hmm. Wow. Um, I don't know. Over on the New York Post, we find these four cities will suffer a 2008 crash in home values according to Goldman Sachs. Hmm. I wonder if it's just going to going to be those four cities. I've told you before I see so many shadows of oh seven and oh eight in what's been going on over the past year. It doesn't surprise me that somebody would finally be saying, Oh, yeah. 2008. It's just that by the time you're allowed to know, by the time that Wall Street comes out and says it or by the time it's in some mainstream media news outlet how far behind the curve are you? So in this article, we find as interest rates continue to skyrocket. Home prices across the country have continued to plummet. And Goldman Sachs says the declines will only worsen and extend through 2023 in a note to clients earlier this month, Goldman Sachs forecasted that for American cities in particular should gear up for a seismic decline compared to that of The 2008 housing crash, I'm gonna burn in long enough to say but remember, we heard a lot of hot air and hopium from people that we would never have another 2008 These loans are so solvent now. The prices are only going to go up. They're never going to come back down. This is not a housing bubble. Yeah, where are those idiots now? Because some of them have washed out. Yeah, I've told you before I have kind of a list of Realtors around here who tried to pee on my leg and tell me it was raining. Treat me poorly lie to me and so on, that I'll never do any business with some of them are not in business anymore. Okay. So according to Goldman Sachs, the four cities on their radar, San Jose, California, Austin, Texas, Phoenix, Arizona and San Diego, California will likely see boom bust declines and more than 25%. Such declines would rival those seen around 15 years ago, during the Great Recession, home prices across the United States fell around 27% According to the s&p CoreLogic Case Shiller Index and quote, I kind of feel like it's good to spread beyond those four cities. I am still here in the Midwest, where I am seeing people trying to put ratty house trailers, or somebody's been cooking meth. Oh, hey, it's an old meth trailer, but it's on 10 acres. So we want like 500k 650 K? No, I'm not gonna give that to you. And neither is anybody else. There's still some of that greed and inflated expectation. It's like some of the sellers cannot rectify that 2023 is not to 2021. I do think it's interesting that at least at this point, you're being told who's gonna be like, 2008? How bad will it really be? Not trying to sound like Debbie Downer. I'm just trying to kind of help you get thinking in a good direction. Are you WarGames out? If you have to RTO How are you going to handle that? If you have a job loss? How are you going to handle that? If all of these home equity values go down? How are you going to handle that? These are like important adult questions to contemplate. Today, it is Friday, January 27. Very glad indeed to have made it to Friday. Over on CNBC, we find key fed inflation measure eased in December while consumer spending also declined. You think? What disposable income is floating around right now for people to have their consumer spending? The photo that goes along with the article is a picture of someone looking at a carton of eggs. We can't see the price tag in this picture. But naturally, one imagines that it's completely absurd. What is a rolling recession and how does it impact consumers? I'll be releasing a bonus episode on Monday to talk about some of the nomenclature rolling recessions specifically, but it just seems more and more. It's like no matter what kind of cutesy wutesy terms get put on these things, slow session, rolling recession, the overall emotion appears to be sit down and hush. Just take whatever pablum that we're spoon feeding to you except these cutesy terms and just be quiet. Take your medicine like a good baby and hush in Intel stock tumbles after brutal results. The DOJ is antitrust case against Google is ambitious, but risky. White House approves more than 16 million people for contested student loan forgiveness plan. Bed Bath and Beyond. defaults on credit line warns that can't pay down debts. Walmart CVS Health adjust pharmacy hours amid labor crunch. I told you Oh yes, I heard whispers on the wind last year that these 24/7 facilities were not coming back. The idea of being able to go to a pharmacy or the Walmart Supercenter at three o'clock in the morning if need be. Those days are over with. And I believe that to be true. We are we are seeing it more and more. Zelinsky demands more sanctions as Russia bombards Ukraine, explosions hurt near nuclear plant. Also, Tornado Alley is creeping into new territory. Now that's something here in the Midwest that I have definitely observed because we used to be you know, right here going straight down the center of the country. We used to be Tornado Alley, but it has seemed to have shifted now. And there are parts of the country that never really had to worry about tornadic thunderstorms the way that we did that now have to think about it. that also feels strange. Chevron annual profit doubles to record 36 point 5 billion. So even though their fourth quarter Miss hits their shares, you know they have doubled their annual profits. So, I mean, that's great. No wealthy oil companies so glad to hear that they're making even more money. Wow. Over on Yahoo Finance we find stocks rise as earnings economic data flood continues, stock futures were lower ahead of the final trading day of a busy week after a rush of economic and earnings news Thursday sent stocks higher key inflation gauge cools further. Wow. Well, I mean, what great news I'm still not seeing it but okay. White House and European Commission to begin AI agreement. What could go wrong their Bed Bath and Beyond warns of inability to pay debts and a regulatory filing. Right under that we find the timeline the rise and fall of Bed Bath and Beyond? Also, interestingly enough, in spite of what we've just heard over on CNBC on Yahoo Finance, we find student loan forgiveness. Biden has no plan B. Yeah, it was also on Yahoo Finance, by way of fortune. The great resignation was fueled by workers obsession with flexibility. I'm sorry, this is not a glitch in the in the recording here. I'm just I'm trying to digest that right. Yeah. Okay. That's exactly what fueled it. The great resignation was fueled by workers obsession with flexibility, big tech layoffs have scared employees reprioritizing what they need. Okay, great resignation was fueled by workers obsession with flexibility. How pejorative is that, like, oh, no, I'm gonna get a headache. I need to just I need to just take a step back here. The great resignation was fueled by the fact Okay, so I'm gonna I'm gonna give you my assessment of it here. The balance of power had been with corporate America for so long. I remember what it was like to hunt for a job and go on interviews back in the deep dark 90s. I feel sorry for some of y'all who never had the experience of being there. It feels funny to me that all these Gen Z, young adults and kids want to relive the 90s. I mean, I can remember going in Walmart to get odds and ends and seeing in the clothing section, it honestly looked like 1994 through about 96 had thrown up in the clothing section. And I'm like, oh my god, I remember wearing that stuff back at that time. And pants, it looked exactly like that on the platform shoes, all of it. So I do feel sad that they weren't there because it was a different time. And and it was a lot of fun. I guess maybe we all feel that way. Like during the period of time, when we were really coming of age, we reached adulthood, we kind of do whatever we wanted to do. without parental supervision. We kind of look back on that time as being a fun time. But I remember what it was like to to job hunt, and you had to grovel you had to go in and it was basically like, you know, Oh, please, sir, might and I have some more gruel in me. Bowl. Gov. Please let me have the scraps from your table or promise or do anything? Or do anything to have this job, mister? Yeah, I mean, it was like that. And so in my mind, the great resignation happened because people were sick and tired of the bullshit, let's let's drag it onto the line and call a thing if then a life or death illness, a pandemic caused people to really think about their priorities. And it also gave people who perhaps had never had the opportunity to work from home before the opportunity to finally do it. And I think a lot of people looked around and they realized that the emperor was not wearing any clothes. This artifice, this pantomime that we were asked to do. You get up in the morning and you drink your coffee. You get dressed, you put on nice clothes, you commute, you either sit on a subway or train or you sit in your car trapped in traffic. And you do battle to get to this office and you sit on a computer and you do work that you could completely do at home and you go through all of these meetings and you smile at the right people and you lurk around the coffee pot at strategic times. Blah, blah, blah, then you commute back home. And then you have to take your makeup off and take off your dress clothes and put on other clothes and deal with the kids and talk to your spouse and people just got tired of it. Once they had the opportunity to see and to know something different. They got tired of it and they realized how farcical it all was. I think About that lyric in synchronicity too packed like lemmings into shiny metal boxes contestants in a suicidal race, people realized fully just how much they had been in that situation. I don't think it's about workers obsession with flexibility to me that reads pejorative, it hits my ear like, Okay, well, the peons and plebs decided to have their little mutiny had their little Mutiny on the Bounty against Captain lies. Once one calls great, Rosa. Yeah, okay. Let's read. The pandemic brought job flexibility into focus as it never has been before workers across a range of industry started pushing back on employers demands to be in the office five days a week and clamored for better work life balance. More than a few were even willing to walk away from a job in order in favor of that doesn't that's not written well, just a second, more than a few were even willing to walk away from a job in order in favor of the promise, I think that's probably in order should have been edited out. More than a few were even willing to walk away from a job in favor of the promise of a more flexible working environment. That makes sense when it's a workers job market, but the good time seemed to be over. With mass layoffs, making headlines, and many experts predicting the US is heading into a recession this year. Workers are now prioritizing job security over flexibility in quote. Well, I hope that you're not caught off guard, I hope that you've been reading my blogs and listening to my podcast. Because if you have then none of this is going to be a surprise to you. Even the narrative. Even this style of oops, that day isn't are all of a sudden we're not in a workers Morgan anymore. The employers are taking that balance of power bag. But yet, if we scroll down, in the same article, we also find, arguably, it's still a job seekers market. There were 10 point 5 million open jobs as of November. But the very public layoffs, particularly in the tech sector, have rattled workers confidence in securing and holding on to a job and quote Yeah, a couple of things. If you think that what is happening in big tech in Silicon Valley is not going to ripple across the greater economy. Oh, I have some oceanfront property here in the landlocked Midwest, I'd love to sell you for a couple million dollars. In our a is quite frankly, I was interviewed by the daily Silicon Valley to talk in particular about what's going on in big tech. I'll drop a link if you want to read that interview. But it's like, hey, look, let's don't make any mistake about it. What's going on in big tech is going to bleed out across the greater economy. And in fact, it already is. We're already seeing this happening. I need to make sure that that was not one of my rams ringing the doorbell because they have indeed learned how to try to open the door. I will be back with you shortly. Okay, so Begging your pardon. I'm back in the saddle. Now I had to go and verify Am I being visited by a human? Is it livestock? The thing is, I know that people like to use the analogy of sheep, like sheep are stupid. They'll believe anything. They'll follow you off a cliff? No, I've never had sheep that were like that all of my sheep have been absurdly intelligent, to the point where they know what a doorknob is and how to turn it and try to let themselves come in. They know how to ring a doorbell. They know how to knock. I mean, it's like oh, yeah, but okay. I guess people find it easier to believe that other creatures are just so much less intelligent than we are. Meanwhile, it seems to me that sometimes it's the two legged creatures that are less intelligent. But I digress. So we're still being told in the same article that somehow it's still a job seekers market. I'll let you try to solve that riddle for yourself. It's like which is it? layoffs and hiring freezes and people sitting on the market for longer than they expected? But somehow, arguably, it's still a job seekers market? Yeah, I'm not convinced. Okay. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find inflation slows most in a year. Again, I'm not saying that. His tech talent reshuffling missed car payments on the rise. Yeah, I think that there will be a crisis there too. I think in the same way that the manipulated housing market is starting to show the wear and tear of all the FOMO and the Yolo of 2021. The auto industry is going to see that too. How can we sustain vehicle payments that are as much as a mortgage you I don't get it. I don't know how somebody else couldn't have seen this coming. drugstores run low on pharmacists, Buzzfeed latest to turn to AI, firms hang up on customer service. See, this is something else, you know, I told you about my terrible birthday situation where I discovered that there are banks that no longer have 24/7 fraud agents, you just have to go through an automated system and hope that it worked out until you can talk to somebody at like, 8am The next morning, don't take things for granted know what your bank's policies are. I'm not surprised to see customer service going away. And it definitely makes me more partial to companies where I do know that I can call and talk to a live human being if the situation warrants it. And I'm an introvert, you know, it doesn't bother me typically to just do something online or through an app on my phone rather than talking to somebody but you know, if it's a crisis situation, there is that real comfort in hearing another human on the other end of the line. Intel struggles amid sales slowdown, latest layoffs, companies making cuts. So that article which they've had going and going and going was updated today because surprise, we're hearing more q&a platform, Cora Goodyear will cut 500 salary positions or about 5% of such roles at the company in the first half of 2023. Hasbro will reduce its number of full time employees by 15%. Texas based plus one robotics let go of 10% of its staff. According to the CEOs LinkedIn post, Europe's largest software company, SAP is laying off roughly 3000 people or 2.5% of its global workforce. Contract Management startup Syrian labs reportedly laid off 15% of staff weeks after raising $25 million Shutterfly will cut 360 rolls nationwide LinkedIn members are posting about layoffs at discount site group on weight loss app neum skincare brand cure ology smart gym maker tonal software company Yext organic search for Tara Kete, and E marketer code three. Wow. Chemicals company Dow said it will cut 2000 jobs globally. As part of its cost reduction efforts digital print publisher dot dash Meredith is laying off roughly 7% of its staff. Clear capital A real estate appraisal firm laid off a quarter of its staff. IBM will terminate 3900 rolls or about 1.4% of its 280,000 person workforce. Wow. But yet, okay, so I still have that tab open. Arguably, it's still a job seekers market. I'm just sitting here rubbing my third eye. Yeah, just so much hot air and hopium and utter nonsense in my opinion. I mean, it's like, what's it gonna take? If somebody is waiting? Whoa, I still you know, I don't I don't see it happening yet. What are you waiting for? What what is it going to take for you to understand that the economy is not in great shape right now. In my opinion, is it a workers market? No. No, no, it isn't. It isn't. Do I think that employers will continue to utilize their upper hand as much as they possibly can in sort of a retaliatory attitude towards the great resignation? Yes. Yes, I do. I wish that that weren't the case, but I can't see any other alternative. Please enjoy your weekend. If you haven't already rough out a job loss survival plan. Do not assume that layoffs and hiring freezes and pips are going to be relegated only to big tech or relegated only to huge global conglomerates. Please understand that it could happen to small and medium companies anywhere at this point. I will also be talking next week about whether or not you have roughed out an RTO survival plan. Because Hello, hi, how are you? That's another wave that's not going to go away. Even if your employer has told you well, you know, we plan on being remote forever. I mean, that's really a cornerstone of who we are as a company. What if they change their mind? What if the company changes ownership? What if there's a merger or an acquisition? These things do happen? And you will see more of that. type of financial maneuvering going on during a profound downturn. I think it's so important to be prepared rather than scared and not caught off guard. We just really don't want to get into that mindset of, well, that might happen to somebody down the street, but it would not happen to me. Somehow I'm different. There was a report on the nightly news tonight, where they were doing kind of like a census of the homeless and one of the downtown areas and trying to figure out like, what, what are the most urgent needs of the homeless population in this community. And the county was the county commissioner, the city commissioner that said, we always have to remember there, but for the grace of God, go i. And then we're talking about interviewing these individuals and being truly surprised at some of the stories that they heard. Sometimes people imagine a person becomes homeless because they were a criminal because they were doing illegal drugs. And one of the things that they found is that people turn to drugs to cope with homelessness. They were not doing street drugs in a house. And that's what caused them to become homeless. In some cases, people were working a job, they had a roof over their head, and they got hit with medical bills, they had unforeseen expenses, they had to deal with a death in the family and things just sort of snowballed on them. And they liked the documentaries I talked about in the living on the brink episode, they were talking about people that they just would not have imagined a generation ago. Let's say it would be difficult to imagine a school teacher or a nurse or a physician's assistant being out on the street homeless. were drowning in debt. You just You didn't imagine that. That is becoming reality. I understand. Okay, Debbie Downer and why are you on here saying gloom and doom? I'm trying to tell you reality. I'm not trying to scare you. I'm not trying to say you're going to be homeless tomorrow. Your company is going to shut down tomorrow and you're going to be homeless out on the street tomorrow. I wouldn't say that to anybody. I don't know what your circumstances. I opine for your entertainment only. And that's it. If it were me, I would want to have a job loss Survival Plan roughed out as well as an RTO survival plan. What would I do? Even if you're thinking of it as a temporary stopgap? Okay, if I have to go back to the office, and commute and put on a business suit or a polo and khakis until I could find something totally remote? How am I going to handle that? Where are the kids going to go? You know, that's something else. I noticed I ran some errands today. And there was a daycare. And this place was huge. It was situated right beside an elementary school, as well as several of those like add water and stir subdivisions, the kinds of places and don't don't send me hate mail saying I'm an elitist. I lived in one at one point in time, the kind of subdivision where you can slap your neighbor's house from outside your window because everything is just the construction is largely slap bang together. And everybody is just sort of packed in like sardines. But this daycare was next one elementary school, it was next to a church and it was right in front of, I don't know, four or five of those subdivisions that all fit into the school. And it was huge. And it was very well kept. It was not like okay, well, you know, the place the roof had halfway caved in. It was dingy. DHS came in, shut them down. No, no, no, no, nothing like that. This place was very, very nice. It has gone out of business. And there's a real estate sign advertising that it's now available to purchase as corporate real estate. So there may be childcare or eldercare deserts where you are that did not exist in 2019. And if you have moved far out, maybe you decided, hey, I want to get away from major metropolitan areas and we want to live on in the country we want to homestead. Well, if you're still working for somebody else, and you are a full time w two employees that is dependent on your employer in order to have a living, and now you've moved an hour or two or three away from the office and they command you to come home back. How are you prepared to handle that I myself would want to have a game plan. And I wouldn't want to do it after a disaster happened. I'd want to be prepared ahead of time rather than being slapped upside the face. You know, I've been I've been punched a few times in my life knocked down in the school of hard knocks and it doesn't feel so good. And I certainly wouldn't wish it on anybody. Please enjoy your weekend. If you need to take some time to prepare if you need to get out the notebook or the marker board and wargame some strategies out I can't say that's a bad idea. Stay safe, stay sane. And I will see you in the next episode. Thanks for tuning in. If you enjoyed this episode, please take a quick second to subscribe to this podcast and share it with your friends. We'll see you next time.