✔️ ICYMI news, 1/28 - 2/3.
✔️Layoffs and more layoffs. And no, they aren't all in Big Tech.
✔️Oil companies are raking in record profits, so hey, we got that goin' for us.
✔️The war hawks are fiending for conflict.
✔️Tons of open jobs! (Supposedly.) Now, they're in leisure, fast food, hospitality, and health care, but TONS OF OPEN JOBS FOR THE WORLD!
Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here's your host, Sara Causey.
Hello, Hello, and thanks for tuning in recording this portion of the broadcast a little bit earlier than usual. This is Saturday, January 28. There were a few things that popped up on my radar today and I felt like it was just too important to leave it. One thing popped up on Reuters so not fringe lift or fringe, right, some news outlet or some commentator somewhere that nobody ever heard of this was on Reuters today. The article is us four star general warns of war with China in 2025. In this article, we find a four star US Air Force General said in a memo that his gut told him the United States would fight China in the next two years. comments that Pentagon official said we're not consistent with American military assessments. I hope I am wrong. General Mike Minahan, who heads the Air Mobility Command wrote to the leadership of it's roughly 110,000 members, my gut tells me we will fight in 2025. The letter was dated February 1, but had been sent out on Friday. So that would have been yesterday. The general views do not represent the Pentagon, but show concern at the highest levels of the US military over a possible attempt by China to exert control over Taiwan, which China claims as a territory, both the United States and Taiwan will hold presidential elections in 2024, potentially creating an opportunity for China to take military action. Minihan wrote, these comments are not representative of the Department's view on China, a US defense official said in quote. Now, am I sitting here telling you this is 100%? For sure going to happen? No. I don't know that. And neither do you. I have no idea. I feel like it's worth filing this away in the back of your mind. If nothing else. A lot of money gets generated by the engines of war. I to hope and pray that this doesn't happen. I think we just need to keep our head on a swivel in case it does. mean I don't think that this person's reasoning is just so far afield that it just It can't even be taken seriously. I don't think so. This idea of okay, both the US and Taiwan will have their presidential elections in 2024, this could create a potential opportunity for China to take military action. That doesn't seem just so totally off base as to be rendered irrelevant. I hope that war doesn't break out. To me, just in my opinion, I don't really feel like you can draw out distinction between the left or the right when it comes to war, Hawking. I don't. And I feel like if the military industrial complex decides that it's time to go to war, then that's what's going to happen. There's a lot of money and a lot of power there. And I just don't think that the average American is going to be able to overcome that. And I think if the powers that be decide it's time to have a war, then guess what? You know, I have read some material if we want to put on our tinfoil hats for a moment here, I have read some material that sort of theorizes that the Korean Conflict really kicked off this notion of America getting dragged into conflicts or dragged into wars, where there's not even really a clear objective. The United States doesn't emerge as a winner or one of the victors in the war. It's just sort of like getting the general population to go along with us being at war or having some kind of conflict on a regular basis. Even if we don't understand why. Even if we don't walk away, quote, victorious, everybody's sort of scratching their heads going, what was the point of this? It's like a form of conditioning, just get you used to going along with these war hawks that think we ought to always be at war, or in the middle of conflict or with our troops stationed around somewhere at all times. Is that the case? I don't know. Just putting that information out there so that if you feel like going and checking out that material for yourself, if you want to put your tinfoil hat on and go down that rabbit hole you can I just have to wonder because it does it just it seems like these conflicts are just coming and coming and coming. And I have to wonder how long will it be before we get pulled into a hot war situation? I hope never. But I just don't think that that's a very realistic hope. Now over on CNBC today, another interesting article popped up. Shifting gears a little bit here, US unemployment system still plagued by delays three years after pandemic era downturn. In the key points, we find the US unemployment system buckled in the early days of the COVID 19 pandemic, historically, high claims ran headlong into the reduced resources of state workforce agencies. But in this case, they have also had to beat back elevated unemployment fraud and new Cares Act programs. The system hasn't fully recovered. 78% of first benefit payments were issued in a timely manner in December, and they've put timely in quotes in a timely manner in December down from about 97% in March 2020. In quote. Yeah, I know I'm a broken record. Do you have a job loss survival plan? If you are freelancing, or you own and operate your own business, if the primary way that you make your money in that business or in that freelancing desk, if that goes away? Maybe not for forever, not permanently, but if it goes away, or the work dries up significantly? You feel like you're just sort of fighting with everybody else in the industry for crumbs? Do you have a plan B, or C or D? I understand that's not a sexy, fun topic to think about. In my opinion, you had better damn well be thinking about it. If you haven't already. wargame those strategies out, I think you might be too late. I know that as Debbie Downer. I know that you're supposed to be super optimistic. Kinda like the old phrase. The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is today. Yes, that's true. But how long is it going to take that tree to grow where you can sit underneath the shade of it? If you need a solution, quick, fast and in a hurry. I'm not sure that you're not already behind the eight ball at this point. I hope you're not and I really hope that you prove the naysayers wrong. I don't want anybody to suffer. But just as I said about the war hawks, if the if the wheels come flying off of this economic jalopy that we're in, I hope that you're prepared. So in this article, we're learning that US unemployment system is still plagued by delays three years after the pandemic era downturn. So if you're thinking is, I'll just filed for unemployment. I don't want to rough out a job loss survival plan. I don't want to think about those first five phone calls post layoff just know, my head hurts. I'm not in the mood for that don't want to do it. I'll just file for unemployment like everybody else. And that'll be good enough. What if it's not? What if it's not enough money? What if your payments are delayed? What if that system crashes? I mean, look at all these glitches that we've had in these various cyber systems. Now we're told they're just Oopsy daisy human errors, but what if they're not? What if they are, and they there really are a lot of erroneous humans clicking the buttons like they have no idea what the hell they're doing. Are you prepared for that? I hope so. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find big tech layoffs are a problem of the industry's own making. The byline reads over 60,000 workers in the tech industry have been fired this year as growth expected to endure after the pandemic has failed to materialize. Right next to that we see the headline, US manufacturing succumbs to fed interest rate hikes. Okay. So the people who told us that only white collar knowledge workers would be impacted by this recession, blue collar and manufacturing jobs would be just fine. The people who told us it would only be big tech. If you are in some other industry outside of Silicon Valley, we're probably going to be a okay. How are their predictions holding up now? Last year, I told you and I told you and I told you that I felt like it was an auspicious time to get strategic and intentional about where you were getting your information from Who are you listening to? What are they telling you? What do you feel like is real? And as time went on, I knew like No, it's too late. If somebody is still burying their head in the sand, if they're more worried about celebrity gossip and reality TV show bullshit. If they want to believe that the great resignation is going to go on and on and on ad infinitum. They can just job hop all across the market basically forever and get more and more money each time and everything's gonna be okay. What What can you offer somebody in that scenario? Some people would rather have a fluffy, nice comfortable lie than an uncomfortable painful truth. That is reality. Think back to A Streetcar Named Desire Blanche DuBois saying,
I don't want realism. I want magic. Well, so does everybody. Everybody would rather have the magic everybody would rather have the fluffy pillow in the sunshine and the roses and beauty and wonderment. Yeah, of course. That's not always reality. The rain falls on the just and the unjust. It is not the fault of average working class people that this is happening, I believe, okay, tinfoil hat and then put on another tinfoil hat. On top of that, when I believe that these boom, bust cycles are engineered, and they're done on purpose. I don't believe they just happen chaotically or they happen on accident hope? Well, gosh, we just couldn't have seen that coming. Who could have imagined it? I don't think so. I believe they're engineered on purpose to make wealthy people even wealthier. And to make poor people even poorer and more compliant. That's just my opinion. And I could be wrong. I feel like the onus is on you to wake up, pay attention and protect yourself and your family. It's not your fault. It shouldn't be this way. But welcome to Reality. We also find on Yahoo Finance, US productivity is stalling out and employees are less willing to engage in hustle culture as one in five Americans admit to doing the bare minimum at work. Hmm. So let's keep those tinfoil hats on. You know, I wonder if maybe just perhaps some of what's going on here. With this boom bust cycle, in my opinion, the artificially inflated everything bubble? Hmm. You know, I wonder if the air being led out of the job market is maybe partially because corporate America wants that productivity to go back up. And it's not really about productivity in a true pure sense of the word. In my opinion, it's more about feudalism. It's more like indentured servitude, you get your ass back to the cubicle. You get in there in that office, and you sit down and you shut up. And whatever we tell you to do is what goes because you know what the alternative is, you're homeless. The alternative is your car gets repoed. The alternative is you can't feed your kids tonight. So what's more important to you having your little rebellion and being a naughty worker? Who does the bare minimum to get by or do you want to survive? Maybe that sounds harsh to you. Maybe that feels unrealistic? I don't know. I just sit here and opine for your entertainment only. And I spit the truth as I see it. And that's how I see it. Oh, and speaking of the car getting repoed over on Bloomberg, we find Americans fall behind on car payments at higher rate than in 2009. So there's another shadow of the Great Recession slash global financial crisis. The byline reads automobile repossessions are climbing as inflation forces struggling consumers to make tough choices. In this article we find losing his car was just the beginning when 21 year old Coby hatch walked outside his Chicago home in December and couldn't find his 2013 Dodge Journey. He knew it had been repossessed. He'd been falling behind on payments for months. Without a car. He couldn't do his job as a delivery driver for Amazon and got fired. Now he's struggling to make his rent payments and can't even afford groceries even with food stamps. It's been very stressful for the past few months. He said inflation has really taken a toll on people. Hatch is part of a growing cohort of Americans facing auto repossessions an ominous sign for the US economy during the pandemic a surge in US car prices. US used car prices forced buyers to take out bigger loans for their vehicles. The monthly payments seemed doable in an era of stimulus checks, a tight labor market and surging stocks. But that's changed for many people as inflation eats into their budgets and the job market cools. Now more Americans are falling behind on their car payments than during the financial crisis. In December the percentage of subprime auto borrowers who were at least 60 days late on their bills rose to 5.67% up from a seven year old Oh of 2.58% in April 2021, according to Fitch Ratings, that compares to 5.04% in January of 2009, the peak during the great recession and quote. Yeah, I mean, it's not that difficult to put it together. Let's go back and read just a little bit here. The monthly payment seemed doable in an era of stimulus checks a tight labor market and surging stocks. But that's changed for many people as inflation eats into their budgets and the job market cools and quote, your interpretation should be your interpretation, my interpretation, my opinion, my analysis, this was done on purpose. I think it was. You ever heard that Don Henley song inside job? Yeah, kind of think it was. So you get people, let's just let's just play pretend, okay, let's play pretend that we are like an arch villain in a movie. Okay, so we're this big, bad villain. And we're trying to think about how can we break these people? How can we take their stuff? Okay, well, so it's a little bit easier to lure the mouse into the trap, if you've got a really attractive cheese wedge on the trap. So get them in there. You let them eat some of the cheese, you let them feel good, you get them relaxed, and then pop, there goes the trap. Maybe your interpretation is different. I just know what I'm seeing. And it feels pretty freakin obvious to me. Also over on Yahoo Finance today, we find bear down and be as frugal as you can baby boomer financial experts who survived the great inflation share tips to ride out a recession. So that's interesting, because, you know, there's supposed to be all of this generational warfare, for the most part as excerpts get forgotten in it. And that's fine by me. And that's honestly how I prefer it. But there's supposed to be this idea of, there's the baby boomers against the millennials and the Gen Zers. Like there's some kind of massive cultural divide, they can't even relate to each other at all. They just don't get it like the pejorative. Okay, Boomer. And I'm not saying that the boomers have done everything right. No generation has nobody's perfect. But now all of a sudden, the narrative is, well, you should be willing to look to baby boomer financial experts who survived the great inflation. Honestly, the story is just whatever they tell you. It's almost like they pull it out of their backside. Sometimes. There's a picture that goes along with this of Ronald Reagan standing in front of a graphic of your taxes and the average family income 1982 to 1986. Let's read a little bit. It was a time of big air shoulder pads in the Cold War. But something often forgotten when being nostalgic about the 80s was the interest rates that were high enough to make you dizzy. The interest rate started the decade around 20% said Brad Lyons, a certified financial planner and an investment manager at wiser wealth management based in Georgia. They had raised them dramatically in the late 70s trying to deal with inflation. You know, that has a familiar ring to it. You know, kind of think that we've seen that recently, haven't we? Lyons was in his early 20s At the start of the 1980s. And though today's rising interest rates still look small in comparison, there's a lot that can be learned from people who've been through it yet don't say consumer prices rose 5% in December from a year ago. That's down from a 40 year high of 9.1%. In June. Still inflation like this hasn't been seen in decades. Huh. 9.1% in June, I don't really trust that number. felt a lot higher than that to me, and it still does, but okay. And people who remember the ridiculously high interest rates that followed the high inflation in the 1970s say, buckle down and be prudent because we're in for a long haul. Experts have drawn parallels between the high inflation of five decades ago and what's happening today. Back then there were several factors that played into it. low unemployment. Wait a minute, low unemployment. Haven't we heard that in the narrative? Supposedly, we have a 3.5 or 3.7% unemployment rate there are two legitimate open jobs for every one unemployed person Haven't we heard that I heard that and her dad and heard that. The removal of the gold standard the monetary system in which a currency is backed by gold. Yeah, okay. So fiat currency is not backed by anything other than hot air and a government edict. Huh? Huh?
That sounds familiar to doesn't it Wow. But energy prices pushed things to their limit. In 1973, the price of oil nearly quadrupled. When members of OPEC enforce an oil embargo on the US and other countries that supported Israel. during the Yom Kippur War, there was a series of knock on effects that caused inflation and stagnation to swell. Then the Iranian revolution at the end of the decade sent oil prices surging again. I'll refrain from putting my tinfoil hat on about that. But you know, the engines of war and all of these coup de TOS they seem to benefit the power brokers and the wealthy a lot more than they ever benefit the average person. By 1980, inflation was at 14.5%. And unemployment hit 7%. The Federal Reserve hiked its federal funds rate to a whopping 17%. For comparison, it's currently at 4.25 to four and a half percent. The high interest rate man getting ahead almost impossible, says Mike Drac, who was a banker at the time, he remembers his mortgage rate was 17 and a half percent at the time, I'll put in and say that I think an 83. My, the one that my parents had was 18%, I think, I think it was so yes, when we're when we're looking at like 7% interest rate, which is what I had. So back in, oh, seven when I bought a house. It was a foreclosure house. And I think that my rate was seven or seven and a half, which feels high, we have gotten so accustomed to having a lower rate on our mortgages that yes, I mean, to me that that seems very high. But when you look back at what was going on in the early 80s, yes, it is low in comparison to people paying 17 or 18% for a mortgage. Can you kind of see the same thing that I'm seeing though, so we had this period of high inflation. And then we had global dust ups that impacted the global economy and OPEC did what it did. And the Federal Reserve hiked its interest rates, and hiked its federal funds. So inflation goes up, and unemployment was going up to efficiently so far as we're told it hit 7%. Can you not imagine that the same thing would happen again? I'm just gonna leave a long pause there. Because it seems to me like it's entirely possible. I'll read just a little bit more. Rates were going up, it was almost monthly, they were increasing drag says. So it seemed like it was something that didn't seem like it was ever going to stop. And I remember saying at one point, if I could ever find one day where I could find a mortgage rate for 10%, I'd be the happiest person in the world. Drac is the author of victory lap retirement and retirement heaven or hell, which will you choose and a senior contributor at booming encore a Finance Blog focused on the baby boomer generation. Debt at that time, rose quickly says drag on houses on credit cards on vehicles. It was tough, scary times. But we were lucky because we could work. So our wages kept increasing not at the same pace. But it necessitated both people working both people working to help pay down debt and quote. Yeah, well, I mean, I guess you were lucky if you could find a job. I mean, with high unemployment. Not everybody can find a job. I mean, we relocated and my parents had to deal with buying a house at that insane interest rate, because my dad had been through a layoff. He was in the oil and gas industry. And his job was eliminated. This This is reality. I've thought about doing an episode around the song money's too tight to mention. Because I feel like we're kind of there and will be again, they're talking about Reaganomics. Oh, lordy. Down in the Congress, huh? Yeah. Supposedly, you know, and well, this is going to trickle down. If we just keep the billionaires happy, then they'll make sure that we have enough to eat from the crumbs of their table. I don't know about that. But yes, it did it. That kind of an economy does necessitate both people in the household working and staying steadily employed and not under employed either. Vas you dere Charlie?. Oh, yeah. Yep. Yep. So as I've mentioned before, what happens if you go through a layoff and then if you have a spouse or a partner and you are dependent on having a double income household, what if both of you are laid off at about the same time What is that going to look like for your household? I want to revisit one line from this article before I go debt at that time, rose quickly says drag on houses on credit cards on vehicles. We see the same thing right now. So what happens to that debt? Does the bank or the credit card company? Do they show up and just take you by the hand, rub your shoulder and say, You know what, it's okay. We're going to help you get through this. We're not going to act like Ebenezer Scrooge, we're going to make sure that you're okay. No, they repo. They take your car, they foreclose on your house, you have to default on your debt, you may have to declare a bankruptcy and that'll follow you around for years. If you're not awake yet, I'm just not sure what's going to do it.
Maybe that sounds harsh, but I don't have I don't have anything else left to give you. I
don't have any hot air. I don't have any hopium. Today, it is Monday, January 30. Pardon any background noise. I do have a heater going because it's just cold. I mean, it's just cold and it's that wet kind of cold like a damp cold that just seems to get into your bones and it becomes unrelenting. We've also had thunder, sleet and some on and off freezing rain. So it's just been a lousy weather day here in the Midwest. Over on CNBC, we find Ford and General Motors enter a new phase of uncertainty on prices and demand. s&p 500 slides as traders brace for a busy week of earnings and Fed rate decisions. How the Supreme Court could soon change free speech on the internet. Well, I'm sure that that'll be nothing but good news. The Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates again, what that means for you. Boris Johnson says Putin threatened him with a missile strike in call Berlin rolls out fighter jets for Kyiv. Over on Yahoo Finance, we also find the US consumer is starting to freak out. The byline reads the flush savings accounts and cheap credit that helped keep American spending at high rates since 2020 are disappearing. While inflation remains elevated. You don't say I'm going to publish a blog posts later, the rate at which all of these things are unfolding. You know, I feel like we're at the point where the wheels on this economic jalopy that we've all been riding in the wheels are starting to come off. And you could post content all day long. You could blog and you could record podcast episodes all day long on nothing but the clown world and the conflicting bizarro narratives that we find ourselves in. But I read an article earlier, was having my breakfast and drinking some coffee and trying to get warmed up after I had been outside in the sub arctic temperatures. And there was an article that popped up from inc.com, where this lady was talking about big tech and will big tech cause their own misery they created an arms race and I'm sitting here like I don't know about that. I think they had a little bit of help. I think that they did not create an omni bubble by themselves. It's also not isolated to big tech. But this idea of the US consumer is starting to freak out. First of all, if you're only starting to worry, or starting to pay attention just now today, you are so far behind the eight lol Oh, and I know, I know, believe me, I am not supposed to say that. I am supposed to tell you that you are going to be just fine. Even if you're only just now paying attention. And other people have been preparing for months or maybe even years, and they undoubtedly have a leg up on you. You're still going to be just fine. Everything's going to work out. Don't even worry about it. So if you're only just now starting to freak out. I'm not trying to sound like Debbie Downer. I know I'm going to that's not my intention. And I also don't give any advice. I don't tell you what to do or what not to do. I sit here and opine for your entertainment only. And in my opinion. I'm not sure if you're gonna make it. If you have a friend or a family member and they've kind of poo pooed you maybe they don't really care about the economy, they're too focused on things that will not ever impact their life in any significant way. They're focused on that junk and drivel instead of paying attention to the things that matter and that will have an impact on their daily life and their ability to earn a living, or to keep the lights on. I'm not sure that they're going to make it to me, it's like how bad does it have to be? But as I've told you before, I feel like this Hush, little baby. Don't you worry about it. You take your pablum. You eat your little baby food and your bush and you hush. I believe that is being done to avoid the freakout to keep the so called unwashed masses and the little people and the unimportant hoi polloi. Out here, pacified, do not allow them to know what's happening until frankly, it's too late for them to do anything about it. That does not have to be you. And I hope to God it's not. I feel like Jared a Brock makes such a wonderful and artful explanation. In his article, I will drop a link to it yet again, I've linked to it many times. I feel like it's a fantastic article, where he talks about how the hyper elites want your stuff. They're going to crash the economy and take your stuff on the cheap and they're not going to feel sad about that. The onus is on you to stay aware of what's going on in economy. And in my opinion, rough out a job loss survival plan. I'll also be talking about an RTO survival plan. Because do you have one of those? Where are the kids going to go? Or if you've been taking care of a sick, elderly relative? What will happen to them if you have to go back to the office? Because you probably will. If you're only just now thinking about those things, I may and I don't know. I don't know. We also see the Fed expects a soft landing and no recession for the economy. We could get stagflation instead. And the byline reads, the Fed wants to achieve inflation reduction by forecast instead of by policy. That usually doesn't work. Oh, okay. That reminds me of like in the 10 commandments, so let it be written. So let it be done. By forecast rather than by policy. Okay. So we're going to speak it into existence as though we're performing a magic spell, and then should just kind of happen because we said so. Oh, you. We couldn't make it. We could not make it up. Also over on fortune.com interesting little tidbit. Today, we find disgraced fire festival founder Say that three times fast fire festival founder Billy McFarland is out of jail. And he's trying his luck as a marketing consultant. Want to learn my method? No, no, I would prefer not to. Again, it's just I mean, you have to laugh to cry. top economist Mohamed El Erian says the Fed has a small window to reduce inflation after missing hard on other opportunities. But see over on Yahoo Finance, we learned that they want to do it by forecast rather than by policy. So let it be written. So let it be done. More than half of Americans raking in $100,000 More and more are living paycheck to paycheck. Yeah, no, Sherlock. That's one of the reasons why I find it so very hard to believe that there's going to be some nationwide strikes of nationwide walkout. A hell no, we won't go sit in protest of our to you let the economy get even worse than it already is. Or perhaps more pointedly, you allow the unwashed masses to know how bad it really is. They're not going to be sitting at home having a nationwide strike. Corporate America knows that Wall Street knows that the power brokers know that. You should probably know it too. layoffs are the medicine America needs to take to break out of inflation's vicious circle, says former Walmart us CEO. Oh well. Okay, so apparently that person is being more overt. They're just outright telling you take your pablum little baby. This is the medicine always go to taste it you wiki. It's gonna be so gross, but you need to take it lay off layoffs are the medicine American knees. Yeah, they're the medicine that America means. According to the fat cats because they want to bring you to heal. You had a little too much power there. Yeah, little too much fun job hopping around during the Great resignation. And so that shits got to end hasta pronto you're gonna get back in that cube, you're gonna sit down and you're gonna shut up. We also find a soft landing is playing out, but optimism needs to be for the right reasons. Were in the hell is this soft landing? I'm not seeing it. I'm not feeling it. I daresay the people who have been through a layoff and they're worried about how they're going to make ends meet, especially with inflation still being so bad. Even though we're supposed to believe it's cooling and it's abating and all that still yet when you go to the grocery store, I'm not seeing price drops. Or if you go to a discount store like Dollar General, I'm not seeing price drops there either. In fact, I'm still seeing the stickers going over stickers going over stickers, there are still things that are more expensive than they were the last time you were in the store.
Where is this soft landing, other than in the sweet by and by Lord and the sweet by and by, if you think you know where it is, that's great. If you're feeling it, that's great, too, but I'm not seeing it. Today, it is Tuesday, January 31. It's hard to believe that it's the end of January, and we're a third of the way through q1 of this year. I'm not entirely sad about that, to be honest, because in these recessionary periods and bust cycles, feels like everybody wants to move slow decisions are not really happening at any kind of normal pace, and it's just some not really sad about it, per se. Over on CNBC, we find Pay Pal to lay off 2000 employees in coming weeks about 7% of workforce. And then we also find Dow jumps 200 points as Wall Street builds on its strong January gains. Oh, great. All right. Well, so as long as Wall Street is doing good well. workday cuts about 525 jobs but says it is not the result of over hiring. Let's click on that. And the TLDR key points we find cloud provider workday laid off 3% of employees mostly in product and technology. workdays, co CEOs told employees, the company would still hire and grow its headcount for the 2024 fiscal year. I wonder how the people that were laid off feel about that, oh, we're gonna grow next year, but I'm just not with you mean. Ouch. In the article, we find workday, a cloud only business planning software company will lay off 3% of its employees, the company's co CEOs wrote in a message to employees on Tuesday, in October 2022, the company reported headcount of more than 17,500 employees an increase of over 15% compared with January of that year. That means the layoffs should affect about 525 people, shares of Workday were up about 1% When markets opened and quote, as long as those shareholders are getting what they want, well, let's just not worry about the little guy. Here's another interesting tidbit, the photo that goes along with the CNBC Article of the CO CEOs of Workday. Well, it was taken on January 17. And guess where they were? They were at the WEF, in Davos. What a big coincidence. I just can't believe that. Now we also find the COVID pandemic drives Pfizer's 2022 revenue to a record $100 billion. I can't believe that either. Just so many coincidences piling up. Wow. Also on CNBC, why the case is growing for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut before year end really do tell. In the TLDR key points we find. A new CNBC fed survey shows more belief among economists and investors that the feds talk about raising rates to 5% and holding them higher for longer won't be the case by the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting rates again before year end, the survey finds recent economic data and commentary from members of the CNBC CFO Council indicate that wage growth and labor market tightness which are most concerning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, are showing signs of easing and quote. Hmm, yeah. Mm hmm. I don't know about that. I think that might kind of be Some hopium in my opinion, I'm not sure that we should expect them to crank up a boom cycle again this fast now I know that the media wants you to think that we have this narrative shaping up of okay, alright, it's gonna be a little bit tough but only for a few months. Go ahead and take your medicine little baby and her sheer mouth. You can weather the storm for a few months. I mean, after all, weren't you flush with cash in grandma's basement using those 2020 stimmy checks? Get real. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find stocks rise as Wall Street looks to close out strong first month of 2023. Was it a strong move? Pay Pal to lay off 7% of workforce to cut costs. General Motors, CFO on recession risk, we see continued strength. Wow. Okay, so the CFOs of these major companies are going out in mainstream media. And I mean, I'm sure that none of these mass media outlets have any corporate sponsorship at all. I'm sure this is totally objective and totally neutral. And the CFOs are going out on this totally neutral mainstream media and they're telling you we see continued strength. We think that the Fed is going to cool down a little bit. Inflation is a baiting. Okay. We've done some damage to the job market. But I think we've done enough I think the Fed is going to back down. Would you bet the farm on that because I sure wouldn't. Also, let's check this out. Exxon smashes oil majors earnings record with $56 billion in profit. Wow. So there's another oil company raking in record profit margins. You know, wow. Just it's so nice to see the billionaires doing so good. Just warms the cockles of your heart, doesn't it? Are you looking for more? Don’t forget you can find Sara on her blogs at causey consulting LLC dot com and at sara causey dot com. You can also read her content on Medium and Substack. On with the show!
Today it is Wednesday, February the first strange mixed bag of conflicting information. But you know, I think that might be the theme for all of 2023 a strange mixed bag of conflicting information. Look over here and go over there. It's great. No, it's not. Okay. The main news across the board is about the Fed. Over on CNBC we find Fed raises rates a quarter point expects ongoing increases s&p 500 gains on Wednesday as investors shake off the Feds latest rate hike that on falling inflation. FedEx is laying off 10% of its officers and directors amid cooling demand. The Fed just raise interest rates by 25 basis points why they'll stay high electric truck maker rivian to layoff 6% of its workforce as evey price war concerns grow. Over on Yahoo Finance, it's a similar scene. Powell says we can now say for the first time that disinflationary process has started. Can see like little angels flying around strumming on harps and they have beautiful golden halos. Oh, the disinflationary process has started. Well, that's great. I have not seen any evidence of that yet. But okay, sure. Right next to it, we find stocks rally after Powell comments on inflation. Well, I'm glad that the market is going back up. We also find homebuilder ramps up construction as demand recovers. Well. Wow. Just good news everywhere. Earlier today, over on the side panel for LinkedIn news, I took a screenshot of it and I'm sure I will blog about it at some point because you just can't make this stuff up, as it appeared at that point in time. Right under LinkedIn news, we find job openings surge to five month high. And then right below that we also read FedEx rivian match and more layoffs. Does that not seem weird to you? And we click on the Bloomberg article that they're drawing their data from about oh, All of these wonderful, beautiful, magnificent job openings. The title is us job openings surged past 11 million as fed zeroes in on labor. The little bullet points our December increase in vacancies led by leisure and hospitality ratio of openings to unemployed climb to near record 1.9. So in other words, we're still getting that narrative, that there's two legit open jobs for every one unemployed person. Now, we're also told in this article, the increase was the largest since July of 2021. And mostly reflected a jump in vacancies and accommodation and food services. Hmm.
You don't say? Now, do I think there are still open jobs that need to be filled and healthcare fast food? hotel, motel leisure, hospitality? Yes. Are those industries that typically have a high turnover rate? Yes. Do you hear that there's a nursing shortage basically all the time on the TV news? Yeah. If someone has been laid off and real estate, finance, big tech, HR, can they go to the nearest hospital and ask for an ER doctor job, or qualify to be a registered nurse? Can they make ends meet on a part time? Job in fast food or hospitality making 16 bucks an hour? Probably not. And I'm getting so tired of this BS narrative that they're all these open jobs. And nobody wants them because whole generations of youngsters are lazy. I don't buy it. I don't. And I still go back to the conversation that I had last year with a cashier who told me I took this job by default. I like it. And they're good to me. But I took this job by default because they were the only ones who called me back. I applied and applied and applied and I had heard all these things about labor shortage. No one wants to work cacao cacao. This was the only place that would give me a call back. Something is very fishy about all of this. Today, it is Thursday, February the second aka Groundhog Day. Apparently he did see his shadow this morning. So that means six more weeks of winter. I don't know of anybody that's happy about that. But hey, he's been wrong before. So take that as you will. Over on CNBC we find s&p 500 rises to the highest level in five months on Thursday as metal leads a tech comeback. Right next to that we find meta shares rocket 25% on pace for the best day in a decade. Wow. Well, I guess it's really good then that they had those layoffs. And last summer Zuckerberg said you could self select out the door as they were turning up the heat. Is that paid off for him? Mortgage rates dropped to the 5% range for the first time since September. So I guess we should just all go out and buy an overpriced house. Things are just looking so good. You know, earlier today, I saw a tweet. And I don't even know who it was from. It was just one of those things like Dude, come on. He was trying to push this idea that we're in a fake recession and that you should buy the dip. I don't think it was satire. I think that it might have been a bot or a paid shill that was pushing a very clear agenda because I'm like, I don't know that any sane, rational human being would be thinking that way. But maybe who knows. Coinbase jumps 20% After Federal Security suit dismissed. We also find pepper 80% of workers who quit in the great resignation have regrets according to a new survey. Oh boy, here we go. In this we find the great regret is the latest workplace trend to sweep the nation with the majority of professionals who quit their jobs last year wishing they could get a do over according to a new survey. 2022 was another record year for quitting. 4.1 million workers left their jobs in December, bringing the grand total for the year to over 50 million. roughly 47 million quit the year before citing higher pay and better working conditions as incentives for their exit. Now eight out of 10 professionals who left their jobs regret the decision. A new paychecks Study Finds paychecks surveyed 825 employees who quit during the Great resignation and 50 for employers to analyze the impact of the quitting spree and gauge employees job satisfaction. They found that mental health work life balance workplace relationships and the chance to get rehired All suffered as well. Some of the bullet points here are Gen Zers are struggling the most, no loyalty, no leeway, turning over a new leaf. So at the end we find as employees figure out how to turn over a new leaf William suggest starting with a fresh perspective about what you control. For example, you control having a trusted friend peer review your resume, you control making connections on LinkedIn, you control going to networking events, taking a night course to better your skills and giving yourself grace and your search. Williams also says that workers should try to avoid job hopping in the future to put stability back on your resume. And though things may seem bleak now, it won't last forever. The great resignation change not only the workplace, but also the minds of those seeking better work opportunities. The good news is that there's hope for job hoppers who have had a change of heart about their decision to resign. Many employers are willing to rehire people and improve their benefits to end quote. Maybe, as I've said before, even in the freelancing and gigging markets, things are slow. And when you look at the number of people who are submitting resumes, or who are turning in bids or proposals, it is astonishing. I've also told you before about a company that was looking for a full on HR manager with a Sherm certification and they wanted to pay 15 to 20 bucks an hour. But yeah, hey, let's have a happy ending here. Many employers are willing to rehire people and improve their benefits to maybe, maybe not. To me, this is one of those things, where would I personally bet the farm on that? No. There are some companies that will allow employees to boomerang back and they will make individuals who left on good terms a higher priority than individuals who are strangers to the company. But if somebody left on bad terms, if they said take this job and shove it, I'm out, and then they have to go back or they want to go back out of sheer desperation. How well is that going to work out? I think we all just have to admit we're in a squeeze right now. Feels like being in a vise grip, and it sucks. When we go over to fortune.com, we find Mehta may have spent more than $88,000 per person when it laid off 11,000 in 2022. Hmm. That's interesting, because now their stock is going up and everything seems to be peaches and cream. Something there's just not adding up. At least not to me. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find latest layoffs, Otah, Pinterest, and more. Where next for tech workers. US still lags on paid family leave last not a surprise anybody Big Oil is cashing in. That's also not anything surprising either. I wrote a blog about the juxtapositions between what's going on now and what happened in the early 80s. I'll drop a link to it in case you missed it and you want to check it out. But Big Oil cashing in was something else we see. Now when we saw then twas ever thus, Wall Street cheers meta earnings. So even though we're being told that they may have spent up to $88,000 per person, on the individuals that they purge, somehow it was all worth it. Because hey, the markets are really excited, Wall Street's happy. I feel like if nothing else, I'm just gonna go ahead and slip on my tinfoil hat here. I feel like if nothing else, this should be evidence of what I tell you that the companies answer to the shareholders to the investors to the board of directors. They don't answer to you and me. They don't care about what John and Jane Q Public down on Main Street, think about them. They care about the money. Central banks diverge on rate hikes. So when we click on where next for tech workers, we find as layoffs ripple across the tech sector, a number of which have been delivered in the form of surprise emails, where are the workers going? Vox reports that while it's too soon to tell where the 10s of 1000s of affected employees will land over the coming months, a number are already starting their own businesses. Meanwhile, we may soon see a larger share of tech workers employed outside of the tech industry in areas such as finance, manufacturing and healthcare and quote, okay, so in the same way that everybody in America is supposed to either work fast food, be a bartender, be a barista. We're now being told that a large share of tech workers could go to finance, manufacturing and healthcare when they still just be doing it work. Though I mean, is somebody who's been a computer programmer gonna go be an ER doctor now? No, you have to like be trained in medical school for that. This is just more fishy weird information I keep over and over again. I hear Poppy bush. It's roto economics. Yeah, it sure is. It's voodoo statistics, it's stuff that doesn't even make any sense. Let's just go and conjure up some stuff and feed it to the public. When we click on latest layoffs, we find despite a weekly avalanche of layoff announcements in tech and beyond, okay, okay, so that's how it's being framed now. And beyond a side note, we told you that it was going to only be big tech, but oops.
Government data suggests that it's still a workers job market. What new figures from the Labor Department show that the number of open positions rose to a five month high of 11 million at the end of last year. Hiring however, has dropped to its slowest pace in two years. No, Sherlock, I've been on the airwaves telling you that I've been on my blog telling you that these people are not in any hurry. None zippo, they will ghost you. They will say urgently hiring. We need a contractor ASAP. Please don't even put in a bid for this proposal unless you can start immediately. And then they sit back on the beach with a daiquiri and take their own sweet ass time. Nothing is going fast right now. If somebody tells you otherwise, in my opinion, they're either flat out lying to you or they are some extreme exception to the rule. The LinkedIn news team continues to follow these developments with the latest job cuts below. If you've been impacted by a layoff, find our best tips here. No, I don't think I will. Layoffs making headlines in February ongoing layoffs at Fidelity National Information Services. The FinTech giant known to many as f is now upwards of 2600 Bloomberg reports. OTA, which makes identity and login verification software will cut 300 jobs or about 5% of its workforce. Pinterest is letting go of about 150 employees, Rei is headquarter staff is getting 8% smaller, the outdoor retailer has laid off 167 employees or less than 1% of its total headcount and quote. Yeah, keep your head on a swivel. Be strategic about who you're listening to. Where are you getting your information from? When it hits your ear? Does it sound like hot air and hopium? Does it sound like somebody is trying to pump you up and make you feel good? Or do you feel like somebody's giving you the truth? I can't answer that question for you. Only you can do that for yourself. Today is Friday, February 3, the main news of the day, regardless of what venue you choose to read, is the jobs report because wow. Wowie Zowie somehow in the midst of all of these layoffs and people languishing on the market for months, the fact that your social media feed is littered with layoff announcements and people talking about how desperate they are for work, how tired they are of the interview process and being ghosted, et cetera, you are expected to believe that the unemployment rate is now 3.4%. So we've even ticked down from 3.7 or 3.5 to 3.4% lowest unemployment rate in like 50 years I just kind of can't you know, if we go over to CNBC, we'll find their standard chart of here's where the jobs are. Okay, so we find leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and government. When we go to the full chart we will find that below those three health care retail trade, construction, transportation and warehousing, social assistance and manufacturing. But yet we've also been told that manufacturing jobs and blue collar work have faced layoffs as well. And as someone who would be considered part of professional and business services I would love to know where in the hell the suppose the jobs were in January. Did you see them? Because I didn't I'm really really struggling with this. I can't make it make sense I'm sorry and I'm not gonna sit here and try over on Daily Dot there was an article posted titled I know you hate it but baby you don't want to be here. Job Hunter issues PSA to people with jobs. The byline reads I'm on indeed nonstop. Yes. This is what Those of us who are involved in the job market every single day have been trying to tell you whether it's a job seeker who's in the job market right now every day because they're looking for a j ob ASAP or it's somebody like myself, who is a subject matter expert in staffing and recruiting in the flipping job market every day for well over a decade. Where are these? Suppose it freaking jobs in business and professional services? What jobs are they? If I go back to Seinfeld, who are those people? I don't get it. In this article on daily.we Read a job Hunter on tick tock issued a now viral warning to employ people who want to quit their jobs because they don't like them. If you're thinking about quitting says tick tock user Dr. Scarlet Smash. Don't 100% Please do not quit your job. Scarlett says in the video which currently has over 200,000 views. I am not joking. When I'm trying to say I'm doing everything I possibly can. I'm on indeed nonstop and it's just dry. There are any jobs that are being posted. Not a single posting in my field was posted today. I am serious when I'm saying when I'm trying to say that the job market is so bad. And there's so many people out here right now that are jobless. She ads stay where you're at. I know you hate it. But baby you don't want to be here. Scarlets video comes after a wave of viral clips showing users applying to numerous jobs and receiving few if any callbacks. Some users claimed to have spent 7680 250 and 300 jobs only to get a lackluster response or even worse, no response at all. That said the true state of employment in America is a bit complicated. The official unemployment is relatively low. And some sectors such as hospitality, retail and construction have seen increases in available positions in quote, no people in the trenches are trying to tell you, I agree with what she's saying, you know, I've told you before about eating the dirt sandwich. Okay, I know that that is not a popular sentiment, we're all just supposed to FOMO and Yolo. And it's whatever. Kind of difficult to do that when you need to make rent, when the fridge is empty, and you're like, holy shit, I need to eat. These are adult decisions that we have to make sometimes. I'm not telling you it's right. Look, if you haven't figured it out by now, like I'm very well aware that the system is rigged. And it's rigged against the little guy. It always has been okay, let's be real. I'm not telling you. It's right. I'm not telling you I agree with it. It's all well and good in the moment it to blow off steam to go on social media and Rage Against the Machine and talk about how bad it all is like I applied at such an SOE company and they rejected me and so I'm gonna go on a tear on social media. And it's like, is that what's really in your best interest, though? In my opinion, I don't give you advice. I don't tell you what to do. I sit here and I opine for your entertainment only in my opinion, I would not want to do anything to cut my own throat. And I wouldn't go and start blasting people on social media and tagging them and being like, Well, I had an interview with you two weeks ago and shame on you and you ghosted me. I mean, I just I don't think that I would do that. Me personally, I wouldn't do that. You know, I had a situation where I put a bid in on a proposal, I was really excited about it. The phone conversation that I had with the manager could not have gone better. There was nothing in that situation. That was lackluster, on appealing, bad, nothing. And they ghosted me for two weeks, and then finally came back. And they told me oh, well, we just decided we're just not even going to do this anymore. It was almost like he, we decided for shits and giggles to put a proposal out and see how many contractors would bid on it and what it all looked like, but we're just not going to do it now. Was I frustrated by that? Yes. Yes, I was. Did I use some colorful language about it behind the scenes here at the house privately? Of course I did. Now, I'm not going to tell you the name of that company and put them on blast on my podcast. No, I'm not. I'm not I can brush the dirt off my shoulders and just move on to the next opportunity. There's no There's no reason to cut your own throat in an economy like this. And I think that's one of the things those of us who have been through a downturn like this before, we know, okay, we get it. Like, if you've got a job, you want to hang on to it. You don't want to blow through your savings or a severance package. You don't want to start playing credit card roulette. Like, just No, I agree with what this job Hunter is saying. All of these supposedly red hot jobs and people hiring in a hurry and 3.4% unemployment rate in my opinion, that is all bullshit. These numbers again, in my opinion, get manipulated. And it's generally done, in my opinion to support whatever neocon or Neo lib is in office at the time. Yall already know how I feel about this. I don't get into politics on here. What's the point? What's the point? I feel that there's a dimes worth a difference between the one and the other. So whenever I hear somebody Oh, when my guy gets in office, well, when we get those rat bastards out of here, and we bring in the new ones, oh, they're gonna be great. And it's like, really? What evidence is there that happening? It's like, they're all little piggies that are eating out of the same trough. How
have you not figured that out by now? But anyway, I'm not gonna go too far down that rabbit hole just suffice it to say these numbers give me such a headache. And those of us in the trenches are trying our best to tell you know, these employers are not moving fast. No, you can't go on indeed. And find a crapload of jobs in your field posted fresh, hot piping and fresh like it's 2021 No, that's not happening right now. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find jobs report tells markets what Fed Chair Powell tried to tell them oh, really well, Cal Sopris. You know, the Fed has not been shy. In telegraphing to you have what their agenda is. I don't know how much more it's gonna take. I'll read. Oh, dear. A lot of investors just learned again the hard way the old rule when someone tries to tell you something about themselves. Listen. On Wednesday afternoon, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said over and over again, we're not done raising interest rates. We're not finished. We're not expecting to cut rates anytime soon. Barring a complete surprise, we're not expecting to start cutting rates this year. We would much rather raise rates too high and keep them high for too long, then start cutting them a moment too soon. Wall Street didn't listen. Investors began penciling in early rate cuts risk assets boomed. NASDAQ was up crypto was up. Cathy Wood was up Michael The Big Short, burry actually deleted his Twitter account after his cell call looked so foolish herbs. January's blow out jobs report posted Friday morning showed non farm payrolls rose by nearly three times as much as economists had been expecting. No, the economy isn't slowing. No. The feds big campaign of interest rate hikes all last year hasn't shown up yet on Main Street, Jesus. And no, there's no reason to expect rate cuts anytime soon. If you want to know what these numbers mean, look no further than the money markets where people are betting on where interest rates are going to be. In the wake of the report Wall Street just have repeat halved its prediction of an interest rate cut this year, Thursday afternoon money markets gave a 60% chance that rates would start to come down by the end of the year Friday lunchtime, that was down to a 30% chance. Meanwhile, the market has now dramatically raised the likelihood that the Fed will raise rates two more times this spring. Thursday, Wall Street figured Powell would be one and done that he would raise rates one more time by point two five percentage points. And that would be it. Now the market is giving about a 60% chance of at least two hikes and maybe even three. The only real surprise is why this is a surprise. Oh can see that I don't follow fed speak as much and you don't say sorry. I'll concede I don't follow fed speak as much as the media's semi official interpreters. So I'm not as sensitive as they are to the various linguistic nuances that they claim to discover from pals conference. But as I wrote here, he seemed pretty clear to me he would now and especially after the last couple of years, much rather be the guy that held rates too high for too long in the future, then be the guy who cut them a day too soon. And yes, although he used the word disinflation a lot during his press conference, he also said that so far, it could only be seen in the prices of goods not services. What what goods are going down? I haven't seen a one of them. I almost said something really bad there. I haven't seen a single one of them going down. And observation that anyone could have made for months by visiting a gas station. All right. Okay. So the price of gas has gone down temporarily. In my opinion. I don't think it's going to stay down. Look at the record profits that these oil barons are raking in you think that gas is going to stay down forever. Give me a break. Give me a break. Okay, so the price of gas has gone down temporarily. Now eggs are still 20 bucks a carton, you have to basically go donate plasma and get a second mortgage. If you want to get like milk and bacon and eggs, that's what you're gonna have to do. But yeah, okay, sure. When the Fed chairman says he's going to keep rates higher for longer, who are you gonna believe Wall Street or your own ears and go? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. One question that I have is who benefited from this? Seriously, like, did somebody short some stock? You know, did somebody make a killing in the markets by telling everybody that it's time to get hyped up again? risk assets boomed. NASDAQ was up crypto was up. Hmm. I feel like there's always a money trail here. I don't know who it was. But I'm just wondering out loud did somebody short some stock? Did somebody hype the markets up artificially to make an absolute shitload of money? You know, told you about that tweet, I read where some, I don't know, bot, troll shill, brain, dead individual. I don't know what the situation was, was trying to convince people that the recession is fake, that the market is in great shape, you should buy the dip. And I'm like, what rational human would think that way? I don't know for that matter what rational human would think that we truly have a 3.4% unemployment rate, that there are two legitimate open jobs for every one unemployed person. Those of us in the trenches are trying to tell you, it's just not so. So when this author is like, well, who are you going to believe Wall Street are your own ears? I would say the same thing. Who are you going to believe mass media or your own reality? Who are you going to believe? Are you going to believe the Fed when they tell you that they want to see unemployment go up? They want to see wages stagnate? Are you going to believe in my opinion, the hot air hopium bullshit, sorry, excuses for journalists that want to tell you we are still in a workers market. It is still an employee and jobseekers market and oh, you can just hippity hop across the market, you're gonna find something fast and for top dollar, who are you going to believe? If all through last year you know, I said I felt like it was auspicious to get strategic about who you're listening to. Where are you getting your information from? It's way, way past that point. If you're still drawing water from these other wells, people telling you that the great resignation will go on forever and you can hippity hop across the market. If you get laid off. It's okay because you can find another job fast. Supposedly, all of these jobs happened in January for business and professional services. But people in that line of work are actively telling you I didn't flipping see it. Who are you going to believe? I cannot answer that question for you. I hope that you are thinking long and hard about that question for yourself. Before I go, one interjection I had to run some errands today. And I noticed something that looked really different from this time last year. I saw fewer cars in driveways and more cars parked at office buildings, office complexes, business parking lots, etc. I really think that more employers, just across the board have implemented the Lord Ilan, it's time to come on back. So even though you're being told that work from home is gonna last forever across the board. I'm not seeing the evidence of it. Even in talking to hiring managers, so so much now the attitude is we really don't want to deal with the remote work. Just they're gonna have to come into the office don't even send us anybody. You know, I told you I had a client who said remote work is a non starter for us. If they even bring it up. Like it's just no thank you. That's pretty brutal. If you ask me. Things just give it some serious consideration. Who Who do you trust? Who do you feel like is giving you good information? Is it the people in the trenches that are seeing this day in and day out boots on the ground, so to speak, or is it someone who's telling you that you need to Hush little baby because it's all going to be alright. Stay safe, stay sane. And I will see you in the next episode.
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