"Here’s how the second-biggest bank collapse in U.S. history happened in just 48 hours" -https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-how-it-happened.html
"Things happen slowly until they happen very fast." -Lynette Zang, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3y8yh1HnA5s
"If you wait to be 'officially' told something, in my opinion, you are waiting too late." -Sara Causey, repeatedly, to anyone who'd listen
"Expert warns stock market crash could come in a matter of days" -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwHjl9iGgiQ
Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here's your host, Sara Causey. Hello, Hello, and thanks for tuning in. In today's episode, I want to talk about the economic concept that things happen slowly until they happen very fast. Lynette Zeng talks about that repeatedly, in a recent video that she released, I'll drop a link to it, of course, I would encourage you to check it out. It's her take on the banking collapse that happened at Silicon Valley Bank, she does a great job of going through step by step with research and evidence to make her points on the pinned comment on that YouTube video. She says the second largest bank failure in US history and they are telling us to remain calm, you really need to take steps to get wealth protected, because nobody is immune to what could be coming sooner than most think. It is scary to think about. And I understand that people are more likely to tune it out, say, Well, okay, but Silicon Valley, okay, but this bank had venture capitalist, okay, it had big tech. I mean, maybe that happens in California, maybe that happens in big tech, but it would just never, and then you insert whatever, it would never happen in the Deep South, it would never happen in the Midwest, it would never happen in the northeast, it would never happen in the northwest. We're here in God's country, it's beautiful things are a slower pace. My bank down the road doesn't have a bunch of VC firms and big tech firms. We're just local, it would never happen to us. I don't give you advice, and I don't tell you what to do. I'm not an economist, a financial planner, or advisor. I don't tell you what to think or what not to think. If it were me, I would cordially invite myself to not get caught up in normalcy bias or some kind of exceptionalism. Well, it would happen to those people over there, but it would never happen to me. The other thing is, you don't necessarily know where your employer does business. You don't necessarily know if you freelance where your clients keep their money. What if you were freelancing, and you were depending on money from a client, and they were impacted by this bank failure or by some yet to come? bank failure? What then? What if that's your paycheck? And what if it just doesn't show up for a while, and you're living paycheck to paycheck? What if that is making the difference between whether or not you can feed your kids? I promise you're gonna care about it, then. But see, that's the thing by then it's too late. That's why people in the preparedness community like to say I would rather be 10 years too early than 10 seconds too late. Because when it's too late ipso facto, by its very definition, you're screwed. Because it's too late. The headline that we saw on March 10, on CNBC read, here's how the second biggest bank collapse in US history happened in just 48 hours. That's not a lot of time. We think about someone going to bed and everything is fine and dandy in their world, nothing seems amiss. And then they wake up. And everything's quite different. Oh, I'm not getting a paycheck this week. Oh, my employer had all of their funds tied up in that bank. And I'm screwed now to by proxy. Let's also keep in mind a headline that appeared on The New York Post, NYPD called Silicon Valley Bank branch as depositors attempted to full cash report says so I even though I'd like to put tape on my mouth about this topic. I typically do try to avoid getting overly political on the channel. I'm just thinking of individuals who think that anyone in law enforcement is above reproach, you shouldn't even ask any questions. They are there to serve and protect. I wonder how those people would feel about it. If they showed up to the bank to get their money out of that bank. And all of a sudden a police officer is in their face. I wonder if they might feel a little bit different. I wonder if they might sort of come to the conclusion that people have a libertarian nature already know to be the case that people in certain fields exist to protect the state not to protect the average john and jane Q Public. I'm just saying. In this New York Post article we find building managers at Silicon Valley's bank Silicon Valley Banks Manhattan branch reportedly called the police Friday morning, after a group of tech founders showed up and attempted to pull out their cash pull He's responded after a group of about a dozen founders went to SV B's Manhattan location on Park Avenue journalist Eric newcomer said and a substack post. One of the founders was former Lyft executive Dora Levy, who provided newcomer with text updates from the same. The incident was the latest indication of growing panic among investors linked to the tech lender which warned of a cash crunch this week. This sparked a run on the bank SVB blocked Levi and other others who gathered from entering thebuilding by around 9:
20am Eastern time building officials called the police and a pair of NYPD vehicles arrived. Leave I said the police were very friendly and instructed one person who didn't want to leave SBBs offices that they had to exit the building. New cover wrote. Very, very friendly Oh, the officers just left afterwards, according to levy, leave. I told newcomer that he went to the SBB branch after one of the institutions bankers told him to go and get a cashier's check from the New York office if he wanted to move his funds. We've I reportedly added that there were more founders coming every minute before the police response and quote, I kind of suspicion that if it hadn't been a group of tech founders on Park Avenue, that situation may have played out a little bit different. But at the very least, they put the kibosh on additional people coming up. They're like, Well, hey, if you show up, we'll just call the cops on you. Can you imagine that and and then it's your money. But Lynette Zeng does such a good job of explaining this concept that whenever you place your money in a bank, it's really not yours anymore. The transaction from a legal point of view, and a banking point of view, is such that the money you're depositing that actually belongs to you doesn't it belongs to the bank. And so they can use it to speculate they can use it for investments. And here's another little secret that you might want to clue into really freaking fast. There's not some secret vault somewhere where dollar for dollar the FDIC has every every dime of money that's supposed to be insured, insured. I think a lot of people picture that in their mind. Like there's some huge underground bunker like some huge underground mint where all of that money exists in duplicate form, so that they can just write in on a white horse like a hero from olden times and save the day, but I hate to burst your bubble. That's not the case. So even if you're tempted to say, well, it would just never happen here. It would never happen to me. Okay, California, okay, Park Avenue. Okay, tech founders, but it would just love Rob. Well, man. I think you're playing a dangerous game. I do. Over on Yahoo Finance, by way of fortune, we find SBBs collapse could lead to contagion among regional banks. But experts say it's not a systemic risk to the entire financial system. Oh, do they? Do they? You know, I'm getting really tired of the so called economists, so called experts, people who just lie through their teeth. They save whatever they're paid to say they're Grifters. They might have the education and the credentials, I'm using air quotes your credentials that look flashy on paper. But when you read their quotes and their knowledge out in the mass media, it's not doing you any favors. I think at some point, you have to trust your own eyes and ears, you have to pay attention to what's happening around you. As I've said before, if the mom and pop shop down the road that employs 20 People has a layoff of eight of those people. It's not going to make the nightly news. But it's definitely having an impact on the community. Now imagine if a plethora of mom and pop shops in your community have layoffs like that. It's not going to make the nightly news but it is going to impact your community. If a regional bank fail if some local banks failed, can you imagine the panic the heat in the streets that would occur? By the time you're officially told something, in my opinion, you're waiting to wait and you're putting yourself in that panic situation. When we think about the stores pre pandemic, what things look like at a Black Friday sale, where people would be willing to commit murder over a flat screen TV or Tickle Me Elmo doll. The way that people behave during the pandemic when we were rationing things like toilet paper, paper towels, hand sanitizer hand wipes. And you would see people in the grocery store ready to cut somebody's throat over a package of Charmin? Can you imagine how it would be at a bank? It's scary. It is. In this article we read, and the cracks begin to show the startup focused Silicon Valley Bank collapse this week, it was the second largest bank to go under in US history. Only behind the 2008 Blow up of Washington Mutual during the global financial crisis. See, there's another reference to 2008 Oh, how I would love to have every realtor and every broker lined up in front of me that told me we would never have another 2008 The loans are solid, the system is different. All of these reforms, housing prices are only going to go up. People are doing great how I would love to have all of those eight holes lined up in front of me so that I could just sling mud pies at them. Oh, there's really no reason because I'm sure they're not even in business anymore. They've washed out. They got foisted on their own petard because they went around lying to everybody. And maybe at the end of the day, the person they lied to the most was themselves. Regulators of the California Department of Financial Protection and innovation closed SBB and took control of its assets. Friday after depositors, which were mainly struggling tech startups began a run on the bank, the FDIC has been named as the receiver. The trigger came when SBBs parent company SVB financial failed to raise over $2 billion in emergency capital on Wednesday. To strengthen its ailing balance sheet. shares of the company plummeted more than 60% the following day and trading was halted Friday after another double digit plunge during pre market hours and quote. So, again, we want to really think about how quickly these things can happen. A snowball rolling down the hill that appears to be tiny at first that turns into an avalanche. As well as the idea that there's not some secret vault there's not some secret underground mint where dollar for dollar and dime for dime, all of this money exists and duplicate. Okay. The fallout for the venture capital world from SBBs issues is likely to be severe. The bank has said it had relationships with more than 50% of all venture backed companies in the US Holy smokes. And some 93% of his $161 billion dollars in deposits are an insured. Some 93% of its 161 billion in deposits are uninsured. If those accounts get frozen deals can't get met software can't get paid for these kinds of delays, even by a few weeks can really be catastrophic for business. One venture investor told fortune Thursday in quote 93% and deposits are uninsured. Think about that. If you don't hold it, you don't own it. Now I'm not telling you to go pardon the dryer I have so much laundry to do. It's insane. I'm not telling you to go stick your money in a coffee can like great grandma or put it under the mattress. I'm not telling you to do that or to go foment a bank run at your local bank. I don't tell you what to do, or what not to do. You have to make those decisions for yourself. I'm merely reading the story and connecting the dots. So 93% of its $161 billion in deposits are uninsured. What would you do if that was you? Or your business or your employer's business, and there was no paycheck coming. See, in my mind, it's better to wargame those strategies out ahead of time than it is to be blindsided by them. Better to be 10 years too early than 10 seconds too late. Let's also take note that as I've also warned you many, many times the fat cats know what's coming. This stuff doesn't hit Wall Street and the bankers and the power brokers and the politicos Just out of nowhere, just a bolt from the blue. No, that's what happens to John and Jane Q Public but it's not what happens to the power brokers svbc Oh sold stock before collapse. Less than two weeks before Silicon Valley Bank had sold part of its portfolio at a $1.8 billion loss and was trying to raise more capital CEO Greg BECKER So $3.6 million worth of company stock. Bloomberg reports. Regulators shut down silicon bank Friday amid liquidity worries and a run on deposits the biggest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Wonder if we're gonna see that movie again. Pretty sure we will till the stunning collapse has at least one notable investor calling on the government to consider a highly dilutive bailout of the bank and quote, well, they might get bailed in. Some of those uninsured deposits may never ever, ever go back to the people to whom they actually belong. They'll just do like what they did in Cyprus, you're just gonna get shares of the bank. So you know, good luck with that, I guess. Hmm. Also worth noting that Silicon Valley Bank employees receive bonuses hours before government takeover. And the TLDR key points we find Silicon Valley Bank employees received their annual bonuses Friday, just hours before regulator sees the failing bank, according to people with knowledge of the payments. The payments were for work done in 2022, and had been in processed days before the banks collapse. These people said on Friday svbc Oh, Greg Becker addressed workers in a two minute video, in which he said that he no longer made decisions at the 40 year old bank According to the sources and quote, so that also sounds like a hot dumpster fire. You know, and I'm not trying to disrespect anybody who put the work in at the bank last year. I'm not trying to even intimate in the slightest degree that any of this is an employee's fault. What I do want to say is, if your money was in that bank, and you needed it to make your mortgage payment, or to pay your landlord, the rent, you needed it to make the car payment, you needed it to feed the babies. How is it going to feel to you that the CEO sold stock before the collapse? 3.6 million worth of company stock. So clearly, I think it's a fair assessment that didn't happen on accident. Who does that just at random? And then you're not going to feel great about the employees receiving their bonuses, and then being told oh, well, I mean, come on. Now. They did the work last year, the payments have been in process for days. Don't be like, you know, let him have their bonus. You can eat tonight, who kind of like Screw you anyway. Because you're the little guy, let them have their bonus. Let them eat cake, go eat lentils and take the balls. And then you have the CEO addressing workers in a two minute video. The freaking bank is collapsing. And you're gonna release a two minute video. Basically, just to say I'm no longer in charge here. Wow, this definitely is a situation where you go to bed one night, and then you wake up the next morning and all hell has broken loose. 40 year old bank. So we're not talking about Johnny Come Lately, hate the bank has only been in business for a couple of years. super risky. What were people thinking? You had to know that was a bad idea. You had to know it could have gone south. I mean, I really hope that this is not coming to a theater near you. But I think you have to be prepared for the possibility that it could be. We're not saying that it is. We're talking about the possibility that it could be. And then how are you prepared? To deal with that? If as we saw on Yahoo Finance by way of fortune, it could lead to a contagion. It could be a contagion that spreads through the market even to regional banks. Are you prepared for that? In the event that you go to get your money out and they call the freaking cops on you? To shut that shit down? Are you prepared for that? Because that's the deal. Legally speaking, it's not your money anymore. You put it in there, you gave it to them. You know, we have this naive idea about vaults you know, sort of like the imaginary scenario that the FDIC has a giant vault underground where dollar for dollar and dime for dime, everyone's deposits are matched. We have this idea of the bank as volt. And again, I'm gonna give a lot of props to Lynette Zeng, because she dispels this myth. The banks use this money for their own purposes. They make loans they do deals and speculations and any more money isn't even real cash money in a lot of cases. It's not gold, it's not silver. It's not cash money. It's digits on a screen. It will be even more so whenever the see b b C's takeover, because there's people that are out here having a laugh. Oh, the Fed needs to step in. Oh, the FDIC needs to step in. Oh, big daddy government's going to save us it's going to all be okay. Oh, corporate America. Oh, Wall Street. All of these fat cats and cronies that all collude together. They're going to come together and solve the problem. They're a lot smarter than the average working class person. They're gonna figure this out. I don't think that they're particularly motivated to I don't and I talked about that on a blog post that I released on Sunday morning. I think that we have to get past this idea of Oopsy. Daisy. This just happens on accident, these boom, bust cycles, golly, gosh, who could see them coming? I just can't imagine that this just keeps happening. You know, or then you have people that go out in the media and say, well, the Fed is full of academics or the Fed is full of out of touch old farts that don't know how to run the economy anymore. We need business people or we need capitalists, or we need this. We need young young, fresh meat, whatever, whatever, whatever, whatever. See, unless you're talking about something like maybe Ron Paul, they're not going to come out and say what we need to do is abolish the f ed. Stop it. Stop it. And anytime that man, how far down that rabbit hole do I want to go? Anytime that we have had somebody in the highest office who got serious about getting us off of fiat currency, having currency that actually is backed by something tangible, getting us away from the power brokers controlling everything behind the scenes, that has not ended? Well, for those individuals, they are no longer with us. And they were they were struck down before their time. I'll just leave it at that. If you want to go down that rabbit hole further than you know, there are other people who explain it a lot better than myself. But yeah, if you ever want to look into the history of the FTD and why it's so difficult for any leader to actually unbridle America from that system. Yeah, you'll you won't sleep so well at night for a little while. Nick Gurley, who is the CEO and founder of re venture consulting, which is a real popular real estate channel over on YouTube, he tweeted on, I think it was March the eighth, yeah, March the eighth warning, the money supply is officially contracting. This has only happened four previous times in the last 150 years, each time a depression with double digit unemployment rates followed. And then he has like a scary emoji face. And he has the graph here to show it. And he shows what unemployment was like during the Great Depression, as well as the 1870s depression in the panic of 1893 1921 depression, and then where we're at right now in relation to those other depressed economies. And again, you can look at something like that and say, Well, okay, that was then this is now it will just never happen again. You can do that if you want to. I wouldn't, but you could. And then you might get steamrolled. Responding to his own tweets, Nick writes, contracting money supply plus inflation is a nasty combination, because it means there are fewer dollars floating around in the system to pay for the higher prices. At some point, this system breaks and a deflationary crash occurs. This is exactly what happened in the depression of 1921. Not the Great Depression. This occurred after World War One and the Spanish flu, where there were years of high inflation and money supply growth and then WHAM 11%, deflation and the unemployment rate skyrocketed. All it took was a minus 2% contraction in the money supply in 1921, to call us that deflationary depression. And we're already at minus 2% contraction today in 2023, suggesting that the resilience of our economy and the current inflation might not be as strong as people think, hold up. Of course, there's still lots of money floating around in the financial system in 2023. Money supply or m two is about 35%. higher today than it was pre pandemic. And then he shows it's an increase from $15 trillion to $21 trillion, which that amount of money is unfathomable. But historical record is clear depressions slash deflation don't need a linear decrease in money supply to occur. It just needs to be a little bit, a two to 4% contraction year over year, and then problems occur. Lots of people seem to think that this inflation will last forever, like the one in the 1970s. But remember, 1970s inflation was bad because money supply kept growing it never contracted, which is why we had a decade of inflation now is very different. And then he presents another chart to show money supply and inflation, what that looked like through the 1970s and then where we're at now. And when you look at the money supply, all of that fiat currency that got printed up in 2020 Oh my god it it's almost off the freaking chart. Now the Fed is doing quantitative of tightening. This qt is what's causing the money supply to contract and 2023. Everyone's focused on rate hikes, but it's the Qt slash money supply they should be paying attention to because of Qt continues at its current pace, the money supply will contract by more. Just as all these big recession warnings are piling up just as inflation continues to be a problem. That's how you get a system melt down and a deflationary depression. But of course, a deflationary depression in 2023, or 2024 is not a guarantee. The government will of course see what's happening and might attempt to print money again since stimulus checks and reignite inflation and the economy. History also shows that wars are periods where the money supply grows a lot like World War One and World War Two. If the US were to get into a war, hopefully not, the money supply would grow again and inflation would last longer. To summarize this tweet thread the money supply is contracting in early 2023. Each time this happened before deflation slash depression was the result. stubbornly high inflation has made many blind to this risk factor. high chance the Fed over tightens and causes recession. If history repeats itself, we could be in a de flash deflationary recession slash depression, prices of a lot of things would go down houses, rent commodities, maybe even wages, I would button and say certainly wages would, of course, unemployment rate would likely skyrocket maybe to as high as 10%. All button again and say it very well could be higher than 10% right now. So how high could it go? A hell of a lot higher than that, I would guess. But the government could also step in and save the day. More money printing, like what happened during the pandemic, which would increase money supply, growth and sustained inflation, a war would also be a situation where money supply growth and inflation would increase and quote, yeah, you know, I've said before, I've warned you many times, if the military industrial complex say we need to fire up the engines of war we're going to war was somebody damnit then that's what's going to happen. There are also people who feel that what really helped the Great Depression come to some kind of an end and get the economy booming again. Remember, they're calling a whole generation. It's called Baby Boomers. What facilitated that? was World War Two. Could there be some engine of war that fires up? Sort of like pay no attention to what's going on in the economy, we've got a war to fight. We've got to all pitch in. We've got to ration supplies, everybody needs to go to work. Everybody needs to be in service to the country right now. Because war? I don't know. What I do know is that if the military industrial complex says we're going to war dammit, then we are going to go to war with somebody, anybody somewhere. Will that be enough? To pull us out of this economic mess that we're in right now? That's the part I don't know. On Fox Business. There was a video published titled expert warns the stock market crash could come in a matter of days. And this was published sometime last week. In the write up we find the bear traps report founder Larry McDonald reacts to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is testimony to Congress, previews the February jobs report and discusses a potential stock market crash. Again, we're talking in potentials here. We don't know for certain what's about to happen. But I think we can theorize at least, that unemployment is higher than 23.6%. Inflation has not abated every time you go on the grocery store. It's crippling. The other day, I was looking at a package of fish sticks. That used to be two bucks. It's now eight $8 for a package of fish sticks. But yet, you're supposed to believe that inflation is like eight or 9%. But you're seeing price hikes like that and you know, it's higher than any eight or 9%. We have this toxic stew oh and and now we've got bank failures, people not being able to get their money out the cops getting called on them. Let's just go over to Wikipedia for a minute and revisit the Great Depression. The Great Depression 1929 through 1939 was an economic shock that impacted most countries across the world. It was a period of economic depression that became evident after a major fall in stock prices in the United States. The economic contagion there's that word again, began around September and led to the Wall Street stock market crash of on October 24 or Black Thursday. It was the longest, deepest and most widespread depression of the 20th century. Between 1929 and 1932, worldwide GDP fell by an estimated 15%. By comparison, worldwide GDP fell by less than 1%. From 2008 to 2009. During the Great Recession, some economy started to recover by the mid 1930s. However, in many countries the negative effects of the Great Depression lasted until the beginning of World War Two devastating effects were seen in both rich and poor countries with falling personal income prices, tax revenues and profits. International trade fell by more than 50% unemployment in the US rose to 23%. And in some countries rose as high as 33%. cities around the world were hit hard, especially those dependent on heavy industry, construction was virtually halted in many countries, farming communities and rural areas suffered his crop prices fell by about 60%. Faced with plummeting demand and few job alternatives, areas dependent on primary sector industry suffered the most economic historians usually consider the catalyst of the Great Depression to be the sudden devastating collapse of US stock market prices starting on October 24 1929. However, some dispute this conclusion seeing the stock crash less as a cause of the depression and more as a symptom of the rising nervousness of investors, partly due to gradual price declines caused by falling sales of consumer goods as a result of overproduction because of new production techniques, falling exports, and income inequality, among other factors that had already been underway as part of a gradual depression unquote. So if we think about a stock market crash, which hopefully God doesn't happen, but if we think about a stock market crash in the middle of a money contraction, banks failing, unemployment being higher than any 3.6%, how does this shake out? I mean, whatever the nomenclature, recession, depression, 1970s era stagflation. It's just frankly, not looking good. I don't tell you what to do. I don't give advice. I sit here and I opine for your entertainment only, I can't tell you what to do, or what not to do. The most I will say is that I hope you're paying attention. I hope that none of this is catching you off guard. I have recorded many Saturday broadcasts at this point. To try to keep you aware of what's going on. Not just generally speaking in the news, you can do that for yourself. But to use my position, as someone who has a front row seat to the job market every single day, as I have for over a decade now. Well over a decade, I can read the ebbs and flows very well. I know when things are heating up, and candidates have picking choice. I know when things are slowing down, and the balance of power has gone back to corporate America. And I think based on what I'm seeing in real time, there are some job seekers who just have not gotten the memo. They just don't get it yet. By the time they get it, they're going to be screwed. By the time they connect the dots that the great resignation is over with that unemployment is a lot higher than 3.6%. And that the balance of power has decidedly gone back to corporate America. There aren't tons of open jobs that pay a living wage and have a legitimate benefits package just right for the picking. They're just growing on trees. You just pick them like a beautiful apple. Have everything that you want champagne wishes and caviar dreams. By the time they figure it out. It's gonna be too late. And they're going to be sitting unemployed. I hope they're not also sitting in a breadline like the Great Depression. I hope not. But man, some of these people, they just don't get it. And I don't think they're going to get it. I know that sad. I know that that sounds really terrible. And I'm not saying it from an elitist point of view. Like they're not smart enough to understand it. No, they are smart enough to understand it. I think unfortunately, they've been sucked into a system where they're being lied to. They're being mollycoddled. They're being pacified. And they're being distracted by bread and circus. No one is telling them, hey, you need to be preparing. You don't want to get steamrolled by what's coming. Back on August 15 of last year I post I published the bonus episode who is coming to save you. And in the last Saturday broadcast, I talked about how in my opinion, if you can't look in the mirror and say I will save me. I'm not waiting on the government to bail me out. I'm not waiting On a guy down the street to help me out, I'm not going to call my mom and dad or try to bum money off my adult children. I Dammit, I'm going to be the person who saves me, I will figure this out. If you don't have that level of self confidence, if you haven't worked out your strategy, it might be too late for you. It might be. I understand that's negative. I understand that's not the hot air and hopium that some people tune in to hear. But I assume if someone wants that they've left a long time ago. This is not the place for them. I hope that none of this is catching you off guard, and you've done whatever you feel is necessary to be prepared for the coming struggle because I think it will be a struggle. Stay safe, stay sane, and I will see you in the next episode. Thanks for tuning in. If you enjoyed this episode, please take a quick second to subscribe to this podcast and share it with your friends. We'll see you next time.