✔️ ICYMI news, 6/5-6/9.
✔️This recession is like Brigadoon - it will one day simply rise from the mist as if from a mystical land. 😆
✔️It's easy to say, "I'll quit and go elsewhere" when you're employed. But if you get out on this job market with no prospects, you may find out you've bitten off more than you can chew.
✔️The cronies scratch each other's backs and take care of each other, not us.
Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here's your host Sara Causey.
Hello. Hello, and thanks for tuning in. Today it is Monday, June 5, I'm back in the saddle had a much needed podcasting hiatus. I'm back, I'm ready to roll. Or at least I thought I was because as soon as I opened Yahoo Finance to start looking at the day's headlines, sifting and sorting trying to figure out what's true, what's false, what is being telegraphed to us ahead of time, what's just an obfuscation? I just had like an immediate headache. And I'm going, Oh, I'm so glad for the break. Because sifting and sorting through this nonsense can be overwhelming at times. And I'm still debating at what point am I going to cease and desist on the Saturday broadcasts. And I've always had it in my mind that I would do that whenever some official whether it's somebody at the White House or somebody at the Fed, whenever some official finally trots out and says we are in a recession. And yes, the economy is suffering. At that point, there's really no reason for me to continue warning you about the absurdity of all this. And I know this is gonna sound very pessimistic, very fatalistic, but I just think it's reality, by the time that some official does trot out if they ever do, if they ever do, I may be the one that's on a fool's errand, because they may never come out and officially admit that we're in a recession and things are very bad, that that day may never come. But if it does, when the facts are so undeniably obvious to everybody as to what's going on that they cannot gaslight the public anymore. If you haven't already prepared, it's going to be too late. In my opinion, it's going to be too late. I already think the job market is in bad shape. The great resignation is long gone, that is long over. I was on the leading edge of that, too. I was one of the few people, if not the only person involved in HR staffing and recruiting that told you Hey, that great resignation for white collar work, it is oh, verb. There are not two legit open jobs for every one unemployed person. And if you're somewhere that you think is good, might make sense to plant some roots there and get ready to hunker down for the long haul. I don't give you advice, I don't tell you what to do. But if it were me, that's the direction that I would go in, I would try to become indispensable to that organization. I would not hippity hop across the market and LARP that we're still in 2021. I mean, plenty of people from 100 hopium. Crowd get on social media, and they still do that. But if you haven't prepared if you're not financially ready, you don't have some, you know, if that makes sense to you to have some extra food in the pantry to have a game plan. What would we do in these worst case scenarios? If we went through great recession 2.0, what would that look like? How would we cope with it? If you don't already have those plans in place? By the time some goofball official comes out and says perhaps the recession has started. I don't know what you're gonna do. There's times in life when being devil may care and flying by the seat of your pants is a good thing. Not every moment of your day needs to be orchestrated. You think that the human animal needs some spontaneity, some variety, some fun, more talking about economic cataclysm, however, and how you're going to pay your bills and how you're going to stay in a house. I don't think that being completely frivolous is the right way to go about that. I think in my opinion, which could be wrong. You're better off being prepared than scared. You're better off being prepared than blindsided. And I think unfortunately, we just have so many people that their mind has just gone soft. It's like the piece of Swiss cheese and instead of trying to fill the gaps with something intellectual, something that will help them they just want to get on social media. They want to think about celebrity gossip or oil gossip and yeah, again, at the risk of sounding very pessimistic, very fatalistic. I think that we're going to see so many people get steamrolled in this economic Don't turn I really do. And I think the fat cats and their cronies are going to unmercifully Rob those people. They're going to take their houses, their vehicles, they're going to call in their debts, it is going to be brutal prediction alert. That's what I see coming. I could be wrong, and I hope that I am. But I just think about the number of people who are in this mentality of ignorance is bliss. The economy doesn't affect me, the job market doesn't affect me. Why should I learn about any of these things? Screw it, I'll go back to tick tock. And it's like, they just have no clue what's coming. And some of those people, quite frankly, they're probably in your circle of friends. They're probably family members. And I'm sure that right now, there's an image coming up in your mind of at least one person, you know, who fits that description. And when the Poopoo hits the fan and a big, major way, they're going to show up on your doorstep, or they're going to call you on the phone. And it's going to be well, what are you going to do for me, this terrible thing be filming, I had no idea that I'd be part of a layoff. I had no idea that the current unemployment rate wasn't really 3.7%. I thought we still had all these open jobs. I thought the great resignation was still going on. I thought I'd be able to find something quickly. I had no idea that I would be victim of a foreclosure. I had no idea that the food banks were running low on inventory, and they're going to look at you like, I want you to bail me out. As I've said before, it's not you and me. That gets to benefit from a bailout. The cronies and the idiots up there on Wall Street. Yeah. Oh, yeah. They're too big to fail. They're too important. They're the ones that get bailed out. They can take on toxic debt. They can completely avoid any kind of moral hazard. But you and I cannot. So in my mind, if Aunt Betty or Uncle Joe, somebody comes along that really, you know, they spend their time screwing off, let's just call a thing a thing. You know, I said 2023 was going to be a year of just raw honesty and authenticity, let's call it what it is. People who spend their time screwing off. They've got all the time in the world for Netflix and for social media. But they don't seem to have the initiative to want to figure out what's going on in the world around them, and how they can get on some kind of solid footing to deal with it. I'm thinking back to one of Jocko willings podcast where he talks about, you've got to figure out the rules of the game and then learn how to play it. You had damn well better, in my opinion, is somebody that's still sitting around in law Land God, they're so far behind the eight ball even now. Even now, when this supposed recession that's on the horizon out there somewhere that's supposed to hit and like q3 or q4 of this year, wink, wink, nudge nudge. By the time that happens, those people are going to be even further behind. And I'm just skeptical that there's going to be much of anything to help them. I really am. I hope I pray that I'm wrong about that. But I just I think that people who have been tuned out for all of this time, when they finally decide to tune in, and by the way, it'll build they'll decide to tune in because something bad will happen to them financially. They'll lose their job, they'll be unable to find another one. They'll get evicted, they'll get foreclosed upon the car will get repurposed, they'll have to start paying those student loans again because Oh, looky there and the old meal live in office lied to you. Kill some freeze. When something bad happens, that's when the reality will sink in. That all of this crap that we've been told in the mainstream media was exactly that it was crap. All I can say is I just I hope you're awake. I hope you have your game plan. I hope you have your war games strategized and made out because I just by the time that we're officially told anything that resembles accuracy, man, it's going to be bad. All right, Yahoo Finance, Apple unveils long awaited mixed reality headset, just in time for the Harare method. So you can sit in your hovel after you become part of the useless class. You could sit in your hovel and go on your VR headset and eat your cricket burgers and just go into an alternate reality because that's so much better than your pathetic miserable life anyway. s&p 500 Nasdaq rise, oil jumps after Saudi output cut. The earnings recession is coming and stocks aren't ready for it says Morgan Stanley. And this we find the earnings recession is still coming. Here we go. The recession that's out there looming like the boogeyman, it's out there on the horizon somewhere. The earnings recession is still coming, and it's going to be worse than anyone thinks. Morgan Stanley said in a new note to clients on Monday. Okay, so this is at least worth some of our attention because it's a note to clients. This is not something that they said to you and me in the unwashed masses. This is something that they're saying clients. The firm sees a meaningful earnings recession this year with earnings declining 16% By the end of the year before experiencing a sharp rebound in 2024.
I don't know about the sharp rebound part. An earnings recession, probably the sharp rebound next year. See, we're still getting that. We're still getting the narrative that it's going to be a shallow recession. It's going to be a slow session, you're going to feel pain, but it's going to be brief. Right? Right. Just like how inflation was transitory remember that crap. And Wall Street trader made a $7.5 million windfall on a suspiciously timed investment ahead of a surprise debt limit, do concession oil, just color repaint or stuff like, of course this happens. We live in crony capitalism. Of course it happens. In this we read, a debt ceiling deal surprisingly greenlit the mountain valley pipeline, a trader bought 100,000 call options on the pipeline's owner days before that was announced. The identity of the mystery trader is unknown. And some think it's an insider trading concern. Oh, really? You think? Again, I go back to Gordon Gekko. I don't throw darts at a dartboard sport. I bet on sure things. I've told you. I told you I told you. I feel like Gordon Gekko is not just this representative of 1980s Wall Street. 1980s yuppies, 1980s Manhattan. I really think that Gordon Gekko is an embodiment of the system. He sort of like what if we crystallize the main elements of the system down and made it into an anthropomorphic beat? That's Gordon Gekko. I don't throw darts at a dartboard. I only bet on sure things. And then he sends but out to collect information so that he can have insider trading. This happens and it happens and happens and happens. Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel says investors hopes of a Fed pause are pushing stocks higher, and skipping a rate hike would lower the risk of a US recession. They're trying anything right? Commercial real estate is melting down fast. Elon Musk warns home prices will be the next to crash. We will see you as I've told you before, I'm not really observing significant price reductions in my part of the Midwest just yet. A few, a few here. And there. There's one particular property I'm thinking of, we're not interested in it. But the owner originally priced it like back in 2021. When all the FOMO and the Yolo. And the churn and burn was going on. The owner had originally priced it at more than $800,000. Spoiler alert, this place is nowhere near an $800,000 property. And now they've come down to 375. So yes, in that one instance, I could say there's been a significant price reduction. The problem is it's still not a 375 property. It's probably 250. So the people trying to sell it are still not even really within the parameters of sanity. It's just It's crazy to me, could home prices crash? I think that's possible. It may not happen everywhere. But certainly the artificially inflated and manipulated bubble that we saw in 2021. In order for the average buyer or potential buyer to want to get back in the game, the prices will have to come down significantly. I remember one of the broadcasts I talked about a guy I saw on YouTube, who was like, oh, prices are never going to fall that far. There might be 10 to 15%. But they would never come down like 50%. And I'm like Sir, you need to wake up. And His attitude was, Well, do you know what would happen if prices fell by 50%? Do you know how catastrophic that would be? And I'm like, do you do you? That's like the example I just gave a property that in reality is a 250k property being priced at over $800,000. And then they come down over the course of time to 375 and act like they really deserve a pat on the back and it's like you're still nuts. In a case like that, yes, the price is going to have to fall not only by 50% but more than 50% that yeah, that's why some of these so called economist, so called experts, they they get out on social media or they get quoted by Some so called journalist and I might just because they have a credential of some time doesn't mean squat to me. You'll know the tree by the fruit it bears. Bill Ackman once Jamie diamond to run for president. God. Here's what Warren Buffett Bill Clinton and others have said about the JP Morgan chiefs political potential. God God jako super young. In this we find. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon hinted that he'd consider getting into politics once he leaves banking. Oh, I'm sure because what's the one I'll have to go back and bleep myself Hang on just a second? Of course he would. Because what's the freaking difference? Six of one half a dozen of the other getting into politics was he leaves banking. He's never really gonna leave banking. He knows he's gonna like the people at the agency. Even when you're out you're not really out. You don't ever leave. It's like the freaking Hotel California. Same thing here. You talk English though. Oh, I'm gonna I'm gonna step down from the bank and get into politics. two totally separate things boring. God, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon hinted this week that he would consider getting into politics once his banking career ends. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman promptly suggested that he should run for US President. It's not the first time the billionaire banker has toyed with the idea of seeking office. There has been speculative chatter on Wall Street about a diamond presidential run or political involvement at least for years. Obviously, it's crossed my mind because people mentioned things to you and stuff like that time and told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, when asked if he would consider public office or accept a cabinet position. I love my country and maybe one day I'll serve my country in one capacity or another. He said oh, yeah, I'm just gonna I'm gonna leave it right there for today. I feel like Scrooge I'll retire to bedlam. Today, it is Tuesday, June 6. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find more doctors embrace gig work. A growing number of doctors and their working prime are foregoing conventional hospital staff roles in favor of temporary or gig work. The Wall Street Journal reports why they cite better pay and flexibility much like nursing colleagues who switch to gig work as the pandemic exacerbated burnout issues in the healthcare industry. But there are drawbacks and challenges for locum tenens, or temp doctors. They have to be fully credentialed wherever they practice, their potential liability differs in each state, and they need to quickly acclimate to new workplaces and quote, wow, so what is that going to do for the healthcare industry? I don't know. As a freelancer myself, who gigs I'm certainly not coming down on anybody for choosing gig work. I'm just thinking like, what are the issues that are already endemic to the industry? You're talking about hospitals being short staffed, and then more doctors saying screw it. We just want to be gig workers, like, what does that mean? And I'm grateful for telehealth, believe me, because I think there are times when you already know what's wrong, or it's something where you don't have to be physically in person. In a doctor's office with people that are sick. Maybe you you're not sick, you just need to have a prescription refilled or like one time I did telehealth because I had a hematoma on my leg, I got a really, really bad bruise. And the way that it looked was scary. I didn't know like, is this a blood clot? What is this? And so being able to do telehealth and not put myself at risk to get that. But just being able to like put the phone camera down there and say, Okay, here's how I got this bruise. I've never had a bruise like this before, what is it? And then have the doctor say, Oh, well, that's a hematoma. Here's what that means. Here's how you take care of it. Things like that. Awesome. I don't want to go to the hospital over a bruise. And I don't want to have to go into a crowded doctor's office with sick people hacking their lungs up over a bruise or a rash, or I already know that I have an ear infection or I just need to get a prescription renewed things like that. But I mean, what does this mean for being able to go to the hospital? I mean, if you think that you're having a heart attack, or you think you have a blood clot or an embolism or something, you're gonna want to go to the emergency room, and I just worry about what happens if there's just not anybody there to help you. I find it scary. You know, and earlier today on my lunch break, I watched this documentary I will, by the way, record a full podcast episode about this because it's a very interesting topic, and it needs to be talked about. The documentary is titled essential, a documentary about America's working class and the challenge of income inequality. And one of the things that they talk about a lot in this documentary, because they're interviewing, in particular, the Southwest carpenters union, they do talk about the decline in participation in unions. And then what that has meant for wages, they also look at, here's what the average house cost in the 1960s. And here's how people could have one income and still be able to buy a house and have a middle class life back in the 60s. And it definitely made me think back to my grandparents, like, I remember them telling me about how, when my grandfather was finished with his service in Korea, he used part of his GI Bill to be able to go back to school, and then he used part of it for them to be able to buy their house to think their house was like $16,000. And I know, I know, some wise and Heimer is going to write in and be like, Yeah, but that was appropriate for the time. I get that. And I'm not going to sit here and tell you that my grandpa went out and got a job and made 100 grand, but only had a 16k house. No, I'm not saying that at all. What I am saying is that something is clearly freakin wrong. If now, people are working multiple jobs, and there's all this stuff about side hustles and have your main job then have two or three side hustles because that's what it's taking to MFE live. That's crazy. That would have been unfathomable to my grandparents having to work all of these different jobs plus have side hustles. I mean, I just I look at how different things are even within just a generation or a lifetime. It's It's amazing the way that the gyre seems to be moving faster and faster to use one of Yates metaphors, but they talk about this decline in participation in unions and companies really just being able to exploit people and treat them any old way they choose. And then I'm thinking about that. And then I'm also thinking about more doctors are turning to the gig economy. I'm like, we're just getting farther and farther away from this idea of United we bargain divided we beg by and I know this is gonna be a controversial comment. I'm gonna get hate mail anyway. So here we go. I know how to hit the delete button. Like it to me, it feels very orchestrated, right? To push everybody into the gig economy. To tell people, you're just going to have to take care of yourself. You shouldn't expect a pension, you shouldn't expect a union you shouldn't expect a living wage. We're just going to toss you out onto the ice of Gotham. And hopefully you can take care of yourself. And I get it that it probably sounds hypocritical for me to even be talking about that because I get the thing is I have chosen to do that. I sort of jokingly say to my friends that I managed to have both a capitalist and a communist revolution at the same time when I left corporate America is labor entitled to the wealth it creates, hell effing Yeah, it is. I was tired of making other people wealthy. And then having them bossed me around and act like I was some second class citizen. I'm a minority. And I felt like I sometimes got discriminated against because of that. I'm also an introvert. My brain has some amount of neuro divergence to it, I don't, the way that I sort of process patterns. And the way that I can see things, it's very clear. And it's very obvious to me, but I've come to realize over the years that things that are very clear and obvious to me and the data analytics, and the patterns that I can spot and pick up on are not so obvious to other people. So I just always felt like I was a right foot stuck in a left shoe. I hated it. I wanted to be able to make more money for myself, or at least keep more of the money that I made. You have to pay the tax man obviously, that's another topic altogether. But damn, and I got tired. I got tired CARC of having to line the pockets of people who merely tolerated my existence. That really pissed me off. So I'm not saying nobody should gig we should all work for companies and have unions. What I am saying is that if somebody doesn't want to gig, they don't want to be a freelancer. They don't want to have to manage their own benefits and take on all the risks. They just want to plug in and accompany at work and be able to live not have to work three or four jobs and be able to work one job to the best of their ability and have health insurance and dental and surance and be able to keep a roof over their head. That's how it should be. Another thing they point out in this documentary is it's like these low wage workers are dependent on survival benefits from the government. So it's like these supposedly low prices, and the low wages that we let these assholes in corporate America get away with, we're all footing the bill. And by when I say we were all footing the bill, what I mean is me and you, John, and Jane Q Public, the unwashed masses, the taxpayers. The people that when the fat cats think about us, they have to hold their nose. We're paying for all of that. But it's these corporate assholes that are getting away with it. They're still they're skipping us with the bill. And I just really think that that's pretty unacceptable. It needs to be talked about more than it is. So I've seen an article like that, and I'm like doctors are deciding to freelance now. What is the world coming to? Wow. Speaking of What's the world coming to over on Yahoo Finance, we find global economy to slow to lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to the World Bank, in my mind, any comparison to 2008 2009 It's worth paying attention to. I've said all along, I don't know exactly what shape and color and size this economic downturn is going to take on. I personally would not be surprised if it bears some resemblance to what if the great recession had a baby with the 1982 recession? I do expect high unemployment and I do expect high inflation. And I don't think any of these problems will be solved overnight. Nor do I think we should really expect a solution from the rat bastards that created the problem in the first place. Just Just saying. Also, not on an unrelated segue, Dave Ramsey faces $150 million suit for promoting a company accused of fraud. In that we find Dave Ramsey, a Christian radio host and personal finance guru faces on $150 million lawsuit filed by some listeners of his show who alleged that they were defrauded by a timeshare exit company that advertised on his program. The suit filed in the US District Court for the Western District of Washington and April claims Ramsey received more than $30 million Damn, between 2015 and 2021 to promote timeshare exit team on the Ramsey show. The Washington State based company which now operates as Reed Hein and Associates alleged allegedly promised to help customers terminate their timeshare contracts which are notoriously difficult to exit and quote, bam. $30 million. Wow. Wow. Well, you know, something else that I've said many times before, like Grifters are gonna grift and you need to be very thoughtful and strategic about who you listen to. and for what reason? Because not everybody out there has your best interests at heart. I'm thinking of the Scripture, you know, this, this article lists him as a Christian radio host. I'm thinking of the Scripture, not everybody who says Lord, Lord is going to heaven. Okay, let's, let's think about this here. $30 million, is a lot of money. Now, maybe not if you're somebody like Jeff Bezos or Bill Gates, but for the rest of us. Yeah, that's a truckload of cash. I would imagine, you know, just thinking about the average person, if you gave him $30 million, and said here, we want you to say good things about our company. I think a lot of people would go for that. Be strategic about who you're listening to. and for what reason, you will know the tree by the fruit it bears. If someone's making predictions, and those predictions come true, or are they wrong more often than they're right. I saw something earlier. I think it was on CNBC about some hot stock tip that Jim Cramer supposedly had. And I'm like, the only thing that I would do with that is the opposite. Now, that's just my opinion. And I could be wrong, but I wouldn't trust him either as far as I could throw him. Also on Yahoo Finance today, a new CEO says employees can't work remotely after all, and they revolt. All we'll do till now we'll actually have to scoot over to the daily beast.com to get the gist of this article, because unfortunately, young finance takes you to the Wall Street Journal where I hit a paywall, and we really can't read much more other than there were all these people who believed that they were going to be work from home forever. So they sold their cars they moved, they expanded a home office. And now, today's a. This is another reason why I have on my blogs and I'm on this podcast on a regular basis telling you if you don't hold it, you don't own it. And I don't care if your manager, the CEO, the guy down the cube farm from you said, Hey, no, I think we're going to be work from home forever and everything's fine. Believe that at your own risk. If you don't hold it, you don't own it, and you don't get to make the final decision. That's just reality. So in the analogous story over on The Daily Beast, we read, the new CEO of a Los Angeles based insurance company has triggered a major backlash from his staff, after reversing what employees understood to be the company's permanent remote work policy. According to The Wall Street Journal. Employees, a farmers group reportedly raged on an internal staff social media platform about Raul Vargas is decision last month after many people had made substantial lifestyle decisions, including to homeschool kids or look after elderly relatives like corporate America cares. Is that a freaking laugh? based on the assumption that coming into the office would remain voluntary. This is seemingly a power move that is frankly disgusting. One worker reportedly wrote I sold my house and moved closer to my grandkids another set of corporate America don't care. They don't give up. So sad that I made a huge financial decision based on a lie. Hmm. Gosh, you know, it's almost like all corporate America, it was a giant war. Vargas reportedly emailed staff to say he believed in office work was important for collaboration, creativity and innovation. Right. A spokeswoman for the company said around 60% of the company's 22,000 strong US workforce would be affected, and that workers had been afforded three months to make necessary changes before the new policy goes into effect in September. Wow. Yeah. See, this is the reason why I am so passionate about trying to shine a light on the dark underbelly of corporate America trying to tell you the truth, as I see it, talking about the uncomfortable shit that other people in HR and recruiting don't want to talk about. Do you have an RTO survival plan? Do you have a job loss survival plan? Do you know how you would handle it if the job market crashed? Because see, here's the thing. It's very easy to get out in the mainstream media and be like, well, this Maverick news got up there. And he said, My God, we're not going to be worked from home anymore. You're coming back and there was a rebellion? Therefore, it's gonna be like that everywhere. We're gonna have that nationwide strike against our to and I'm like, yeah, no, you're not. Because here's the deal. The people that made major life changes on the word of a company that they do not own or control. If they all said, Screw it, we're out of here. What are they going to find on the job market waiting for them? See, I know the answer to that question, because I'm in the job market every single day, as I have been for over a decade. They're not going to find sunshine and roses, they're not going to find two open jobs. For every one unemployed person, they're going to struggle like hell. And if their goal is to find another remote job, they're really going to struggle like hell. Here's what's going to happen. They'll ask up, they'll have a mat and they'll quit. And then they will struggle to find something that's remote only, and they'll wind up taking another job. Finally, when they can get one they'll take another job that's completely in person, but it's closer to where they live now. Don't believe me? Just watch. Today, it is Wednesday, June 7, the main headlines of the day seem to be centered around the stock market, millionaires hoarding cash which kills a breeze and then the guy over at CNN that got fired after apparently not being there for me real significantly time. So I want to take this segment of the broadcast to really reiterate some things that I've talked about before. If you're a frequent tuner, enter, it's not going to be anything brand new to you. Earlier today, I published a blog post that I titled you believed a lie. And as I've said many times before, and I will say it again, if you don't hold it, you don't own it. subtitled the post I'm sorry that you did but you believe the freaking lie. Sub subtitled corporate America don't care. They really don't. I was thinking about that Tim McGraw country song the highway don't care where he's like the highway don't care about you, but I do. Yeah, I think that that could Just be our euphemism moving forward are sort of inside joke with one another that if I say the highway don't care, what I'm really saying is corporate America doesn't care. They don't give a flying foot. They don't, they don't. You haven't clued into that just yet. I'm sorry, if you made decisions, because someone told you in the company that they would be work from home forever, or remote friendly forever. And you took them at their word. I'm sorry for you that you did that. We do not live in an era of someone's word being their bond anymore. We don't. And in fairness to the argument, we can say that happens on both sides of the table. It happens with the CEOs and fat cats in corporate America. But it also happens with job seekers and candidates tend. Ghosting is still fairly terrible. I will say that it's not as bad as it was in 2021, and 2022. And I don't think that's a surprise. I don't think that's a coincidence. I've posted to that leaked memo from the intercept more times than I can count about the balance of power going back to corporate America. I also sat down with the Washington male and gave them an interview about the great backlash. You see, we had the great resignation. And I think now you're not only seeing the fact that in my opinion, okay, the great resignation is dunzo for white collar work. And it has been for quite some time now, in spite of the hot air and hope you have a bullshit crowd that want to tell you otherwise, for white collar workers, it's done toast. I think not only do you have that going on, but you also have a backlash, like an active backlash and active recoil against the great resignation. Now, it's like the economy is not in good shape, the job market is not in good shape. And if you haven't figured that out yet, we're gonna put a boot on the back of your neck and make you eat some dirt so that you really figure it out fast. And in in this interview, which I'll drop the link, so you can read it in its entirety. But in this interview, they asked me, in your opinion, the great resignation is finished. Oh, yes. And it has been for quite some time now for white collar workers, quite frankly, corporate America has not been shy in saying that it wants to hold the balance of power again, when you have collusion between corporate America, Central bankers and Capitol Hill, who do you think is going to ultimately prevail? John and Jane Q Public are the rich and powerful. Is there a backlash against it? They asked me and I responded, I definitely believe so. I think we can say there was a great resignation. And now there's a great backlash against it. The economy has boom and bust cycles. Sure. But I think at this point, we see some CEOs really taking a sort of impish Glee in punishing employees with RTO mandates and conditioning jobseekers by putting them through the wringer during the interview process. It's terrible. Now you can believe that or not believe that the choice is up to you. I'm in the job market every single day as I have been for over a decade, I have a very good finger on the pulse of what's happening in real time. And I can also read the ebbs and flows pretty damn well. I don't mind tooting my own horn. In that regard, if you sat me down and asked me to do rocket science, I would suck. If you sat me down and asked me to perform neurosurgery, I would suck. But when it comes to reading the ebbs and flows of the job market, and being able to see that first instance of pull back, the first instance that the market is letting up or that it's contracting, I'm damn good at it. I am that. That's my Bellwether. That's what I know how to do.
So you can choose to believe what I'm saying and to go and find the information for yourself, come to your own conclusions, or you can live in some kind of hot air and hopium alternate reality. This is on my mind, and I intend to write an exclusive for my other periodical, the job market journal about what I'm calling job market denial. Because some people are so far in denial, and they have their head so firmly planted up their backside, they're probably not going to make it. This will be the economic downturn that ruins those people. And I am sorry for that. I hate that for people. This crony capitalist system is so jacked up and it's so rigged against middle class and working class people. It benefits the fat cats and their cronies on Capitol Hill but it does not benefit you and me. And it pisses me the hell off. When I see people that just do They're like the old cartoon of See no evil. Like, if I put my hands over my eyes, and I don't look at you, then maybe all of this will go away and I can continue living in denial. And I'm like, those are going to be the people that get totally effing steamrolled. I've made a comment, I'm not going to get into where all of this was. But on a social media platform, let's say I had made a comment on somebody else's post. And a person that I believe to be a man splinter. In my opinion, this person struck me as a man Splinter, decided to counter my argument with not even really a counter, it was just like, I wanted to come across as being a No at all. That's how I interpreted it. Because I talked about how the hunter and hopium crowd are still going out on social media, in spite of all of the evidence, all of the observable real life evidence to the contrary, you still have the hot air and hopium crowd going out on social media telling everybody the job market is great. 3.7% unemployment rate to open jobs for every one unemployed person. If somebody's not working right now, it's because they're lazy, bla bla, bla, and this guy who I assume it's a real man, I don't know. However, there are so many bots, and it paid AI programs. I don't know. I really don't know. But this person who appears, I guess, to be a human man wrote back well, the job market is still hot in some unjust industries and or regions. And I was like, God, it would have only been better and more mansplaining. If he had said, well, actually. I just thought, yeah, you're not you're probably not make it, you're probably not going to make it because if you are so focused on, I want to be right, I want to look at somebody else's comment about the job market. And I want to be right, I don't care if the facts are on my side, I just want to be right, damn it, you're probably not gonna make it, in my opinion, which could be wrong. But you know, there's going to be some people that get wiped out in this all all jokes and all laughter aside, there will be people who get wiped out financially from this, and they they're not going to recover. There are people that got steamrolled during the Great Recession that never fully recovered. When you look at how many people live paycheck to paycheck, and they're just one unforeseen expense, or one emergency away from homelessness, that is scary. So I think about like, Okay, is it really worth your time, dude, to try to be a right fighter on social media? Or might it be a better use of your time to get prepared to make some sound decisions and to meet with a financial planner, get some investments figure out an alternate way of making money, I mean, instead of trying to look for women, and mansplain, to them might be a better use of your time to look at the evidence and then get your own house in order. I mean, I'm just saying a lot of the trolls and the mansplain errs, who argued with me last year and the year before that we were not in a housing bubble. And we would just never see anything like 2008. Again, these loans are so solid things are just great. The banks are so much more honest. Those people are gone. They go I don't hear from those dumbasses anymore, they're gone. And the prediction that I want to make, I'll make it here first. But I intend to also make this on the job market journal. My prediction alert for you is that the same types of people or bots, are now making similar absurd arguments and excuses about the job market. Don't believe me? Just watch. And they'll dry up and blow away. In the same way that I think it's for most people irrefutable that we were in an artificially inflated housing market back in 2021, and the amount of FOMO and yellow and absurd prices that we saw, it just wasn't sustainable. We're going to see a similar dynamic play out in the job market. In fact, it's already playing out. And I think to live in some sort of bizarro denial about that is not helpful. It doesn't benefit anybody, including you. If you are listening to this and you're like, Yeah, I have been a job market denialist I don't know what it's going to take for you'd wake up. And I don't know, at this point, I mean, in the same way that there's certain things only God's going to know, I don't know how far behind the eight ball you are either. Do you have an RTO Survival Plan roughed out? Do you have a job loss Survival Plan roughed out? If you freelancer you own and operate your own business? Do you have some kind of alternate revenue stream? Maybe a Plan B, C and D shored up so that if plan A goes away for a little while you have some way of making money other than a Ponzi scheme or a pyramid scheme? Do you have something sane and legal lined up that you can do? See, to me it's a much better expenditure of time to answer those questions than it is to get on social media and pick a fight with somebody or try to mansplain to somebody about their own area of expertise. Pardon me, I needed to take a drink there. But to use the phrase does your Come on man. So on that note, when we go over to the side panel for LinkedIn today, we find remote work reversal sparks anger. Oh, yes. Employees at farmer's group have expressed outrage after the insurers new CEO reversed the company's remote work policies, the latest clash between executives and workers over in person mandates. I'm going to butt in here and say, as I did really in this blog post that I published earlier, you can imagine that when it comes down to John and Jane Q public versus corporate America like this David and Goliath battle, you can imagine that John and Jane Q Public are going to win, that there really will be this nationwide strike against RTO. And there won't be any scabs that cross the picket line. And John and Jane Q Public will win the day. You can imagine that if you want to my question for the people who do that is very simply this. What if you're wrong? If I'm wrong in my pessimistic predictions, I will happily get on the air. And in the same way that I had my voiceover guy record that jingle about me warning you and telling you, I can very easily have him record another jingle saying Sarah needs to eat crow this time, because she called this one roll. I will admit, I got this one wrong. There was a nationwide strike, everybody stayed home. They were ideologues about the whole thing. And John and Jane Q Public won the day, and we can all work remotely now forever. Amen. I will happily eat crow on that. I would love it. If that happened. It's just I don't think that that's the way that this is gonna go. In tomorrow's podcast episode when I formally break the hiatus and come back. I'll be talking about Oliver Stone's movie JFK. And my overarching conclusion that you're not going to beat the system. You're not. And if you think that you are, you need only look at what happened there as proof positive that you're not going to beat the system. If you want a more recent example, let's say you can look at what happened in the month that falls between December and February. On the day that is numbered between a five and a seven. And you'll see what happens. I fought the law and the law one, that's what's gonna happen. Well, it's the same thing with corporate America and that damn it. That's one of the things that I try to drive home is that all of these little piggies that slosh around in their troughs? They're all in collusion with one another corporate America Wall Street, they can come up with some agenda that they want and then have their cronies on Capitol Hill push it to they can you and I can't but they can't. That's yet again why I remain convinced in my conviction that some nationwide RTO strike or a big big rebellion where everybody stays home and nobody crosses the picket line. I just don't see it happening. I'll continue to read. California based farmers told employees last year that most would remain remote workers. The Wall Street Journal reports leading some staffers to move cities or sell their cars but CEO Raul Vargas announced last month that a majority of employees would need to be in office three days a week from September and about face that led to a flood Have angry messages on the company's internal social media platform. Vargas told employees that in person work was needed to foster collaboration, creativity and innovation in quote Bri tours. Yep. So in, in the blog post that I wrote, I pulled some quotes from several different sources, The Daily Beast, the New York Post, Ben, Zynga. And the some of these quotes include workers saying things like, this is a power move, and it's disgusting. I sold my house and I move. I'm sad that I made a huge financial decision based on a lie. And I'm sitting here like, Yeah, I'm sad for you, too. I am. But guess what? Corporate America doesn't care. They don't care highway don't care. They don't care. They don't care if you moved. They don't care if you don't have child care, elder care, pet care. They don't care if you made a huge financial decision that is now based on a lie. They don't care. You you need to wake up to reality. Because see, I think that these people in the hot air and hopium crowd, I really believe some of them are paid shills. I think some of them are probably bought some pieces of AI programming that aren't even real humans, but I think some of the actual humans aren't paid effing shills, they are paid to be like the Pied Piper of Hamelin, to lead you down a pathway that is gonna take you nowhere. And then when you go bankrupt, guess what? The fat cats and the hyper elites take your stuff. Jared a Brock has an excellent article about how the hyper elites are fiending for a recession, because they want to take your stuff. If you don't adequately prepare for this, you're probably going to get screwed. And I know this is tough love, which a lot of people don't want to hear. A lot of people want the fluffy lies and the nonsense rather than something that really cuts them to the bone, but helps them. So if this is not something that you can hang with, you're in the wrong place. I don't want to be here all day, which I could be because when I really get fired up, I feel it. Yeah, I just want to give you that tough love that, in my opinion, is all it is. I don't give anybody advice. I don't tell anybody what to do. I just sit here and I opine for your entertainment only. And I make my observations. If somebody is still fooling around with these hot air and opium people, in my opinion, they're probably not going to make it. In my opinion, their stuff is going to no longer be their stuff. They're gonna lose their house, they're going to get evicted, they're going to lose the car, they're going to default on loans and credit cards, and they are going to be screwed royally. And then I'd be sitting back going but wait a minute, I was told 3.7% unemployment rate, I was told to open jobs for every one unemployed person. I was told that the economy was okay. I was told that we weren't even in a recession yet. I was told that a recession might not even happen. And it's like, why did you believe that shit? Use common sense. Please, if you're hearing things on social media, or out in the mainstream media news, which by the way is corporate controlled? If you're hearing these things that do not match with objective reality, you need to question what you're being told. So see, I don't care if some man's planer wants to try to fly up my keister and tell me Well, actually, in some places, the job market is still robust. Well, you have fun. You go right on ahead. You have fun with that and you let me know how that works out for you. But because I'm going to get my house in order and be prepared because I don't really want some fat cat coming in here taken what I have worked hard for. I don't have much, but I don't want to lose it to some hyper elite asshole because I failed to prepare. Because I failed to read the tea leaves and I listened to a bunch of Yahoo's that don't even know what they're talking about.
Are you looking for more? Don't forget, you can find Sara on her blogs at CauseyConsultingLLC.com and at SaraCausey.com. You can also read her content on Medium and Substack. On with the show.
Today it is Thursday June 8 on Yahoo Finance we find billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller warns there are more shoes to drop, and says Silicon Valley Bank was probably the tip of the iceberg. I agree with that. I hope that that turns out to be incorrect. I really do. But after we had these three major bank failures, and then we were told it's okay The wound is not bleeding anymore. This is self contained. Oh, and then remember our old buddy, Dave Ramsey, they will play y'all. Like, okay, great grandma's bank with that has her $50 savings account and Timmies paper route money. It's fine. If you worry about all of this, you're just being foolish. Yeah, huh. Yeah. Because we heard all of the same kinds of calm down little baby, Hush little baby type statements in the lead up to the great recession. We were told repeatedly that everything was fine. Nothing to see here. People move along, move along. Until the crap storm was so big. It was like a crap tsunami. People couldn't ignore it. Everybody knew that the economy was suffering. Everybody knew that unemployment had shot up. I would not be at all surprised to see something similar play out this time around. I don't know. As I've said many times, I don't know if when if or ever some official whether it's talking heads in the mainstream media or whether it's somebody at the Fed somebody in the White House. I don't know if anybody will ever officially trot out and say, Okay, we're in a recession now. Okay, unemployment is high. Okay, there's not two legit open jobs for every one unemployed person, you can officially panic. Now. I don't know, if that will ever happen in this particular economic downturn, I have no idea. I do feel like based on the observations of how things played out during the day, they want you to panic when they want you to panic. They want you to calm down and shut the EFF up when they want you to calm down. That's like this whole RTO push. If they want you to stop playing, then that's what you do. And you get your ass back in the cube farm. Whereas if they want you to work from home and panic and sanitize the outside of your grocery bags, then that's what you're supposed to do. Whatever the overlords tell you to do is what you're expected to do. So I don't know what the strategy is here. I don't know if there will be a point in time where someone trots out and officially summons panic, or if that just never happens. And they gaslight everybody into thinking that we're not already in a recession right now. I don't know. The most than I will say is that for me and my family, we're just trying to stay on our toes and be prepared for Come What May because there are so many different ways that this could play out. I'm just not seeing any of those scenarios being super optimistic. In this article, we read Stanley Druckenmiller fears a recession is on the way are really after more than a year of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve have failed to quash inflation. The famed hedge funder who now operates the skein family office said Wednesday that despite the economy's recent resilience headlined by a low unemployment rate and positive first quarter GDP growth, he believes a hard landing is inevitable. All button and say yeah, hard landing is inevitable, and I think it's going to suck. I think we're already in a recession. I don't believe in this nonsense that there's some mystical recession that's out there somewhere on the horizon. When will it be here? We don't know. It's a little bit like that. That Beckett play Waiting for Godot? We're waiting for the recession. Right now. We're in a recession in my opinion, we have been I don't think it's a surprise to the central bankers that the rate hikes have failed to quash inflation. I just don't think that any of this stuff hits them by surprise. I think it's all orchestrated and it's all planned headlined by a low unemployment, right? Hmm. Yall already know what I think about that. Our central case is there's more shoes to drop, particularly in addition to the asset markets economically, he told Bloomberg Wednesday. For years now, Druckenmiller has criticized Fed officials for blowing up an asset bubble in stocks, real estate and other sectors after the global financial crisis with their easy money policies. And even after the Fed switched stances, and started raising rates in 2022, leading to a dismal year for markets, he believes there's more downside ahead. That wasn't the bubble popping in quote. I have to agree. Now on that, we were on the same page. Easy money, quantitative easing, get your money for nothing and your job loss for free. Yeah, a stock market bubble or real estate bubble even though even though plenty of realtors and brokers told me we were not in a real estate bubble All right. Thank God I have common sense. I feel bad. I really do. I really do. There are times when I get frustrated by people not wanting to think for themselves. But at the same time, I have compassion for someone that just flat out didn't know any better. And they got taken for a ride. They listened to some slick salesy realtor who told them, we're not in a bubble, you've got to do this. Now, if you don't do it, now, you're gonna miss out, this is the last chance Express, and they believed that, or they got sat down with some mortgage broker, who told them, these loans are solid, this is not 2008 Everything is going to be fine, and they believed it. Meanwhile, I was hearing plenty of stories about people with too high of a debt to income ratio, or they were hippity hopping all over the market during the Great resignation. So they didn't have stable employment, per se, still getting approved for a mortgage for some absurdly overpriced home. Do you really think I mean, could you sit there in good conscience and say to me, I don't think that we will ever see a consequence for that. If you can, okay. Good luck. See, I think that more than likely, I want to be careful here. But more than likely, as these houses begin to go into foreclosure, which is not an overnight process, I would say that's more of a lagging indicator, because a foreclosure doesn't happen overnight. It doesn't happen the very first time that somebody makes a white payment, or the very first time that somebody misses a payment altogether, it's a process. So I think it's a lagging indicator. And I think that by the time we start to see a real job market crash, because the I would agree with Druckenmiller that the bubble hasn't completely popped yet. I don't believe it's completely popped for the job market either. So as we begin to see more people losing their jobs, and some of those people, unfortunately, having bought homes that they really can't afford, you're gonna see a wave of foreclosures. And then when that happens, I believe that these hedge funds and these real estate investment companies and fat cats will start to buy up more property. You've nothing to do VB hippie. That's a real quote. And I think that that's part of the goal. I think part of the end game is to turn everyone into a nation of renter's. And to rent everything, rent your refrigerator, rent all of your streaming services, rent a bicycle, rent a car, rent a TV, like you're not, you're not going to own anything, you're just going to get these credits or CBDCs and have to pay for all of your rental property out of that.
And I think also, I'm sounding super dystopian here. I don't care anymore. You know, if that's not your cup of tea, turn this off. But I think you have a lot of people in the younger generations, not everyone to be clear, don't get into the everyone. No one always never crap. I think you'll have a lot of people in the younger generations who will go along with that. I'm thinking again, of Whitney Webb saying Americans are slaves to convenience. And we are the thing of it is America is a really easy scapegoat. I have noticed that as I've been studying and cramming for the sports nutrition certification that I want to get. It's very easy to point out America. People are too sedentary, they don't get enough physical activity. They don't get enough vitamin D and sunshine. They don't eat properly. They eat too much fast food and they drink too much soda pop. I mean, I believe me, I get it. I'm an American, too. And there have been plenty of times in my language lessons and in my conversation practices with people from other countries where it's been like, yeah. Dobro push all over America. bedico. Like, yeah, that's that's how things are here. There's a fast food joint everywhere you look and tons of soda pop and all kinds of streaming services where you can sit and eat junk food and binge watch TV all day and really not ever move like yes, that all of that's true. However, America is not the only place that has an obesity crisis. America is not the only place where you could sit and eat junk food, and watch TV all day and never really move. I think that that's becoming more and more of a global problem even though America's is easy to point, the finger of blame at and get scapegoated a lot. I think it's a global condition more so than just oh, that's America, the decadent west. And I think that you will have young people, whether we're talking about this sort of American slave to convenience idea, or whether we're talking about Western world slave to convenience, in general, you'll have people that will go along with that. As long as I can have my Netflix as long as I can have my tick tock, as long as I can have my cell phone, it's whatever. Or if someone has a food addiction, it might be as long as I've got my soda pops. As long as I've got my fast food and my pizza, I'll go along with it. Again, I understand that that probably sounds very pessimistic. That that's just my opinion. And it could be wrong. You know, but I sort of categorize this in the same way that I do these LARPers that want to imagine the nationwide strike against RTO. You're going to try to fight the law, and you're going to find out that the law is a lot stronger than you. There was a guy that lives down the road. That was telling me the story one time, and this is very much anecdotal story. Then I know somebody who knows somebody who knows somebody, one of those type stories. So he's telling me about this guy, who supposedly, I have no idea as to the veracity of the story, but supposedly, he's got a bunker, and it's full of canned goods and ammo. And he's just waiting for the apocalypse. He's he's very much in the doomsday prepper category. He's waiting for the apocalypse, the end of days, and all of Western civilization will collapse at one time on the same day, apparently, somehow, and this guy will be the Overlord. He'll have his little fiefdom there in the bunker with the canned goods and the ammo. And if anybody comes to try to take his stuff, he'll be prepared. And I looked at this guy, and I said, Are you old enough to remember all that mess that happened in Waco? And he said, Yeah, barely. It happened when I was a kid. But But I kind of sort of remember it. And I'm like, well, your friend would do well, to remember what happened there. You're not that's the thing. You're not going to. I just, I do not see these delusions of grandeur that people have working out. I just, I'm sorry. I think that we're past the point of these power to the people, we can really affect change. Who yet again, I say, Yeah, sure. I'm thinking also of Lauren Burr. Lots comment about Obama going off to the University of Chicago drinking the neoliberal Kool Aid, and all of these people thinking that hope and change and he was going to get in office and really change something. We were going to see a true departure from this authoritarian fascistic regime that we saw when Oh, W and chick Damian were in office. And then all he did was not only carry on their legacy, but he actually exacerbated it. And then people were all butthurt and disappointed, and it's like, what did you really expect? I think that that's part of how we are being led down this path, is you'll have politicians that will get trotted out, you could certainly make the argument that Orange Man was one of them. On the right side of the spectrum. You had somebody like Obama on the left side, supposedly, and then you had somebody like the orange man on the right side, supposedly, there's going to be all this change, going to drain the swamp, hope and change the audacity of hope we're gonna we're gonna get rid of all the cronies and the small brats. Yeah, huh? Nope. Not gonna happen. It's not going to happen. I think we just have to do the best that we can to figure out what is the next phase of the game plan that these cronies have that they're planning to do to us and just try to survive, try to have a happy life, have a happy family and do what you can to stay safe and stay safe. That's really all you can do. But these big ideas and LARPing whether it's I'm going to LARP that I'll live in a bunker and be an overlord one day or whether it's I'm going to fight all of corporate America. I'm going to sit and have a one man revolution against return to office. Okay, you go right ahead. Good look. I don't recommend it. The Hey, you got to do what you got to do. Speaking of which, over on LinkedIn, we find Google doubles down on RTO. I wasn't planning to play it on this episode. But I think I've got to.
Sure did. I've warned you about all of this. Been on the blogs have been on the podcast I've been telling you. This whole RTO push is not going to go away. You can't close your eyes and wish it away. This is the here and the now. Google is toughening up its hybrid work policy sharing plans Wednesday that it will crack down on employees who haven't been coming into the office three times per week, according to internal memos viewed by CNBC. While the tech giant had previously announced plans to bring employees back to the office from April last year. It will now track how often employees Bajin and include in person attendance in employees performance reviews, it will also send reminders to employees with frequent absences. That sounds like high school doesn't it? Like you'd have to have I don't know what it's like now. But you know, back in the day, you'd have to have your parents call and let the receptionist know or the attendance officer know that you weren't going to be there, we're going to send a reminder about your frequent absences. In a company email Google's Chief People Officer Fiona Ciccone, said, there's just no substitute for coming together in person, even already approved remote workers at Google as being asked to consider switching to a hybrid work schedule. If they live near an office. I'm going to button again and say, I've got a friend and his spouse is going through a very similar scenario at her job where the powers that be are telling everybody you need to come on back. But yet he still has this idea that because she was hired to be remote, she's going to always be remote and they'll never either pink slipper or give her some kind of ultimatum like Lord Ilan, and I'm sitting here thinking, dude, you better wake up. There is no such thing. As always remote, they promised. All you need do is look at what's going on with farmers right now. If you don't hold it, you don't own it. I get to sit here and say, No, I'm not coming to your office. I'm not doing business travel. I have a working farm and ranch. I have special needs animals that depend on me. I did. Because I own the company. And I freelance I'm not somebody else's employee and we just get into a 1099 agreement. And if they try to get crappy with me, I can just quit. But even I have worked gamed out a strategy of what would happen if I had to go back to being a desk jockey. Because, damn it, I tried to live in reality. Hello, Amazon and Walt Disney are among the firm's pushing staff back to physical offices, Salesforce will donate $10 to local charities for each day. And employee heads into the office between June 12 And June 23. Yeah, I don't know about that. I mean, I would say that if they have employees working there who are living paycheck to paycheck or who are working poor, why would they not donate the money to them? I mean, I give to charity, don't get me wrong. I'm not saying don't give the charity. I'm just saying like, how's that going to be a motivator? If somebody is a person who's in need of charity, if somebody is a person who's having to go to the food bank, on a weekly basis, or each night or whatever, go to a clothing bank, they would probably be like, Hey, why can I not have that money? It would really help me out. But they're just I guess, I don't know. Maybe that's some kind of emotional blackmail. We won't give to sick needy children if you don't come to the office. And there was a poster on here who made the comment. Don't you get more bees with honey and not vinegar? And I'm like, the whole reason why we're one of the reasons why the Fed is trying to crash the job market is so they won't need honey. There's not going to be any sweet sweet enticement to come on back. It's going to be come on back or get tossed out on the ice of Gotham. Am I the only one that sees the shit coming from 10 miles down the road? Good grief. LA Times cuts 13% of newsroom. Then the Los Angeles Times announced Wednesday that it is cutting 74 editorial jobs about 13% of its newsroom becoming latest news outlet to make layoffs in the face of slumping ad sales and print readership. Reporting positions are expected to largely escape the cuts which will hit production staff photographers and other teams. The papers you union said it had been negotiating contracts with management and was blindsided by the news executive editor Kevin Merida said the layoffs were agonizing and a result of the difficult economic operating environment and quote Wow. So in the here's a scenario where apparently the paper has a union trying to negotiate contracts and the people got cut anyway. Where is the safety net? Now? I mean, if you can't even count on a union, see, okay. It's like this is what I talked about in the podcast episode that I dropped this morning about, you're not going to beat the system. Go watch Oliver Stone's film JFK. If you need a case in point. Lululemon takes heat for firings should retailers risk their safety or their jobs to stop thieves. Oh, God. Lululemon CEO Calvin McDonald has defended the athleisure chains decision to fire to employees who intervened as thieves stole apparel at an Atlanta area store in April. The company tells CNN that it has an absolute zero tolerance policy that bars employees from putting themselves in harm's way, including during thefts. The policy has LinkedIn members sounding off some say employee safety should always be paramount, while others think the firing send the wrong message to thieves center the times in which we live. I wouldn't want an employee putting themselves in harm's way over apparel. I mean, I sort of think that we've already sent the wrong message to Thieves by saying we just won't prosecute theft if it's under a certain amount of money. So just make sure that when you're stealing, you do it up to a certain amount and then you stop don't get greedy with your theft. You and then you see these depressing photos of everything in a store being locked up. It's the economy. It's the economy. I'm thinking back to like 1970s era New York. Like the grit, the heat, the stagflation the unemployment. Yeah, I just as much as I would love to get on here and blow hot air and smoke and unicorn farts around. I can't do that in good conscience. In my opinion, which could be wrong. I think you're smarter to saddle up and be prepared for some real shit did the fan not zombies eating your brain, not Mad Max, the Thunderdome and all this hyperbolic Hollywood imagery. But we really could be in for something that resembles 1970s 19, early 1980s kind of recession, slash stagflation. inflation, unemployment. People are hot, they're tired. They're stressed out. All we need now is gasoline rationing. You know, you had to get the number or the color on what days you could fill up the tank. I just think we're in for a gritty, unpleasant time. I hope I'm wrong. But that's what I see coming.
Today this Friday, June 9, what a strange, eclectic, weird mixed bag of tricks that we have on the roster today. Over on CNBC, we find the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hiking campaign, what that means for you. The Federal Reserve is likely to temporarily pause its aggressive interest rate hikes when it meets next week, experts predict but consumers may not see any relief. Do you think they care if consumers seeking relief, the central bank has raised interest rates 10 times since last year, the fastest pace of tightening since the early 1980s. Only to see inflation stay well above its 2% target. We are living in uncharted territory set Charlie wise, Senior Vice President and head of global research and consulting at TransUnion. I'm going to butt in and say I predicted that. I told you we could very well see a narrative of unprecedented times. Nothing like this ever before. We had no point of reference. No one could have seen this coming from 10 miles down the road. Hmm. The combination of rising interest rates and elevated inflation, while not uncommon from a historical perspective is an unfamiliar experience. For many consumers. A pause is not going to make things better, he added although the Feds rate hiking cycle has started to cool inflation. Really. Higher prices have caused real wages to decline. That squeezed household budgets, pushing more people into debt just when borrowing rates reach record highs. Do you think that's a coincidence? Riddle me this. Do you think it happened on accident? Do you think it happened by coincidence that more people have have been pushed into record levels of debt just when borrowing rates hit record highs. If you do think that's purely a coincidence, I have some oceanfront property here in the landlocked Midwest, I'd love to sell you for top dollar. Even with a pause, interest rates are the highest they've been in years borrowing costs have gone up dramatically, and that isn't going to change. So Greg McBride, Chief Financial firstname.lastname@example.org, here's a breakdown of how benchmark rate has already impacted the rates consumers pay. So here we read credit card rates, top 20% How much mortgage rates are near 7% auto loan rates are close to 7% federal student loans are set to rise to five and a half percent. So hey, what happened to student loan forgiveness? Wasn't that a big campaign promise? You know, as I said before, I don't have a dog in that hunt. I paid my student loans off and I am so glad that I did. I would not want that sort of Damocles hanging over my head, I've got enough drama to deal with with my medical issues. Now, I've told you before, just when I think you I feel like Michael Corleone in The third Godfather, just when I'm trying to get out, they pull me back in just when I think maybe I've got my arms around it, I know what I owe and to who and and I'm staying ahead of it. Some new bill will pop up for as an entity. It's like someone looked at your chart, we provided the equipment, and everybody wants to get their pound of flesh and it is infuriating. So at least I don't have the federal student loans to worry about anymore. And I do feel sorry for people who thought that some Neo liberal politician was going to actually help them. I guess on on a good news on a positive side of thing deposit rates at some banks are up to 5%. So if you feel that putting your money in a high stuff, for example, a high yield savings account is a good move and you trust the bank that you would be putting it into, you can get a good return on investment for your money. Now, I don't tell you what to do. I don't give you advice of any kind, let alone financial advice. Talk to a professional financial planner or advisor get with somebody who knows that world a lot better than I do. If we're looking for a silver lining, I guess perhaps that could be it. Also on CNBC, we find the IRS is cracking down on a popular small business tax break that could lead to a costly audit. A cottage industry of specialist firms has sprung up to help business owners claim the employee retention credit or E RC, a governmental tax incentive intended for companies stressed by the pandemic. But businesses need to be careful not to get hoodwinked. There are strict eligibility requirements for the ERC. One way it can be claimed is for wages paid during pandemic periods with gross receipts declined, and many owners may not really understand the criteria. This means they could inadvertently gloss over the opportunity and lose out on a credit of up to 26,000 per employee. Or they could easily be duped by dodgy providers into improperly seeking money they aren't entitled to with a hefty fee attached, of course, and likely ramifications down the road, coffee out and tour. There's so many of these weird little cottage industries that seemingly spring up overnight, and then they're gone just as fast. It reminds me of like when Dr. Phil exposes catfish on his show, and it's always somebody from like Nigeria, and they have the same kind of scam going I love you. My money is trapped, I'm trapped. I've got riches and jewels, but they're stuck in customs and I can't get them out because the government is corrupt. Then these poor people believe the lies and they bleed out their life savings. And I feel the same way about a lot of these cottage industries. And you see it with coaching. I can't even tell you how many emails and items that I get about coaching the coach or training the trainer and it's like, get go On get if I need to find somebody in that capacity. I wouldn't hire somebody based on an im on LinkedIn. I'm sorry if that offends you. But now I got debt. So if we think about what what is the link here between this idea of the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hiking campaign. What What's up with that? Because see, I don't think that they do anything at the central banks by accident. I don't think it's capricious. In my opinion. It's all planned. All right. Couple of articles I want to point out on Yahoo Finance. One is Wall Street economists are increasingly less worried about a 2023 recession. The much discussed recession of 2023 still isn't here. Any economists are becoming less confident it will come at all. Let me just let me just have a minute here because this is like being waist deep in bullshit, in my opinion. I mean go say it one more time. If you wait to be officially told you're waiting too late. You're going to be so effed. By the time. If it ever happens by the time some official trots out it says, Okay, now that the recession has started, God help you. This week, Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo's team of economists became the latest group to dial back its recession outlook. The firm now sees a recession hitting at the beginning of 2024, as recent economic data reveals an economy not yet on the brink of recession. While we still expect the delayed effects of monetary tightening and tighter credit availability to dampen economic growth, the economy has proven to be more resilient than we anticipated Jesus Christ. Wells Fargo's team of economists wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday, as a result, we have pushed back our expectations for the start of economic contraction to q1 2020 for a quote. Okay. Oh, okay. Yeah. Yep, yep. Yep. I honestly don't even know what to say about that. Because it's like, here we go. It's just it keeps getting pushed back. It keeps getting pushed back. Supposedly, it's not even here yet. And I the more that I hear this the scale, the more afraid that I've come. Because it's like, how bad is it really going to be? But I think that some of what's going on with the maneuvering of the Fed is about this narrative, that we're still not in a recession. Maybe it won't happen at all. The economy is still resilient. I mean, look at what these Wells Fargo people wrote, the economy has proven to be more resilient than we anticipated. We've heard that same shit over and over again about the job market. I also want to hop over to another article on Yahoo Finance stocks waiver after s&p 500 enters a bull market. Okay, so we have stocks going up and entering bull market territory. I don't think any of this is coincidental. I think the Fed pausing its interest rate hikes, has to do with a the narrative and be the stock market. See, it's always about the crony. So let's face it, somebody is going to make tons of money off of this. It won't be us but somebody will. We're continuing to get this narrative of a recession somewhere out there on the horizon. Not here yet. And who knows, maybe it won't happen at all. We're getting the same narrative about the job market. job market is still red hot. Nothing to see here. People move along with long, everything's great. The economy is still resilient, it is still bouncing back. The labor market is resilient, it is still bouncing back. And then now we have this news about the stock market the s&p 500 Entering bull market territory today.
I just I don't think that this is a coincidence. Meanwhile, back at the branch over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find jobless claims up most since 2021. New jobless claims jumped last week to 261,000, the highest level since October 2021. And a sign that government jobs data is now reflecting recent layoffs. Applications for unemployment benefits rose by 28,000. The largest weekly increase since July 2021. The Labor Department data for first time filings can be volatile. They suggest a tight labor market is loosening. US companies announced more layoffs in the first five months of 2023 than all of last year right to Bloomberg. I want to read that to you again. US companies announced more layoffs in the first five months of 2023 than all of last year writes Bloomberg. Now, it's worth noting, you know, when I read the list of people that were invited to the Bilderberg Group, the editor in chief for Bloomberg was one such person. So you're just now being told this information that US companies announced more layoffs in the first five months of 2023 than all of last year. But remember, we weren't supposed to see mass layoffs at all. Oh, and then when they happened, it was only going to be big tech and Silicon Valley. And when that happened, it was like crickets and tumbleweeds. Continuing claims however, point to people finding work eventually, cheese. These fell to 1.7 6 million in the week ended may 27, the lowest since February, while US payroll surged by 339,000. In May the unemployment rate also rose to 3.7% from 3.4%. Oh us thing I've said it before, I know I have a broken record here. Bear with me. I feel like we're being breadcrumbed into this thing, as well as some gaslighting thrown in for good measure, like, you're not supposed to think that there's any stress in the labor market. Oh, it's been so tight. It's loosening a bit. That's normal. That's okay. And then you also in the same snippet read US companies announced more layoffs in the first five months of 2023 than in all of last year. I'm going to tell you, q1 of this year was a bitch. Pardon my language, but I told you this will be the year of raw authenticity and realness. It was up biatch it felt like there was nothing moving. And trying to get people off of high center was like Mission Impossible. I'm in the job market every single day. And I really get frustrated. Sometimes it's just funny, but I really get frustrated with these mansplain errs, the bots, the trolls, the shills that want to try to pick an argument with me and be like well and solve areas. It's still good, okay. Okay, you go ahead. You go ahead and you think in that direction, you have your hot air and your hopium smoke, that strain of opium sounds like it must be a good one. Denial ain't just a river in Egypt, you know, you you think about positive things, but puppies, sunshine, rainbows, lollipops. And then when you get absolutely obliterated by the downturn that's coming. Don't come here and ask for sympathy because I got none for you. zippity doo da, none. willful ignorance. For me, it's just not an excuse anymore. It's not, there are people trying to tell you that the economy is in shambles? If you choose not to listen to that what's on you. You have nobody to blame at this point other than yourself. So if you look at an article like this, and you think well, maybe somehow we do have a 3.7% unemployment rate, maybe us payrolls are surging, go ahead. Go ahead and think that if you choose to, but I am going on the record as predicting there will be people that get wiped out in this economic downturn, and they will not ever recover. They won't. There were people that got wiped out that badly during the Great Recession, and they've never recovered. They're still living hand to mouth and just doing what they can to survive. Those poor people really going to get masqueraded by this. It's not right. It's not fair. It's not good. I don't agree with it. I get on here and I tried to tell you like, wake up cockadoodledoo. Wake it on up. That's really all that I can do. I'm smart enough to know you're not gonna beat the system. All I can do is sit here with a computer and a microphone and the headlines and be like, Look, I'm telling you the truth as I see it. The job market is in rough shape. Hiring is pulling back hiring freezes are still going on. And you're having hiring managers get in these discussions of well do we really need now that Bob resigned, maybe we don't need to replace them, we can just farm out his most important job duties to the people that are already on payroll and does not fill that position for a while. These are the decisions and the discussions that are happening in real time I'm privy to them. Just be careful, I don't give you advice. And I'll tell you what to do. The most I can say is Caveat emptor, let the buyer beware use good judgment. And just be careful. Be careful about who you're listening to. and for what reason, be careful of any of these little bumps of hoping, oh, well, maybe we won't have a recession. after all. Maybe the Fed is going to take a pause on interest rate hikes, and that's going to really help you in some way. s&p 500 went into bull market territory, and maybe that's going to help you in some way. Be careful, okay? We live in crony capitalism, the cronies look out for themselves. They're not worried about you and me. They're not. I think more people are starting to pay attention to the Milton Friedman idea that companies only answer to the shareholders. They care about the investors and the Board of Directors but they don't care about society. They don't care about their workers, either. It's all about turning a profit for the people who quote matter. I think more people are waking up to that reality. Nevertheless, the onus is still on you to understand that we're not talking about things from a bygone era. We're not to Talking about something that happened back in the 60s and 70s, or maybe the 80s. But it doesn't happen now. These idiots make sure that they look out for each other, but they're not worried about me and you. The onus is on you to take care of you. Stay safe, stay sane, and I will see you in the next episode.
Thanks for tuning in. If you enjoyed this episode, please take a quick second to subscribe to this podcast and share it with your friends. We'll see you next time.