✔️ ICYMI news, 6/26-6/30.
✔️The recession has been cancelled. We are now in a bull market. So go back to sleep, little baby. All is well. 😒
✔️Job cuts, corporate defaults, food costs still going up - but hey! Looky at that stock market, y'all.
✔️More flashbacks to The Great Recession.
Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here's your host, Sara Causey.
Hello. Hello, and thanks for tuning in today it is Monday, June 26. It's kind of hard to believe that next week is the fourth of July holiday. Not that that's a complaint. I think we all know that I am a big fan of the dark half of the year, the sooner that we can get through the heat, the humidity, the bugs, the snakes, et cetera, the better for me. I was out doing some yard work yesterday and I managed to get stung all over my back by something. I have no idea what kind of bug it was, but I have welts on my back and I'm like, this sucks. Bring on the auto bring on the winter. I have just done with the heat and the sweating. And the bugs just I'm over it. I'm done. I'm over it and the whole daylight at 930 at night. Hey look, I'm team that's abnormal in my mind at 930 at night and it should be pitch black. You shouldn't be able to be either asleep watching a movie reading a book light outside that hour of the night just no thank you. All right back at the ranch over on CNBC. Today we find NASDAQ falls to start the final week of June as tech shares struggle. We also read Novo Nordisk says high dose experimental obesity pill leads to 15% weight loss. Hmm. Well, if I were a betting person, I would imagine there would be people who would be willing to take on a high dose experimental obesity pill to try to get to that weight loss because, you know, America is the land of quick fixes. We like things quick, fast, and in a hurry. I don't want to work out I don't want to watch my diet. I don't want to get a different set of eating habits. Why? Why do that when I could just pop a pill instead? This seems to be American thinking. Although I will say as I have said before, it's not just America. There are plenty of places in the western world that are falling victim to that kind of mentality. I think we just as Americans were the easiest source to beat up. We're the fastest finger that gets pointed. Also on CNBC today, we find corporate bankruptcies and defaults are surging. And here's why. And the TLDR key points we read, corporate defaults rose last month with 41 in the US so far this year, that's more than double the same period last year. According to Moody's Investors Service, companies are defaulting on their debt due to uncertain economic conditions and heavy debt loads. high interest rates have made it difficult to refinance as debt is more expensive. The number of bankruptcy filings in the US this year has also sharply risen to levels not seen since 2010. So even though we still have people in the hotter and hopium crowd telling you that everything is fine, nothing to see here, people will move along, move along, there won't be a recession, the economy is resilient, the job market is resilient to open jobs for every one unemployed person. If someone is struggling right now, well, it must be their own fault, because they're always open jobs. Right? Of course. Let's look at the information here. Because I feel like this type of article is much more useful, and much more helpful for decision making than the hot air and hopium nonsense. If companies are defaulting on their debt, if they feel like the economy is uncertain, they have a heavy debt load. And then that debt is more expensive to service now because of the interest rate hikes. The bankruptcy filings are going up, hasn't been seen to this level since 2010. What does that tell you? From my perspective, having expertise in the job market, what it tells me is these companies are not going to be hiring. They're also not going to be focused on retention. They're going to be thinking about downsizing if they don't go under completely. I was ahead of the curve before anybody in the mainstream media came out and said, Oh, I think some of these job postings might be fake. I was telling you, yeah, hell yeah. Some of these companies are posting jobs for optics only. Some of them are evergreen positions that are just open all the time and they want to talent pipeline people in some of them are BS. They're posted for optics only and nobody's going to be hired. And some of them are posted on the off chance. The hiring manager thinks that Tony Stark, genius billionaire, playboy philanthropist is going to be surfing a job board one day and decide that he wants to stop being up billionaire investor and go to work for this company making 40 or 50k a year with full RTO. But in seat in a cubicle in the middle of nowhere. That's the truth. So just this article in and of itself, tells me all of this nonsense about a robust job market and all these open jobs churning and burning and you can still job haul, huh? Again, out of deference to that will actually mansplainers. Are there pockets? Where that is probably still true. Are their high turnover industries? Are their niche, highly specialized skill sets where people typically can pick and choose? Yes. Am I telling you that's the broader economy? Or that's the broader job market right now? No, not only No, but hell, no, that is not my experience. It's not what I'm saying. I feel like this type of information is good information to know if corporate defaults are going up. bankruptcy filings are going up. Companies are worried about the economy and the level of debt they have. That tells me they're not focused on hiring. They're not going to be wheeling and dealing with candidates either. So if somebody shows up and says, Yeah, I'll come work here, but I want a 30% Raise and unlimited PTO, which is something that people were doing, by the way, during the Great resignation not that long ago. Is that going to fly now? No. Wake up. Please wake up. Over on Yahoo Finance. Today we find Federal Reserve's message to the bullish stock market. We will break you. There's an old cliche about you can't fight the Fed. And I think there are people that are getting ready to find that out maybe for the first time. By not I don't mean the fat cats. I mean people in the general public who still think that all of these things happen by accident. In this we read sentiment has shifted on Wall Street to begin the summer thanks in large part to new information from the Fed. The feds pause on raising interest rates a few weeks ago has spooked investors. As it's clear a pause doesn't mean no more rate hikes. Pals testimony last week added further fuel to the view that two more rate hikes are coming this year to wrangle inflation, perhaps much to the detriment of the economy. I expect a similar hawkish tone to emerge from pals do speeches later this week. One of the big stories this year is that central banks continue to surprise the markets. With either more rate hikes or hints and more to come proclaim Bank of America economist Ethan Harris Harris is on the mark with the observation and is right in questioning the markets resilience amid those negative surprises and quote, well, sentiment may be shifting. And maybe there's a hawkish tone. But do you really think that there's an element of surprise here? Or do you think that there's play acting at the element of surprise? Judge for yourself? I know for me, in my opinion, I believe we live in crony capitalism. I do not think that corporate America surprises the state. I don't think the state surprises corporate America. I don't think Wall Street surprises the state or corporate America or vice versa. I think that all of these little piggies feed out of the same trough. And I think they like to make damn sure that the economy behaves in a way that enriches them. They're not worried about me and you they're not worried about John and Jane Q Public and those of us in the unwashed masses. They're thinking about themselves. So I would disagree with the idea that all of this is just one big negative surprises Oopsy daisy, who could see it coming in terms of we will break you the I don't think you're going to be able to fight the Fed. Just like I don't think that John and Jane Q Public are going to have some big walkout against corporate America over the RTO versus work from home thing. I'm sorry, I don't I still see people on social media that have their head in the clouds or somewhere else about this issue. And I'm just like, man, they are gonna get steamrolled. And that's sad. It does me no pleasure to make that comment. But here I am week after week doing that. Because there may be that one person who's finally waking up to reality, and saying, I need to get a job loss survival plan put together, I need to be prepared for the great recession 2.0 I hope it doesn't happen. I hope things don't get that bad. But I don't know. In my mind, it's better to be prepared and scared. And it's better to be prepared and have some idea of what might be coming down the road than to be completely ambushed. Because when you're ambushed, you have to just live on your wits and that moment. Over on fortune.com. We find banks face their worst losses since the 2008 crisis if inflation cannot be tamed, says the world's brains Rest of central bankers in the byline we read the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank to the world mourn unsustainable debt levels mean the global economy is not out of the woods. Okay. Let's, let's think about this. You know, I've talked a lot before about if you were an adult, if you were a bill paying adult out on your own during the Great Recession, and I would even say the few years there, precipitating the meltdown.
I feel like this is such a flashback. To me, that's how it feels. It's like, oh my God, I've seen this movie before. I feel like I'm in the sequel. Here we go. Let's just let's look at these two headlines side by side corporate bankruptcies and defaults are surging. And here's why. We're being told about corporate default, companies defaulting on debt due to the economy due to heavy debt lows, high interest rates, number of bankruptcy filings not seen since 2010. Then we pivot over to Fortune and we find banks face their worst losses since the 2008 crisis. If inflation cannot be tamed, unsustainable debt levels mean the global economy is not out of the woods. I feel like these are your early warning signs. But here's the deal. I have been on the Saturday broadcast for over a year now, because I could see the early warning signs way before these early warning signs which I'm using air quotes here early warning signs. This is maybe the only kind of early warning Oh Oopsy daisy type of articles that we get from mainstream media news sources. It very well may be. I know that sounds bleak. I know that sounds tinfoil hat conspiracy theory. I'm just telling you the truth as I see it, it's just my opinion. And I could be wrong. I hope to God, I am wrong. But just look at the preponderance of evidence. You get these two major headlines about unsustainable debt, corporate defaults. Central bankers are saying, yeah, the banks are going to have their worst losses since 2008. If we can't get this inflation under control. You have to come to your own conclusions. But in my mind, this tells me there be a shitstorm of brewing. And I just don't think that there's going to be a magical Hail Mary pass that comes down the pike to put a massive bandage on the open wound. I think there's too much debt. I think there's been too much QE, too much free money. Easy money that went to the fat cats. And we're gonna mean you, me and you, those of us in the unwashed masses, we are going to have to be the ones to foot the bill for it. I know, I know. That'd be the downer. You're not giving us hopium Well, if you want hot air and hopium go to social media, look at the toxic optimism the toxic positivity crowd and wonder, by the way, how many of those people are going to still be around? If we do face another? Great Recession, global financial crisis 2.0 And 1982 recession 2.0 If we face something like that, again, how many of those people are even still going to be around? I mean, I guess if they have access to a cell phone and an internet connection, they can still post their drivel. I just wonder how motivated they're going to be to continue doing that if they get completely and totally wiped out. You don't have to go along with that. You can choose to read the news, figure things out for yourself and be as prepared as you can be going into this mess. Today it is Tuesday, June 27. Over on Yahoo Finance we find stocks surge as Wall Street rebounds after run of losses. In the byline stocks remain poised for a comeback as investors comb through fresh economic prints showing the economy remains resilient. Ah, sunshine, gumdrops, lollipops unicorns, I'm imagining like a stock photo or a stock video of a cute little puppy and a fuzzy kitten running through a meadow with lush green grass. The sun is shining on them and it's just a beautiful day because the stock market surged and the economy remains resilient. How do we know this? Well because the mainstream media is telling us so. Walgreen Walgreens thinks on week vaccine consumer demand. Google parent hit with two rare downgrades DeSantis argues for immunity from Disney lawsuit. How an economic slowdown could impact consumer spending. Hmm Well, let's think about that. People are and will continue to pull back because it's the economy stupid. Hello. It's not that difficult to figure out. Student Debt how to land for loan payments to resume? Hmm. Yeah. I'm gonna say it again, if you were planning on loan forgiveness, if you were planning on the payments being stalled for a while longer, how are you prepared to handle that? Now? In my opinion, if a politician's lips are moving, they're probably lying. So I hope that you didn't put too much stock in promises. Home prices increase again signaling recovery. Hmm. Really? Does it mean that there's a recovery in the housing market? Or does it mean that sellers are greedy as hell and they want to continue to LARP that we're in 2021. On an unrelated note, when we hop over to fortune.com, we find Jerome Powell promised a housing market reset, but isn't actually happening. In the byline. On Tuesday, US house prices as tracked by Case Shiller went negative on a year over year basis for the first time since 2012. However, it comes as month over month, prices are rising again. Let's think about this. It's the summertime, kids are out of school. By and large, this is a popular time for people who want to make a move to make that move. They feel like it's going to be less distressing for the kids in the house, because they're out of school, we can move where we want to go get settled in before school kicks back up in August or September. I have not seen tremendous price reductions on the properties that we would be interested in. The inventory is frankly, just not there. There aren't a lot of choices. If you are looking for a home and a barn with some actual acreage to raise animals, there's just not that much out there to choose from, what is there is still grossly overpriced. And some of the properties as I've said many times before, just due to poop houses, lemons, places, that would take a lot of money, it would take more, quite frankly, than the house is actually worth to get the place back up to snuff. I read this heartbreaking story. Last night, it was so upsetting. I'm not going to repeat it. Because you don't need this image in your head. You don't. But it just reminded me, it reignited my fire. I'm like, I still want this to happen. I want to be able to expand I want to be able to rescue and rehabilitate more animals, this is still very important to me. And sometimes I get frustrated because I just feel hamstrung. It's like the market is not cooperating with my desire. The market is not cooperating with this goal of being able to do that. I feel a bit trapped. You I told you this was going to be the year of raw honesty, raw authenticity, I'm not pulling any punches. There are times when I do I feel trapped, I feel landlocked because it's like there's no way for us to expand, I'm maxed out on what I can do. And that frustrates me. Then at the same time, we don't want to be house poor, we don't want to get foreclosed on or have to declare bankruptcy because we bit off more than we could chew. Buying someplace that was grossly overpriced and or about to fall in. That's that's not a fun position to be in. So what's going on right now with this conflicting information? Who really knows the fat cats know the people at the central banks and at the top of the pyramid, they know what's actually going on? I suspect that it's the typical summertime push of people who want to move trying to accomplish that over the summer while the kids are out of school, along with greedy sellers, and probably their ill advised Realtors goading them into putting a price tag on a house. That's just absurd. I could be wrong. It's just my opinion. I don't know. But I don't really think that this is some the heavens have opened up and angels are singing and strumming on their hearts. I don't think it's that kind of signal that we're going to go back to a FOMO YOLO 2021 type of environment. I think that what's going on in the broader economy as well as what's going on in the job market specifically suggest to me, there's just no way as we continue to see layoffs as we continue to have these RTO verses work from home battles. I'm just not convinced that people are going to be able to afford whatever house that they have, especially if they bought in during the bubble. And they grossly overpaid for a house and they're going to get upside down on it. I hope I pray that doesn't happen. As I've said many times I've seen this movie before. I remember what happened during the Great Recession. I hope it doesn't happen again. But I'm seeing a lot of signs and signals that remind me of that period of time. also, unfortunately find the President is eager to run for reelection on Biden nomics that most of the country hates polls suggest. Oh Lord, we also find Silicon Valley elites are reportedly taking ketamine and attending psychedelic parties to bolster their focus and creativity.
Oh Lord, Gen Z are turning to radical rest, delusional thinking and self indulgence as they struggled to cope with late stage capitalism. Much of the aid Now excuse me, 1.8 trillion in student debt won't ever be repaid. nonpartisan research organization says the government is poised to take a bath on its student loan portfolio. Well, we'll wind up paying for that too. It's the simple man baby that's gonna pay for the pills and the thrills and the bills that kill 100%. And I mean, hey, in the same spread here, on the homepage, we get this story about delusional thinking self indulgence 1.8 trillion in student debt that won't ever be repaid, and Silicon Valley elites dropping ketamine in order to bolster their focus, and creativity. Wow, we couldn't make this up if we were trying. Forget quiet quitting. Now frustrated employees are loud quitting, and the resignation trend is even worse for business leaders. Yeah, I don't know about that. I would be very careful. If it were me, I don't give you advice. I don't tell you what to do. But if it were me, I would be extremely careful about the idea of loud pointing. I don't know that this would be the time to stand up at your desk and scream, take this job and shove it and then run out the door. If you're going to pull a stunt like that, you have to be pretty damn sure that you can land something else quickly or be independently wealthy, in which case, it doesn't matter if you're a trust fund baby, and you don't actually have to work. But for the rest of us down here on Earth, I'd be very careful about doing something like that if it were me. The other thing is Word travels. What kind of reference what kind of information is going to come out about you from said employer? Oh, yeah, Betty stood up at her desk and screamed fu to everybody and ran out the door. I know, look, we live in a much more transactional and a much more anonymous society than we used to. It's not anonymous. From a surveillance point of view. I just mean like people are here today gone tomorrow in a way that they weren't 30 years ago. So I get the temptation to do something like that to really stunt and show out. But you just never know when that can come back to bite you in the butt. You have to think about these things. It's not about doing what's best for corporate America. It's about doing what's best for you and your family. Today, it is Wednesday, June 28. For some reason, all day today, I thought that it was Thursday. So imagine my disappointment as I kept looking at the calendar going Oh, no. It's only Wednesday. It's only hump day. Okay. And I don't know what the deal was. I honestly went to Google and asked what planets are in retrograde right now? Because it just seemed like a bizarro world. And and it did, it seemed to be like a wide variety of people on one today and not a good one either on a bad one people that just wanted to be aggravating pills. I don't know. I don't know what the motivation was for that. But maybe it's just the pressure cooker. You have talked about that before getting into stress about the economy, stress about your job. And then on top of that it's insufferably hot and humid. It does it creates a pressure cooker type of environment where everybody's just on edge. People feel like the least little thing, not least little push is enough to cause a real episode of anger. This morning, I felt like Michael Douglas and that movie falling down where he goes to the Whammy burger. And he's like, one minute late for the breakfast. So the cashier doesn't want to serve him and he's like, I've had a rare morning. That's how I felt. I'm like, oh my god, it has been a rare morning. I'm not in the mood for nonsense. I'm not in the mood to play games with people. What is up today? So my findings if you're interested, apparently Saturn is in retrograde. So for what that's worth, maybe that's a reason why people decided to be aggravating pills on Wednesday, June 28. I don't know. I don't pretend to have the answer on that other than my theory of the pressure cooker. Over on CNBC, we have headlines today such as Powell says more restriction is coming including possibility of hikes and consecutive meetings. In the byline we find Bank of England Governor defies critics says surprise rate hike was justified invidious chips fuel AI. As drug makers race to develop the next big weight loss pill Eli Lilly may have an edge over on Yahoo Finance, similar scene. Feds Powell says I won't take two consecutive rate hikes off the table. In the byline we read the Fed Chair said at a forum in Portugal that there is still a risk of doing too little to bring down inflation. Stocks wobble is Powell teases consecutive rate hikes. Biden argues his US economy is the world's best. Is it? Even a comment on that? Because like, I mean, what's the point? We also have the next recession might be three years away. Really. on Yahoo Finance by way of fortune, we find a recession indicator that predicted every downturn since 1969 started flashing months ago. And a Wall Street veteran warns it always works on a delay. Well, I don't know about that. As I've told you before, in my opinion, which could be wrong, in fairness to the argument, just my opinion. And it could be wrong. I think we're already in a recession. And we have been for a while now. I just, it's hard for me to wrap my mind around this idea of the recession rising from the missed one day and Oh, who knows, maybe it's three years away. This is crazy to me. We also find over half of Gen Z and millennials are financially dependent on their parents. Not a surprise. I know we're supposed to get into generational clickbait and we're either supposed to beat up on the young gays or beat up on the oldies. But it's like, well, who's shocked by that? Times are tough, I go back to the pressure cooker. You know, it's not taking a whole lot right now to stress people out. I guess if you're a hyperlink if you just have bazillions of dollars and no financial stress whatsoever. Well, okay, good for you. But for the rest of us down here on planet Earth, if you're working class working poor, it's just not taken a lot. It's hot. Then you've got power outages and rolling blackouts. And it's just like, Oh my god. Can you just not? I remember feeling that multiple times this morning, can you just not? Can you just go back to whatever hole you crawl out of and beat it. That's what happens. We have a longer fuse, I think when the economy actually is robust, and then those of us towards the bottom of the pyramid are allowed to get more crumbs from the table. It's not as hot him a more temperate time of the year you have a longer fuse. But right now people are just not in the mood for BS and drama. Over on Business Insider, we find the Federal Reserve thinks catastrophe is coming for us businesses. And in this article, they talk about debt defaults and not not as much money for hiring. I'll read the share of non financial firms and financial distress has reached a level that is higher than during most previous tightening episodes since the 1970s. And are Perez orif and Yannick Timur wrote, hopefully I'm saying that right, I don't know. The feds 10 consecutive interest rates intended to quell historically high prices threatened to hammer business investment, employment and economic activity. Now the economist said it's possible that debt ridden companies will avoid spending money on new developments or facilities hiring or production.
So it's not a surprise. I'm going to hold off on playing the music because I'm going to play the music in just a second. But in fairness to the argument, I warned you, I told you this was coming. So you can you can choose to listen to the Hadera hopium crowd, if that's what you want to do. If you want to believe that the economy is robust, and there's a recession, maybe out there some weird kind of sorta it's gonna show up one day or then maybe it isn't, who knows? If you want to listen to that it is your right to do so. I've told you before we could hire economist to say whatever we want it. I could go hire two freelance economists right now. And I could tell one of them. I really want data supporting the economy is resilient and the job market is robust, go find it. I could hire another one and say, I want the opposite of that. Go find it and they would come back with results. They would come back with results. You have to look at the preponderance of evidence you have to judge and choose for yourself. Also today a news alert popped up now this is coming by way of Ohio. And I am on the W t no wait a minute dyslexia moment just a second WDT in from Dayton. I fake a website. I'll drop a link can go check this out for yourself. I'm not making this up. Amendment introduced to limit remote working in Ohio. It was posted on June 25. In this we find an amendment that would limit workers from working remotely and Ohio was recently proposed. The amendment is inside of the state's $94 billion budget which was approved by the Ohio Senate during the week of June 12. If the measure survives Ohioans who work for the state of Ohio, so we're not talking about corporate America broadly, we're talking about workers for the state Ohioans who work for the state of Ohio would be limited to only eight hours of remote work each week. An exception would be made for individuals who are granted it as an accommodation by the Americans with Disabilities Act, the ADEA or any civil rights laws, according to the 15 page highlights of the amendment in quote. So this is where I'm going to go ahead and play the music.
I did, I warned you. It did. In my opinion, we have crony capitalism. In my opinion, corporate America doesn't surprise the state and the state doesn't surprise corporate America. If the mayors of these cities feel like you need to be back downtown, cross pollinating, eating in the restaurants, shopping in the shops, socializing, buying coffee, using public transportation and taking your tax dollars back down there. That's what it is. The people in real positions of power, don't surprise each other. And if they choose to collude with one another, all scratch your back, if you scratch mine, they will. They will. To be clear, I don't live in Ohio. I don't know what the situation is here with this proposed bill. I'm really looking at it more as a precedent. Could other States choose to do the same thing? And then could this trend fan out beyond state employees? Could this be something that happens to all government employees? Could this be something that trickles down to the private sector? In my mind, in my opinion, that's possible. I can't predict the future. I'm not gonna sit here and tell you I know for a fact that that's what's going to happen. I'm telling you, it's a possibility. So I'm going to say it again, if you have not already planned out an RTO survival plan. If you haven't already figured out what you would do in the event that it was RTO because that's the only choice. You need the money to survive. Have you done that? If you haven't done that already? My question would simply be what are you waiting on?
Are you looking for more? Don't forget, you can find Sara on her blogs at CauseyConsultingLLC.com and at SaraCausey.com. You can also read her content on Medium and Substack. On with the show.
Today it is Thursday, June 29. At least today it actually is Thursday, since I spent all of yesterday thinking it was Thursday and feeling kind of discombobulated. At least today. I'm on track on Reuters This was actually published a couple of days ago for to cut jobs in the US and Canada to trim costs. In this we find Ford Motor Company said on Tuesday it will begin layoffs this week, impacting mostly engineering jobs in the US and Canada as part of the Detroit automakers move to exit unprofitable locations and cut headcount. The development comes after the company said in May it expects to take up restructuring charges between 1.5 and 2 billion in 2023. The Wall Street Journal reported the company plans to layoff at least 1000 salaried employees and contract workers in North America that four did not specify the number of roles to be affected by the move and quote, yet somehow people are doing great economy is resilient. Nothing to see here. People move along move along. on CNBC we find supreme court rejects affirmative action at colleges as unconstitutional. Now rises 200 points after banks passed stress test GDP revised higher see the GDP has been revised higher. This is good news. The banks have passed those stress tests. The GDP has gone up and we thought maybe it wouldn't. Hey, things are great. In fact, in this article we read a bout have positive economic data signaled economic resilience despite looming recession fears that included a large upward revision in the first quarter GDP and a drop in weekly jobless claims to the lowest level since May. Things are moving and grooving. Here Why am I even on here? People are doing great, everything is fine. We also find house hunting is no picnic. Guess what it's about to get harder? Well, that I don't doubt. I think that's probably accurate. on Yahoo Finance, it's a similar scene. US economy is a lot stronger than Wall Street thought. In the byline, we read an upward GDP revision is just one of many economic indicators projecting a healthier economy that experts have expected. We also find stocks rise after GDP revision surprises Whoa. As long as things are good for Wall Street, as long as things are good for the investors, well, hey, Wall Street went up. GDP revision numbers cause the market to go up. I am sure that's just a complete coincidence. Probably completely unrelated. Over on fortune.com I'm sorry, I don't mean to laugh. But I mean, I sort of can't help it. unfortunate.com we find Elon Musk would flip into demon mode and rip people apart, says biographer who shadowed him for two years. Demon mode. Okay. We also find Adam Grant has a message for leaders calling workers back to the office don't mistake presence for performance. Well, yeah. Agreed. But I'm still out on my limb here. I don't think RTO is gonna go away. And I don't think that bosses who are really worried about everybody coming back to the cube farm so that they can be better controlled and surveilled. I don't think that they're all that concerned about what commentators are saying out in the media. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, but it's kind of what I'm thinking. Also on the register today, we find boss's face losing key workers after forcing a return to Office. The byline reads survey says, try to say that not like you're on the Family Feud surveys this survey says most would prefer a gentle request. Okay. A recent report covering 9500 employers and 6650 employees across 17 Global Markets found that those who forced workers to come back to office buildings are paying a price with 42% saying they'd subsequently lost more employees than expected. Did that drive their stock market prices up? I mean, I don't know. Kind of seems to be a correlation there, in my opinion, that whenever these companies have layoffs or they reduce headcount, the stock goes up. Interesting. Unlike Salesforce, which is trying to lure workers back to the office with a charitable donation each time staffers leave the comfort of deep pile and slippers for sensible brogues and antistatic carpets, a full 70% of respondents replying to workplace consultant UNISPACE is survey said they force returns to the office via mandate rather than dropping heavy hands or providing incentives. The result aside from the 42%, who said attrition was higher than normal. And they they draw special attention to the word attrition. They call it out in quotes there, go look at this article for yourself so that you can see it. Aside from the 42% who said attrition in quotes was higher than normal some 21% of those ordering folks into the office said the movement actually lost them some of their key key is also set aside in quotes some of their key members of staff. The survey also found that almost a third 29% Were the return was mandatory. We're now struggling that's in quotes to recruit altogether. So if they're losing valuable employees why the push to go back? While the reg can only speculate if there's a causal link, there's a hint and another step UNISPACE also noted that large numbers of businesses three and 470 5% of the respondents said they had increased their real estate portfolio in the last two years. Cal Sopris. The consultant said this goes against the numbers reported in 2021 When 84% said they plan to decrease the amount of office space they looked after. Yeah, as I've said before, in my opinion, don't pay so much attention to what these fat cats and Wall Street cronies have cronies on Capitol Hill don't pay so much attention to what they say watch what they do. If corpo America is buying up corporate real estate, what does that tell you? If they're verbally saying we plan to decrease the amount of office space We're gonna let y'all peons work from home forever, don't worry about it. But then in actuality they're buying corporate real estate. I'm pointing to my noggin here, you know you got one use it. What what, what does that tell you about the state of affairs? It tells me that more than likely you're going back. I know that I'm a broken record here. Do you have a job loss survival plan? Do you have an RTO survival plan? In the event that you decide? No, I'm not going back and and if they try to make me I'll just quit. What are you going to be able to do to secure another job quickly? Today it is Friday, June 30. TGIF. I am very pleased and delighted that we've made it to Friday. I don't know what was in the water this week. I don't know if it was national act like a jerk week. And I didn't get the memo. Not sure what was up with that. But it was a doozy. When you own and operate your own business, you're gonna have some times that are like that. But man, I go back to my analogy of the pressure cooker. I just to me, it seems like you've got people that are stressed out, they're having money worries. And then on top of that it's painfully hot and humid. It's a pressure cooker. So yeah, I'm I'm ready for the weekend. I've pretty much had enough. I need some solitude. Over on CNBC, we find stocks rise to close out strong first half on encouraging inflation data. He fed inflation measure shows prices rose just point 3% in May. Really. So prices are still going up. But allegedly, they're only going up by point 3%. Meanwhile, we are still seeing increases at the grocery store. There are certain products that it's like every time you go in. It's more expensive than it was the time before it's incredibly frustrating. So here we go. Pressure Cooker. No wonder people feel like they need to lash out and act like jerks because it's the economy stupid. We also find most investors believe we are in a new bull market and there will be no recession in 2023. Wow. Wow. Wow. In this we read the majority of Wall Street investors believe stocks have entered a new bull market and the US economy will skirt a recession in 2023. According to the New CNBC delivering Alpha investor survey, we polled about 400 chief investment officers equity strategist portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money about where they stood on the markets for the third quarter and forward. The survey was conducted over the last week. So I have a little infographic here and it says on the markets right now, do you believe we've entered a new bull market or this is a bear market rally 61% saying we've entered a new bull market and 39% say this is a bear market rally. So there you go. Why? Why am I even still on the air? What's the point? Things are good. The economy is resilient. Hell, we're going into a new bull market, according to the 61% of these investors. Nothing to see here.
People move along, move along. Meanwhile, we also find on CNBC from that same delivering Alpha platform. Stanley Druckenmiller sees hard landing in 2023, with a possible deeper recession than many expect. Okay, we also find Supreme Court strikes down Biden student loan forgiveness plan. So I will ask you again, if you were planning on that, if that was going to be a major financial boon for you, and you were waiting on that to come through? What are you going to do if that doesn't happen? Have you made other plans? Do you have other preps in place for when those student loan payments resumed? And you're on the hook for them? Just long pause there. So you can think about that. I've told you before I don't have a dog in that hunt. My loans are paid off and have been for a little while now. So it's doesn't make me any difference either way, but just seems like anytime these politicians trot out with big promises, you have to look at the end result. Do they actually come true? Are the promises kept or do they just fall by the wayside? Over on Yahoo Finance, we find an inflation gauge tracked by the Federal Reserve falls to its lowest point in two years. Wow. In this we read an inflation index that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve tumbled last month to its lowest level since April 20. 21 pulled down by lower gas prices and slower rising food costs. You see how they did that? That's some wordsmithing right? They're slower rising food costs so your food costs are still going up. And you know you're gonna have to eat so you got to like deal with that but it's slow are rising. Oh, I see that. That's what we're supposed to consider is good news. Now I What, What world are we living in? I don't get it. Also on Yahoo Finance, we find Bezos backed company surpasses $100 million in single family home acquisitions while US housing shortage worsens. Interesting. Do you find it intriguing that these investors and hedge funds are buying up single family dwellings? I mean, I find that interesting. And I also find it disturbing. But yet, if I were to say you've been on nursing and you'd be happy, maybe this is part of a bigger plan, then I'm just a wingnut. I actually made a little audio of the typical Neo lib who likes to cry out about conspiracy theories. I think that will debut that for you now. That's just a conspiracy theory. So there you go. No matter what evidence is placed in front of some people, they're just not going to freak it get it. Also on Yahoo Finance, we find just missed a few payments screw up your credit score. Peter Schiff slams Biden's new mortgage rule. Oh boy. In this way, Reed mortgage fees are changing under the new rules from the Biden administration's Federal Housing Finance Agency, because some borrowers with good credit may end up paying higher fees compared to those with lower credit scores. The change has sparked a discussion among the critics is Peter Schiff, CEO and chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital. During an interview posted on shifts YouTube channel, the host shared his intention to buy a home but voiced concerns about getting punished if the plan goes through. Because of his good credit score, shifts response was just missed a few payments screw up your credit score that will help your mortgage rate. Schiff who successfully predicted the financial crisis of 2008 pointed out the issues with this change. The new rule encourages people to make smaller down payments. Oh, that's totally a flashback, you guys, it totally is. This new rule encourages people to make smaller down payments than they might have otherwise made. He said normally, if you make a big down payment, you get a better rate. But now Biden wants the better rates to go to people that don't make a big down payment in quote. Oh, God. I'm telling you, I have seen this damn movie before. I have seen it before. Wow. On fortune.com, we find there's a $75 trillion reason the economy won't crash into a recession. top economist says baby boomers pent up net worth. Okay. All right. Sure. Sure, sure. Okay. I don't even I don't even know what to say to some of this other than you have to make up your own mind. You have to go check these articles out for yourself. Don't take my word for anything. Go read for yourself. Take a look at what's happening in your community. As I've warned you before, if a mom and pop shop has a layoff, it's not going to make the nightly news. They're not going to come down to Joe Bob's machine shop that just let go of half of its staff and do an interview. You're not going to hear about it on the national news. You have to pay attention and make your own decisions where I feel like I have really just lost patience is with people that have their head firmly up their rear end. They can tell you everything about royal gossip, they can tell you about some asinine video they watched on tick tock, but they seem to have no clue as to how the job market relates to the broader economy and vice versa. They're just living in some other dimension. I've also lost patience with people who want to smoke hopium with the hot air and hopium crowd. They're so far into this mentality that RTO is going to go away. There's going to be a nationwide strike and somehow that strike will be successful. And no, no AI is ever going to take your job. Your job will always be saved from artificial intelligence. So you don't have to view it as some kind of existential threat. There is no such thing as a great r e s e t there's no such thing as CBD C's. Meanwhile, in the last Saturday broadcast, I read you a mainstream media news article about the IMF developing a cbdc Some people that they're just not going to make it, in my opinion, they're listening to in a nonsense because it's what they want to hear. Bottom line, they want to hear the job market is doing great. They want to hear the great resignation is still going strong. They can hippity hop all over the job market and get more money every single time. If they get laid off, well, it's no sweat, they might be unemployed for a week or two, and they're going to be right back at it again. That's what people want to hear. So when you're a contrarian, like myself, and you're going, Hey, wait a minute. First of all, I've seen this movie before I was an adult with adult responsibilities. I was alive and well, during the great recession. And the years that precipitated it. I saw the shenanigans and the chicanery that happened at that point in time. This feels very familiar to me. I've been in the job market every day, for over a decade. Now. I know how to read the ebbs and flows. And I'm not seeing the signs and signals that the labor market is in fact, robust. And there are all these legit open jobs that pay a living wage and offer benefits. Well, if somebody is unemployed, it must be because they're lazy. They're just not too motivated to find another job. All these men are laying at home and grandma's basement and on girlfriend's couches, smoking dope and playing video games and scratching themselves. They're just not working. I don't believe that. You can choose to believe whatever you want to look at the preponderance of evidence, look at your local community. There are some machine shops not too far from my farm.
Man, I remember in 2019, when we had that little manufacturing, boom, holy cannoli, they were open all the time. 24/7 24/7 operation I saw those machine shops running. They some of them and again, because I'm in staffing, and I know the market, some of those places had never had a third shift before but they added a third shift to keep up with demand. I'm telling you 24 7365, those machine shops were turned into burnin, and you'd have to call people and try to entice them for the second or third shift by giving them the differential or a bonus pay. I mean, if a welder came on the market, if a welder called you, at eight o'clock in the morning, when the office open and said I'm ready to go, I want to make a change. My boss is a jerk or I feel like I'm underpaid. My coworker just left and he got a $5 an hour pay bump to go I want that same kind of deal. If they called you at eight o'clock in the morning and said that, by 5pm close business that day, they would already have, at minimum one offer in hand. At minimum. There were times when people didn't didn't stay on the market at full entire date. I can remember welders and machinists that were gone by lunchtime. They call you at 8am and saying I can go well test today. What do you got? If you didn't have anybody that moved fast enough by lunch? They were they were off the market already. I'm not seeing those kinds of things happening in white collar knowledge work right now. I am not. I am not seeing somebody that calls me at eight o'clock in the morning and says I just got laid off. Do you have anything? And then by noon, they already have a job offer or by 5pm They already have a job offer? I'm not seeing it. All I can do is sit here and opine for your entertainment only and speak on what I am seeing day in and day out. You got to make your own decisions. I just hope that I hope for your own sake, that you can temper out the hot air and hope we have crowd because if these influencers that tell you remote work is going to last forever, there's going to be this big backlash and all of corporate America and corporate real estate will crumble. If you listen to that and you buy into it whole hog. Those influencers are not going to come and help you if their predictions are wrong. Point blank. They're not. And I know I know it sounds Debbie Downer to just say hey, you need to be prepared for a job loss. You need to be prepared for mandatory RTO. Look at the letters. Look at people online on social media. Hey, we moved away and now I've been called back called back hey, we don't have childcare anymore. And now I've been called back. We live in the boondocks and can't find anything here. Make your decisions wisely. Stay safe, stay sane. Let's hope that maybe next week is not national jerk week again. And I'll see you in the next episode.
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