Saturday Broadcast 57

 Key topics:

✔️ ICYMI news, 7/17-7/21.
✔️Digital currency is comin' whether you're ready or not.
✔️No recession to see here, people. Move along, move along.
✔️$7000 mortgages and AI taking jobs. What a time of sunshine and roses. 😎🌹

Links:

https://fortune.com/2023/07/17/i-dont-expect-recession-janet-yellen-economy-good-path-inflation/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-janet-yellen-wrong-treasury-secretary/

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/conagra-ceo-notes-hunkering-down-behavior-grocery-shoppers

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/employers-renew-push-for-rto-5349545/

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/boston-tests-office-conversion-plan-6352202/

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/18/heres-how-bidens-student-loan-forgiveness-may-impact-your-taxes.html

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/households-struggle-to-borrow-6361402/

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/big-banks-upbeat-on-us-economy-6357242/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUDXfWBDtFY

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forced-retire-60-firefighters-finances-040129459.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/lost-job-chatgpt-made-me-obsolete-copywriter-2023-7

https://fortune.com/2023/07/19/remote-work-commercial-real-estate-distress-24-billion-second-quarter/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-launches-new-payments-system-that-lets-you-send-money-in-seconds-140305052.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-olfLz6AgE&t=1127s

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/loan-officer-m-seeing-middle-000641114.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-seth-klarman-says-everything-140349429.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/20/june-home-sales-drop-to-the-slowest-pace-in-14-years.html

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/some-bosses-oppose-return-to-office-6355858/

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/blackstone-hits-1t-milestone-6362170/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/something-very-strange-explains-why-224230549.html

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/recession-coming-its-a-toss-up-6362866/

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/fed-launches-instant-payments-5701348/

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/home-sales-slow-even-as-prices-fall-6355874/

 Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/ 

Transcript

Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here's your host, Sara Causey.

Today it is Monday, July 17. We were told that it would finally dry out this week, it would be hot like it always is during the dog days of summer, but it would finally dry out. No, no. mere moments ago, it was storming. I had to wait to record this segment of the broadcast until the weather passed enough that I could torrential rain, lots of thunder and lightning. We didn't get any hail some other areas around here did get some hail we didn't I think up in Kansas, it was actually ping pong sized hail, which is crazy. But yeah, it was gonna dry out this week, I was hopeful that maybe this could be the week that some hay was cut and bale and delivered but I don't think so. Gardens this year are having the opposite problems as they did last year. Last year, we had the drought and plants were burning up. literally burning up on the vine, it was terrible. This year, rot, mold, mildew, tried to grow melons in this they get belly rot, it is a mess. I also remember saying that last year, we managed to preserve three jars of summer squash. And that was the extent of it. So if we had been relying on that garden as a primary food source, or a primary Food Prepping source, we would have been screwed. Well, this year, it's not any different. I know that this is an unpopular statement, because so many homesteaders and preppers are big on growing your own food. And I'm not going to tell you that I'm not big on that it is so much healthier when you know what has been done to that produce and what has not been done to it. What seeds Did you buy? Are they non GMO, I feel like that's a healthier way to live. However, I'm also a realist, and I know that I can't control the weather. I can't control what kind of harvest we get, what kind of pestilence we have to deal with. And I think that putting all of your eggs in that basket, because of how difficult it has gotten to just have a rudimentary garden. If you're putting all of your eggs in that basket, as far as food or fruit, food preparation, emergency preparedness and so on, I hope that you have a plan B, C, D, I really do. If we had been dependent on a garden last year or this year to live, what a mess that we would be in, you also have to factor in the cost of maintaining it, the labor that's involved, your know how, et cetera. So I guess what I would say is if you don't have a green thumb, if you live in an apartment or a condo, the space does not exist for you to be able to do much more than something on a windowsill or maybe one of those little countertop indoor gardens. Please do not beat yourself up over that don't think that you're completely out of the game on being able to prepare because even if you have a garden right now, if it's getting decimated with rot, because of the unrelenting rain, all of a sudden, in the Midwest, we've been transported to the Gulf Coast and it's humid and thunderstorms literally every day. You can't control that. So don't count yourself out. My suggestion, I don't give you advice. I don't tell you what to do or what not to do. But my suggestion would just simply be, you know, probably would be a wise idea to have a plan B, C, D in case having a garden doesn't actually turn out very much food. It's sad that we live in these times. Because I can remember my great grandmother even the years that she had a relatively small garden, I'm talking like a backyard garden. Nothing fancy. Nothing special, not not acres upon acres of fruits and vegetables, a simple rudimentary backyard garden, the amount of food that we would pull out of that garden was crazy. I'm just like Whatever happened to that whatever happened to the good old fashioned backyard garden where you could have your fruits and vegetables through the summer and you wouldn't have to buy anything extra at a farmers market or supermarket. Why is it so difficult to achieve that now? Things that make you go hmm, I won't put on my tinfoil hat. But I would definitely wonder out loud Why is it so damn difficult to just have a simple garden that produces food? kind of curious. Over on Yahoo Finance Today we find Goldman lowers recession forecast as Goldilocks in incomes in play in the byline. After a cooler than expected inflation, print and resilient labor market data. Goldman Sachs is seeing less of a chance the US economy sees a recession in the next 12 months. Wow. You might have to be Goldilocks or some other fairy tale character to believe that that okay, stocks edge up as investors brace for week of earnings over on fortune.com as well as several other news outlets like Bloomberg, I think has a video up. Janet Yellen says economy on good path, no recession likely. In this she says I don't expect a recession. The economy is on a good path to bring down inflation without major weakening in the labor market. And last week's report on consumer prices was quite encouraging. Let's just all have a round of applause. Give a little golf clap. Wow. That's wonderful. If you believe it, I guess I'm gonna go back to CBS News. So a major mainstream media news outlet and we're not talking about far left or far right some some outlet nobody's ever heard up. CBS News had an article from June 1 of 2022 titled Yellen admits she was wrong about inflation in 2021. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNN on Tuesday that she was wrong when she said last year that inflation only posed a small risk and wasn't likely to be problem in quote. So the same person who told us that inflation was transitory Hey, man, it's kind of like no big deal is the same person that saying the economy's on a good path. Inflation is going to come down without a major weakening in the labor market. Consumer prices are quite encouraging. Nothing to see here. People Move along. Move along. Right. Okay. published on July 14 of this year. On Fox Business we find con accuracy Oh notes hunkering down behavior and grocery shoppers. In the byline we find he called it a likely temporary behavior shift for consumers to stretch their budgets. The head of ConAgra brands on hold on the article jumped on me they're trying to give me a bunch of ads just a second, the head of ConAgra brands on Thursday revealed a likely temporary behavioral shift the company has observed from grocery shoppers in recent months during ConAgra. This fourth quarter earnings call CEO Sean Connolly noted that some consumers were hunkering down and buying fewer items overall a move they had done rather than engaging in trading down to a less expensive brand. He did so while he described some headwinds that the food giant expected for the beginning of its fiscal 2024 year. I would imagine that to be the case. Is it likely temporary, I don't know. But when you are talking about people hunkering down in their food choices, and then you also think about the articles we've seen a buy now pay later for groceries, you know that things are tough times are tight. When even places like the Walmart or the Dollar General are getting expensive. People are having to make difficult decisions and $1 tree you know that people are struggling, even though we're not supposed to think that's the case. On LinkedIn earlier we find employers Renu push for RTO with Office occupancy sliding back down to 37.4%. In July, bosses are bearing down on the message that team productivity and careers take a hit from remote work. In particular they're saying that integrating and training younger employees here we go the kids won't someone think of the children dammit. Training younger employees suffers when people work outside the office. Eavesdropping is a huge form of education. One founder of an architectural firm told The Wall Street Journal strategic decision making and even work life balance can also suffer employer said as attention becomes divided at home or as people work outside normal hours. Office occupancy reached 49.8% across 10 major metro regions in June according to property manager Castle systems following return to Office mandates affecting more than 600,000 workers and quote Yeah, Eavesdropping is a form of education. Okay. All right, a blog post about this to go into more depth about that. But I mean, really.

They will say at this point, corporate America will say anything to try to get your ass back in that seat. Now on another note from LinkedIn, we find Boston tests office conversion plant. Before I read that, I'm just going to go ahead and dip in and say, remember, I predicted that because I did. I told you that if someone wanted to make the argument to me about a 15 minute city. And that being a plausible use of this unoccupied office space, I would listen. If someone's telling me that RTO is just getting cancelled and that all of these corporate real estate companies would bulldoze their real estate wholesale, or that they would be beneficent and just handed over to the homeless populations. No, it's not going to effing happen. It's not. I made a prediction. And I did so back on April 3 of this year. And I said, Perhaps your overlords would like that idea. Your housing and office all in one building, live upstairs and then ride the elevator down in the morning and work until it's time to ride back up in the evening. That even Trump's a 15 minute city. We're like a 15 second prison. Then here we are a few months later, I see Boston tests office conversion plan. Boston landlords will soon be able to train empty office buildings for tax breaks as the median monthly rent for a one bedroom in Beantown hits $2,800. The city is tackling its escalating housing affordability crisis with a program aimed at converting commercial space into residential Mayor Michelle Wu is offering discounts upwards of 75% on the already much lower residential tax rate for developers willing to turn offices into housing units. The city's share of vacant downtown office space rose to 14.2% in the second quarter, and who says the initiative will ensure that Boston's growth meets the needs of current and future residents in quote, Tulsa. I told you, I'm not going to get on here and do the false modesty. Oh, well, I mean, yeah, I did. I did predict this. I did say something like this would probably happen. No. To heck with that. I have been on the leading edge of telling you what was coming down the pike as it relates to the job market as the economy relates to the job market and vice versa. I have been out here on the leading edge making these predictions for you. Now I do so for your entertainment only. In fairness, any argument I opine for your entertainment only and that's it. I hope that you've been with me for a while and I hope that none of this is hitting you. Funny in the air. It's hitting you off guard. It's taking you by surprise. Today it is Tuesday, July 18. Over on CNBC and we find Dow rises for a seven day gaining 300 points after better than expected earnings. So it appears that today is a good day for Wall Street. homebuilder sentiment rises again in July, but builders warned higher mortgage rates are hurting. Here's how Biden's $39 billion in student loan forgiveness may impact your taxes row. In the TLDR key points we find if you're eligible for Biden's $39 billion student loan forgiveness, you won't owe federal taxes on the canceled balance. However, experts say you could owe a state tax bill depending upon where you live. There's no free lunch is there. On the side panel for LinkedIn, we find households struggle to borrow. More Americans are getting turned down for loans with the rejection rate at its highest since 2018. According to new figures from the Federal Reserve. roughly 22% of loan applications over the last month were denied likely due to higher interest rates and recent bank failures notes Forbes, the borrowing challenge comes just as the conclusion of multiple pandemic era programs at once could leave millions of Americans teetering on the edge of a financial cliff Axios reports. For instance, when payments on federal student loans resumed in October after a three year pause, it will feel like a 5% pay cut to some households. Similarly, the end of $52 billion in federal assistance for childcare programs means that as many as 70,000 facilities could close and foreign 10 programs expect to increase tuition. Families that will be affected on multiple dimensions are especially at risk. Christo Ruffini, an assistant professor at Georgetown tells Axios however, Americans bank balances are generally higher than they were pre pandemic by about 10 to 15%, though many people are quickly spinning down the excess. Hmm. Okay, I don't know that I personally believe that all of these bank balances are higher than they were pre pandemic, especially when you factor in inflation and how much it cost just to simply buy food right now. Do I think households are struggling to borrow? Yes, of course. That's the thing. The debt that you owe is going to be more expensive to service and banks are going to be looking at you like are you qualified to take out this money or not? The age of easy money is not continuing to go on right now. Although there are plenty of people making the argument that we ought to go back to quantitative easing. Oh inflation is cooling off we need to fire up the printing press and hand out some more cash willy nilly. What a crazy jacked up time we live in. Also on LinkedIn, we find big banks upbeat on US economy. Bank of America second quarter earnings were up 19% over last year as the company reported Tuesday adding to a stream of better than forecast results from large US lenders. Revenue also saw double digit growth to $25.2 billion 25 point 2 billion with a beat. We continue to see a healthy US economy that is growing at a slower pace with the resilient job market would have only been better if you said robust with a resilient job market. So the bank CEO Brian Moynihan, Morgan Stanley also beat analysts expectations with second quarter revenue of 13 point 5 billion versus and expected 13.0 2 billion, though its profit fell 14%. During that same period, competitors JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo announced major second quarter profit spikes on Friday, Goldman Sachs, which will announce its own second quarter results this week lowered its recession forecast for the next 12 months to 20% from 25%. Unquote. Definitely a tale of two cities there is it not? The banks are doing great Wall Street's doing great. Now, the average citizen that needs to borrow money is having some struggles, but we're not going to worry too much about John JQ public. There was a video I watched earlier today on YouTube on Scott Walters channel, I'll drop the link. So you can check it out for yourself if you want to. Where he talks about the number of people struggling to buy food and the number of people that are now dependent on SNAP benefits from the government in order to access food. But hey, you're supposed to think that people are doing great because that's what you're being told in mainstream media news outlets. Wall Street's doing great they had a nice day today. The banks are doing great, their earnings are record breaking. Isn't this fantastic? But then you have the average citizen struggling to afford food. And yet you're also supposed to believe that inflation is abating.

Yeah, I can't. I can't with that. Today, it is Wednesday, July 19. Over on Yahoo Finance things seem to be doing just fine. For the most part, we're hearing a lot of good news. Goldman Solomon feels very, very good despite rough quarter. In the byline we read. The boss of Goldman defended a shift away from consumer banking and highlighted new signs of optimism in capital markets. Wow. Stocks rise with Goldman tech earnings in focus. Okay, 68% of investors anticipate a soft landing according to the chart of the day why Bank of America CEO is dialing back on recession odds. Wow, okay. In perhaps less good news, we find a TNT might spin $4 billion replacing LED cables analysts say forced to retire at 60 This firefighters finances took a big hit Like so many other retirees. Hmm. I think perhaps this might give us a dose of reality unlike the hopium that we found in some of those other headlines. So in this article on Yahoo Finance by way of USA Today, we read Martin Rucker had one joyful moment in the spotlight back in 2013. Just as the city of Detroit wrangled through its painful municipal bankruptcy the largest in US history. The fire engine operator with the magnificent booming baritone won a home of the brave national anthem singing contest at Comerica Park, home of The Tigers Baseball team. The $10,000 prize was used for a number of things to help fellow firefighters contributing to a department school supply drive and to other projects, including paying for a microwave at other fire houses in the city. That money kind of went everywhere, Rucker said his fellow firefighters fondly remember Rucker as the fireman crooner, he has sung the national anthem at major Detroit stadiums and venues for many years. Rucker worked in the Detroit Fire Department for 23 years and would have worked longer to get a full pension. But he had to retire in September of 2022. At the mandatory age of 60. He like others still on the job in 2013, felt the hit of the city's bankruptcy. Many are now new retirees facing financial challenges. I'm going to butt in here and say, Oh, but I thought that according to mainstream media, people who have taken early retirement or people who dipped out because they were afraid of the huh, they're doing great. They are doing great. They're living on cloud nine, they have plenty of money, they're flush with cash. And also according to generational clickbait, we're supposed to think that anybody in the baby boomer generation is rich. But now you're telling me that isn't the case. Imagine I'll continue to read wreckers pension payout was a mix of old and new calculated based on benefits accrued under the legacy plan which was in play Before the bankruptcy and the hybrid plan, which took over after the bankruptcy and pays less to those who retired later, under the legacy plan, Rutgers pension benefit was frozen and the calculation was based on a 10% pay cut that hit many in the police and fire department in September 2013, a pay cut that was put in place to address the city's financial distress. Rutgers benefits under the legacy plan did not accrue any cost of living adjustments or salary increases in the future because that plan was frozen. According to Jeffrey peg, a firefighter and Secretary of the Detroit Firefighters Association local 344, paying also as a trustee for the police and fire Pension Board. The hybrid pension plan took effect on July 1 2014, and uses a smaller multiplier in the calculations Peck said and lead to a smaller pension benefit. Now 10 years after Detroit filed for bankruptcy, Rucker is happy to have found a job after he retired that pays $15 an hour as an express driver delivering auto parts from a Ford dealership in Dearborn, Michigan to mechanics all over town. He has worked there since March, retirement was the greatest seven month vacation I've ever had. In fact, it was the only seven month vacation I've ever had joke Rucker but wait a minute. If retirees were doing great and all of the baby boomers were flushed with cash, then why would somebody have to go back to work making 15 bucks an hour as a delivery driver? The new 40 hour a week job is definitely necessary. He said to pay his mortgage and cover his expenses. His savings he admits were limited to about $100,000. And let me been in here again, that's not chump change. There are plenty of people who do not have anywhere near 100 grand saved up for their retirement. So we're not talking about oh, he had $3 million. And he had I don't know a big blowout No, no. But yet we're supposed to believe like Mitch McConnell and the STEMI checks. People are flush with cash and are doing great. Of course. Well, that might sound like a lot to some he notes. It can be gone in four years or so if you start withdrawing 4000 a month to make it last longer. He figures he might be able to tap into 400 a month or so or $4,800 a year. I didn't have nearly enough money to keep me going I guess to age 85, which I'm hoping to live to no one knows what their expiration date is. His pension is about 24,000 a year or $2,000 a month. He also draws 1000 a month or so right now from his limited limited savings and a deferred income plant. I'm literally eating up the principal every month he said it's not a rosy picture. He knows a paycheck even a small one can help cover some bills and delay draining his savings too early in the game. He says he appreciates what he has but he knew that he had to find another job after leaving the fire department. It's not like your savings replenish themselves. Rucker slashed one bill this year because he has been able to obtain health care through his new job. He's now paying about $200 a month for health care instead of paying about 527 a month for coverage under the Affordable Care Act. How affordable wasn't the admin avoiding going to the doctor? so awful. He's looking at one tax break for his Michigan income taxes in 2023 to a new state law exempts pension income from the Michigan state income tax beginning in 2023. For public police officers and firefighters, county corrections officers and state troopers and sergeants for all taxpayers. The Michigan income tax rate has dropped to 4.05% and 2023 down from 4.25% in 2022. left up to me I'd still be working he said my exit was mandatory. Rucker bought a new home with a brand new mortgage in October 2021. About a year before he retired. He had lived in Rosedale Park in Detroit since 1996, which he loved for many years. His neighbors had his keys to the house and vice versa. They looked out for one another one on vacation. He decided to leave his old home because he became very disturbed about some murders that happened on his attractive street of big brick homes and well maintained lawns. Yeah, I would say that will probably make me scared to one robbery and murder bothers him to this day where 29 year old Detroit firefighter Jack Wiley Jr. was found shot in his home in 2018. It was very, very sad. After that case and other troubling incidents, it felt like the specialness of his neighborhood was gone. He prayed over it but decided it was time to move. Get out of here go someplace else. At the end of my career, I took on a brand new a brand new mortgage. He said he went from nothing a month to a mortgage to 1200. And then there was a property tax increase that hit after the taxable value went up which bumped up the payment to 1500. After he retired. He knew he needed another job to keep up. His wife is working in retail sales. I can't take another increase in anything. He said. Wow. Yeah. There's a lot to digest there, isn't it? I mean, think about the various things that are out of our control. I know we don't lie I have to do that. I know that I'm supposed to get on a podcast and tell you, I guess like the Neo cons, every single thing that happens to you is your own fault. You are the complete and total master of your destiny. Nobody ever gets a bad break. Nobody's ever a victim of circumstance. I mean, look at just the story. How would you feel if you had been living in a neighborhood where you had keys to the house, your neighbors would go and check up on you Everything felt safe, and then murder started happening? That would make me nervous. I think I would lose some sleep over people getting shot and killed in their own homes. mandatory retirement, what if you're working for a company or an agency where you have to retire at a particular age, no matter what. I also want to point out the notion of you don't control if a city goes bankrupt, if whatever source your pension is coming from goes bankrupt, or hits the skids in a major way financially, you typically don't have any control over that. This goes back to the idea of if you don't hold it, you don't own it. You cannot control if a company, a city, a county, a municipality goes bankrupt, and all of a sudden your pension is cut down, or maybe it evaporates altogether. Those of us who are old enough to remember the trauma of the Enron scandal, people being ready to retire and realizing they were completely wiped out. It makes an indelible impression on you.

This was also it stirred up some information for me that I read in Morgan Housel book, The Psychology of money. I'm about halfway through it at this point. But it it brought me back to the first chapter, which is titled No one's crazy. And I thought it was really interesting how he talks about the idea of retirement and pensions. And he tries to break away some of the stereotypes that we have about that. I'm reading now from chapter one of the book, the psychology of money, take retirement, at the end of 2018, there was $27 trillion in US retirement accounts, making it the main driver of the common investor saving and investing decisions. But the concept, the entire concept of being entitled to retirement is at most two generations old. Before World War Two most Americans worked until they died. That was the expectation and the reality. And then he shows a chart of people in the workforce like labor force participation rate for men aged 65 Plus, and it goes from 1880, down to 2010. And then 1880, we find that it's a 78% participation rate. Whereas in 2010, it was 22%, in 1990, and gone down to 18%. And in the year 2000, it was at 18%. So there is a slight bump, which I think we will probably see more off because of this exact story of somebody being forced into retirement having to move because of crime in their neighborhood. And now they're not able to just live off of their savings and go back to work. Even though we're supposed to think people are doing great. And all baby boomers are wealthy. I think if you have common sense, you know better than that. But it's interesting to think about retirement being a concept that isn't most two generations old. And so I looked at this chart, and I'm like, I'm gonna go back through the family tree and really think about this. And when I did when I started to go back and look at the great grandparents, yes, but even more so the great, great, and the great, great, great grandparents, yes. Oh, yes, they were working. And in fact, one of my relatives in his obituary, it talks about how he worked. He was involved in investing and involved in working and he believed in being debt free. And he did that until the day he died. It is interesting, I think to juxtapose what happened in the older generations versus what's happening now, especially because we do get the generational clickbait. It's the boomers versus the millennials or the Gen Z years and all of the baby boomers are wealthy, and they've all had it so easy. Those of us in Gen X typically get forgotten about which as I've said before, that's okay by me. Something else that Morgan points out in this book that I think is very interesting. Again, I'm reading from chapter one. There's a widespread belief along the lines of everyone used to have a private pension. But this is wildly exaggerated. The Employee Benefit Research Institute explains only a quarter of those aged 65 or older had pension income in 1975. Among that lucky minority, only 15% of household income came from a pension and quote, that's interesting, because I think we do have that stereotype in our mind. I've talked about it before the idea of retiring with a pension and a gold watch and health far away we are from that reality now. So it's interesting to dispel that idea that everyone used to have a private pension. The point I want to make in this broadcast is whether you have access to a pension public or private, or you don't. If you don't hold it, you don't own it. I know it's scary to think about what would happen. What would happen if that money dried up? What would happen if that money was dramatically reduced? But I think it's when you don't wargame out a strategy that you can really be in big trouble. I mean, let's go back and look at the title of this article again, forced to retire at 60. This firefighters finances took a big hit Like so many other retirees. It is scary to me the amount of people that just will not prep. They will bury their head in the sand. They don't think about what could happen if they became that person. On that note, an article popped up on my phone today for Business Insider and it's titled, I lost my job to chat GPT and was made obsolete. I was out of work for three months before taking a new job passing out samples at grocery stores. In this we read. Emily Hanley is a freelance copywriter, writer and comedian. She said she started losing work when clients decided to use chat GPT instead of hiring a copywriter Handley says that if a robot can do your job for less, it'll end up doing that and quote, think about how many people would look at this article whether they sat down and they read her entire experience where they just looked at the TLDR key points. They would look at that and say that's really sad. I hate that for her. But it was just never happened to me. Same thing with the firefighter. Wow, that's really a bummer. I hate that it happened to that guy. But it would just never happen to me. Yeah, I had a NEO lib the other day tell me that I was a recession fear monger. We're not a fear monger, but a recession fear monger. And I thought okay, you're entitled to that belief. If somebody wants to think that they're completely entitled to think that if they get steamrolled by what's coming they're entitled to that as well. If you want to get on Yahoo Finance today and look at all of this Goldman Salomon feels very, very good despite rough quarter. Why bo v of of a Bank of America CEO is dialing back on recession odds 68% of investors anticipate a soft landing. If you want to listen to all that you can. I'm not going to stop you. I myself am going to choose not to listen to that because I know what I'm still seeing with my own eyes and hearing my own ears. Over on fortune.com Today we find the scourge. What an adjective What a way to describe it the scourge of remote work since US office distress up to $24.8 billion. That's even worse than malls and hotels. Wow. In this we read about $24.8 billion of us office buildings were in distress at the end of the second quarter, surpassing previous leading commercial real estate laggards, hotels and retail properties. The total value of offices that were financially troubled or already repossessed by lenders shot up about 36%. From the first quarter m s CI real assets reported Wednesday, at the end of June 22 point 7 billion of retail properties, including malls and 13 point 5 billion of hotels were in distress. The total for all troubled commercial properties was almost $72 billion, up from 13%. In the first quarter, the office sector who's responsible for the largest share of market wide distress according to the report based on filings for bankruptcies, defaults and other publicly reported property issues. It's the first time since 2018, that neither the retail nor hotel sector was the biggest contributor and quote, look, people are doing great. Nothing to see here. Move along, move along. We're going to have that nationwide strike against RTO. Somehow, corporate real estate will just bulldoze those buildings or they'll be really beneficent and they will give those properties to homeless. They won't turn them into Reza mercial spaces where you work downstairs floors one through three or the office and then floors four through 12 are the living quarters for the peons and the serfs now the CEO he's not gonna live there, but you're gonna have to know we're going to have that nationwide strike and everything is going to be fine. And if you think otherwise, you are just a recession fear monger. Where

are you looking For more, don't forget, you can find Sarah on her blogs at Causey consulting llc.com. And at Sara causey.com. You can also read her content on medium, and substack. On with the show.

Today is Thursday, July 20. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find fed launches new payment system that lets you send money in seconds. Now, before I ever even get into this article, or make any kind of commentary about it, let's go ahead and play our friend the whiny neoliberal man. That's just a conspiracy theory. So here we go. The Federal Reserve Thursday officially launched its long awaited Instant Payment Service fed now, which allows consumers and businesses to send and receive money in seconds. This system lets Americans pay for groceries instantly, businesses pay their suppliers where people pay each other. It will be available 24 hours a day every day of the year with full access to funds immediately. Fed now isn't offered directly to individuals and businesses, but it will serve as the basis of infrastructure for instant payments by linking banks. transactions occur between bank accounts and enable funds to be transferred from a sender's bank account to a receivers bank account immediately. The limit per customer credit transaction will be $500,000. But the initial setting of the transaction limit will be 100 grand. The money can move from consumer to consumer, from consumers to businesses or from business to business. The Federal Reserve built the Fed now service to help make everyday payments over the coming years faster and more convenient, said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over time as more banks choose to use this tool. The benefits to individuals and businesses will include enabling a person to immediately receive a paycheck, or a company to instantly access funds when an invoice is paid in quote. So all of that sounds really pleasant. It sounds good. This sounds like good news. A couple of days ago, I watched Russell Brand's video titled within 30 days, this will change the world forever. Now, typically, I really don't want to get into any kind of clickbait like that. As you know, whenever people post a video, you've got three more days, you've only got two more weeks. I'm like, no, just No, make your point without the fear porn, please. This is an interesting video, I'll give him a pass card on the within 30 days thing because he raises some good content in the video. In the write up, we find as the Federal Reserve reports a successful month long digital dollar test. And 130 countries are now piloting or launching CBDCs. Are we heading towards a future of convenience at the cost of our freedom? Question mark? That's a valid question. And I think it's one that people should be asking, as he points out in this video, there's always the push of this is to your benefit. This is healthy, this is good. It benefits you had benefits the community, everything about this is good and virtuous. They don't ever tell you about the negative possibilities of it. For example, if you step out of line and you do something that's disagreed with, and your social credit score goes down, then what? And don't act like that's unprecedented because we've had people that got D platformed and D banked. long pause there. So you can think about that. And I don't give a damn, it doesn't make a dimes worth of difference to me. If you're listening to this and you're on the right wing or you're on the left wing. I don't care. You have to think about what would happen if you didn't toe the line. What if you said something that offended the corporate overlords? What if you said something that offended Wall Street? What if you said something that offended the state? Then what? They cut everything off? This is a crazy time that we live in but I know I know. That no doco bergerie Are they? Also on Yahoo Finance by way of Fortune we find loan officer says I'm seeing middle class homebuyers take on $7,000 mortgages thinking they can always refinance when rates come down in the future. Holy cannolis a $7,000 mortgage Wow. And in this we read just before speaking with Fortune downs wrapped up a call with a middle class couple in the Washington DC area who told him they were expecting a mortgage payment of around $7,000. The call I just had was a typical area household. One person makes 150 grand the other makes 120 grand so 270 total, and they set a payment goal of $7,000 I'm still not used to hearing people say that out loud down said Yeah, I don't I'm not used to it either. Seven grand Wow. To me that feels like a situation of just because you can. Does that mean you should feel like that's another valid question to ask. Also on Yahoo Finance billionaire Seth Klarman says the everything bubble might pop soon. In that we find unprecedented temperatures are a common theme this summer, making it very possible this year will be the hottest year ever recorded on Earth. Meanwhile, as the scorching heat bears down on many corners of the globe, investors are enjoying an extended moment in the sun. Well, good for investors. The markets have been on a consistent upward trend evoking memories of the euphoric days during the pandemic, when gains seem to come free and easy. In fact, billionaire Seth Klarman suggests that the so called pandemic bubble may not have burst at all. And what we're experiencing now might be an extension of those times. I will run in and say yeah, I'm kind of suspicious that that might be true. You had a bubble, it was really a credit bubble. That became an everything bubble. Klarman recently set the value minded Klarman who runs the bail post group and oversees approximately 200. Now excuse me approximately 25 billion in assets. concedes the bubble did a pretty good job of collapsing last year, but warns that there could be more carnage on the way. We haven't seen a lot of bodies float up out of the hedge fund boss ominously. I don't know what that means. But I'd be worried and quote, well, I'll agree with that. I don't know what it means either. But I'm worried too. I don't think we have seen a lot of bodies float up. I mean, seriously, we haven't seen or been told about maybe that's the more accurate way to say it thus far, we've not been told about. In the mainstream media, the types of things that we saw in 2008. And 2009. I don't write it off is like, well, obviously, that's not going to happen in definisi. Here, people move along, move along. No, I think we're in some kind of weird holding pattern. Over the past couple of weeks, I've started to have that just uneasiness in my spirit, again, like a nesting sensation of I think it's about time to just really review prep work. Think about whether or not we're in good shape, what could we do better? I don't know. I mean, and I understand that. Some people are not spiritual, they don't really put much credence and intuition or emotions, which is fine. It's your right to feel that way. To me whenever I get those impulses, I pay attention. Because I feel like I've learned the hard way about what happens if I ignore that. And I tried to go into hot air and hopium land. Yeah, it's great. It's nice to listen to people on social media telling you whatever it is, they think you want to hear. However, that's not going to do you much good in a crisis situation in an emergency situation and an economic freefall. It just won't. I think he may be right here, that what we're experiencing now is an extension of those times. I'm also suspicious that there's a lot of bad news out there. I know Okay, Debbie Downer. I'm suspicious that there's a lot of bad news out there that we're not hearing about. Over the past couple of days, I've talked to multiple people who made changes to their job in 2022 and are now living to regret it and 2023 because they've been laid off. They got enticed away. Somebody told them the startup was going to be amazing, or somebody told them they were underpaid. Some recruiter called and saw in their ear to lure them away. They got into a situation that was unstable without knowing it, and now they're unemployed. When you hear that from multiple people, in more than one industry, various parts of the country it definitely makes you pay attention and wonder how many things that we're not being told. Over on CNBC we find June home sales dropped to the slowest pace in 14 years. A short supply chokes the market is in short supply. Is it and the TLDR key points we read June home sales were 18.9% lower compared with last year. That is the slowest sales pace for June since 2009. There you go another comparison to the Great Recession. There are simply not enough homes for sale said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the realtors. Okay. Look all agree that in my part of the Midwest, the inventory sucks, but it has sucked through the old pandemic. Anytime we would go online and look it was like this. This is what we have to choose from due to poor lemon houses, obvious problems, unsafe areas, unsafe living conditions. There was a place I looked at where one of the bedroom walls had started actually separate from the house. I've not ever seen that before. But a real estate can sometimes be like, Oh, you haven't seen it before we'll hold my beer and watch this.

burned out meth trailers that somebody wanted half a million dollars for it has just been Looney Tunes. In terms of the inventory that's available right now, today, it's still more of the same due to poop houses and burned out meth trailers that people think are worth a hell of a lot more than they really are. Houses that are middle of the road. Not terrible, but not great. A purgatory house, if you will, but there's something really effed up about the location. Like there's, there's one place for sale, where about an acre or two is cut out, you know, weird shape. So you would literally have somebody living in your front yard that you didn't know if you bought that place. And I'm like, Well, who wants that? We wouldn't want that we wouldn't feel comfortable with that. There's another one where I've never seen boundary lines like it before. It's like, some kind of weird, I'm trying to go back to geometry class, in my mind some kind of weird trapezoid shape. It's not like a traditional square or a rectangle. It's very weird, then, like, how would you fix that? And then what if you got into it with the person who owns the other part of a trapezoid? That would be super awkward, so just Yuck, I'm not gonna sit here and say that the inventory that's available is perfect. What I am going to say is, is it really that? Is it solely that the reason why home sales are dropping is because of a short supply? It's choking the market? Could it may not feel like the church lady here? Could it be because people are dealing with layoffs and inflation the idea of making a move right now is really lost its luster. I mean, if you have to, you have to, but in my mind if you don't have to? Definitely like what Orlando miner has talked about, sit it out on the sidelines, get yourself in as good a financial shape as possible and wait for some deals, but don't buy a doodoo poop lemon house that's overpriced and is going to fall in on you. That's horrible. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find some bosses oppose returned to office. Well, here we go. It was time for us to get a nice good bump of sunshine and roses. The workers most opposed to returning to the office full time. Question mark. See senior level executives making over 150k A year finds new research from McKinsey. In the sizeable survey, which included 13,000 People in six countries, those senior employees say they quit, if forced to come back to the office every day and would take a 20% salary hit to keep a more flexible schedule. Recruiters say that's proof flexibility continues to be a big draw for talent. Well, to me, that's like saying this lippy drink soda and her car is green. People see it now as an expectation and not a PERT explains zooms Chief People Officer Matthew Saxon a quote. Well, we'll see about that. As we go further into whatever this mess is, we'll see. We'll see. Do people like to have a more flexible schedule? Of course. Of course, that would be like asking somebody, Hey, would you rather have your favorite meal? I'm going to cook it for you. I'm going to do all the dishes. I'm going to go to the store and buy it. You don't have to do anything except sit and eat it? Or would you rather go outside in the middle of a thunderstorm and get pelted with rain and hail stones? You get to decide what you want? What a choice. Wow. Wow, you mean to tell me most people would want their favorite meal cooked for them. Instead of going outside and being pelted by hailstones. I thought, wow, wow, we saw him what a shocker. Listen, I'm skeptical of any of these surveys that are telling us all of these people are just going to quit. Talk is cheap. Okay, talk is cheap. If you're sitting in a 150k or more per your job, and you think it's safe. It's easy for you to kick back in your chair, cross your arms and go ox. I'll quit. They tell me I've got RTL. I'm out of here. Well wait until you get on the job market. Wait until you try to find another analogous position where you're making 150k or more in this economy, and you got to be changing your tune. Real quick. I'm thinking again of some of the people that I've talked to just this week. I got lured away. I chased the money. I thought this was a great operator Unity and now I'm laid off. You can play games if you want to. But I am highly skeptical that all of these people went when push came to shove for real for real for real, if you want to be Gen Z about this for real, for real for real and God, when, when it really came down to it, would they leave on 150k or more job and ass up and have a big protest over RTO? In my opinion? I don't effing think so. I don't think so. Also on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find Blackstone hits $1 trillion milestone, Blackstone has become the first private equity firm to hit $1 trillion in assets under management. The company had previously vowed to reach the milestone by 2026 but manage the feet three years early thanks to its focus on lower risk lower return strategies like insurance infrastructure in credit. One of the largest public companies not in the s&p 500 Blackstone is far ahead of publicly traded peers, such as Apollo Global Management, which reported about 600 billion in assets under management in the first quarter. Blackstone's assets at the end of the first quarter totaled $991.3 billion from 940 point 8 billion a year earlier in quote, well, it's great. Isn't it? Great to see private equity firms and hedge funds just buying up the world? Having this high valuation? Yeah, I've already played him so I'm not gonna play him again. He can be the dairy but here you go. You've done nothing and DVB happy because let's think about some of the things that Blackstone buys. Don't forget that one of the subsidiaries is Blackstone real estate advisors. Food for thought they're also on the side panel Barbin Heimer set for big bucks, which is about Barbie and Oppenheimer coming out, I think tomorrow, I have a friend who's really geeked up on wanting to go see Oppenheimer and I'm just sitting here like dude. Is it likely to be американская пропаганда? Probably. So you're gonna sit through three hours of, in my opinion, what seems to me to most likely be a propaganda film, you go ahead and you do that and you have fun. I just I suspect that the numbers for these films might not be quite as robust as what is being predicted. Now I could be wrong on that. And I will happily come on the air and eat crow. If it turns out that I am incorrect, but I'm just suspicious that when the numbers come in, they will not be as high as what Hollywood is hoping for. Today, it is Friday, July 21 fortune.com. At the moment is a cavalcade of interesting tidbits. We find Sam Venkman freetds Brother plan to buy the island nation of now Rue with FTX funds to build an apocalypse bunker new lawsuit alleges, wow. A lot to process there. Not the least of which for me is what do these fat cats and powerbrokers know that you and I don't. Because at one point in time, these people had quite a lot of money. What information were they privy to like what would drive somebody to say I want to buy an entire island for myself and use it to build an apocalypse bunker. Okay, I'm gonna put my tinfoil hat on here. But it's like if people really were doing great, nothing to see here. People move along, move along. If that were really true, why would somebody feel compelled to buy an island and use it to build an apocalypse bunker? And to me that's like things that make you go hmm. We also find the return of the siesta how extreme heat is going to change your workday. Let me just be the first person to say I don't really want to stop working in the middle of the day. I don't want to give up my family time in the evening to go back and work again. No, thank you.

We also find hybrid work is not the future says Metis, former director of remote work, it's an illusion of choice. I agree with the headline snippet here. I do. I don't think that hybrid work is the future by and large. And I've been on this podcast and on my blog saying so. Initially, it was a compromise. It was a great way supposedly for everybody to meet in the middle. The best of both worlds, the introverts that would rather be at home, had their puppy treat work from home days, the extroverts that would rather be present in the office, they had their opportunity. Was it really the best of both worlds though? I mean, did it not seem to make everybody involved more miserable? I'm just asking the question. I'm not in a hybrid arrangement. So I can't speak to it firsthand, because I don't want to be in a hybrid arrangement. I like being at home, I like calling my own shots and going to some co working space or hot desking, or whatever, two to three days out of the week is of zero interest to me. So I agree with the sentiment that hybrid work is not the future, by and large, where I diverge is the idea that remote work is somehow again, going to take hold, and it will be the way of work for the majority of white collar workers. I just don't think so. Now, what could derail that prediction, if we have another type of pandemic, if everybody gets sent home, again, to flatten the curve, that could have a major impact. But I think what we're seeing now is what I've talked about before, corporate real estate suddenly being used as a way to have a 15 minute city. Or as I quipped, a 15 minute prison, where the office is on maybe floors one through three, and then the living quarters are on floors four through 12. And you just live and work in the same building. There's no real reason to not come in anymore. Because you've only got to ride the elevator down and have to sit on a subway or in the car, you don't even have to ride a bicycle or walk can literally just get on the elevator and go down to the office. And then when you're done, you can ride the elevator back up and you can go out, you can shop, you can cross pollinate downtown, you can you can go have some beers and have happy hours down the street. That very well could be coming to a city near you. So what would be the purpose of telling everybody to work remotely if you're in some Reza mercial building, where it's both apartments and office space, what won't be the point? Just leaving a pause there. So you can contemplate that. I just I know a Debbie Downer for those of you that love remote work, if you don't hold it, you don't own it. Not everybody realistically is going to be able to get some people will want and will need to plug in and accompany and have employer provided benefits and to have three hots and a cot so to speak. They're going to be dependent on that every two weeks paycheck. This is just reality. Not everybody wants to be an entrepreneur. And I don't personally think that's a bad thing. I don't condemn anybody for saying that's not the path I want to go down. I don't want to freelance I want to have what I feel is a more permanent w two full time job. If that be the case, I hope you have an RTO survival plan. I really do. Because if you're burying your head in the sand saying well, other people might get called back to work but it would just never. You're doing it at your own risk. We also find why is healthy foods so expensive in America blame the farm bill that Congress always renews to make burgers cheaper than salad. Burgers are not very cheap right now anyway, and nothing is cheap. The onus is on you to make these decisions for yourself and your family about your eating habits. And yes, believe me I understand a lot of that is predicated on the money that you have access to Been there done that told the story on the air before about waiting for a Friday payday during the great recession. And the only thing left in the house was like magic leprechaun man off brand cereal and a little bit of skim milk. And that had to be both my dinner for Thursday night and my breakfast for Friday morning until the money finally hit my account and I could afford to go get something else. I get it. It's hard to make those healthy choices when junk food is ubiquitous in American culture anyway, and it typically is easier to go get those two for $1 or three for $1 Microwave burritos. Those things kept me fed, they shared it. It's tough. Nevertheless, I think you have to at least try you have to try to make some informed and educated decisions. Because if you're leaving that up to big ag and big food and big beverage to do it for you, do you really think they're going to have your best interests at heart? We also find Americans still haven't run out of pandemic savings quite yet. JP Morgan Study Finds oh god you know, I have to say I am just way way the hell past this narrative of people are doing great flush with cash just like Mitch McConnell, the turtle people got their STEMI checks and 2020 and they lived high on the hog and I'm like, On what planet? On what planet? It's still for me. It's like reminiscent of the miracle of Loaves and Fishes these people were multiplying their STEMI checks across the years. All this time people still have pandemic savings. Are you freaking kidding me? Then why are they doing Buy now pay later for groceries? You know, I'm pointing at my head, you got a brain in that noggin use it? Are you going to believe this crap that you're hearing? Or are you going to tune in to reality that I feel like that's what it's boiling down to? Okay. And on that note on Yahoo Finance by way of Business Insider, we find something very strange explains why US recession has been delayed hmm due till something very strange has happened in the economy that is preventing a recession. The bank highlighted that as the Fed raised interest rates over the past year corporate net interest payments actually fell. Here's how US businesses successfully navigate it and extreme cycle of monetary tightening without sparking a recession. Since the Federal Reserve began aggressively hiking interest rates last year, more and more economists warned that a US recession was imminent, did they okay, but that recession has not yet arrived. And there's no sign a recession is near, even after reliable indicators like the inverted yield curve flashed red flags. Something strange, something very strange. Yeah, Мне кажется, что это американская пропаганда. Seems to me that it might be some funny math seems to me that there might be something very strange indeed going on with the narrative, Gilad okay. So on that same note, let's go over to the side panel for LinkedIn recession coming question mark. It's a toss up. Economists who've been predicting a US recession for months now say that forecast is less than clear. Thanks to slowing inflation and a seemingly resilia economy. Let's pay attention there because we so often hear the our words resilient and robust. I don't think that that's a coincidence. I just really don't. In a new Bloomberg survey, forecasters from Deutsche Bank and Fannie Mae say it's a toss up, whether the US will enter a recession or not pointing to stronger than expected housing stats and auto sales as signs of hope. Is it hope or is it hoping you'd be the judge? Some also suggest the Feds aggressive rate hikes have helped stave off a downturn. However, there's still a 60% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, according to the survey experts and quote, yeah. Wow, just wow. You. The bottom line here in my mind is you've got to decide for yourself what you want to think what you want to believe. I'm sure that my Neo lib not fan who decided that I'm a recession fear monger. We're, I'm sure he is reading this this morning. And he is lighting up his hopium. And he is so excited. This fits a good meal live narrative Biden nomics is working, even though What the hell does that even mean? Do you think let me let me just ask you a question. Now we're really for real gonna pretend that we're sitting at the pub, having a pint together? Do you really think that the President controls the economy in this country? Do you really think so it was like What the hell does Biden nomics even mean anyway? But I'm sure that he is sitting there smoking his opium this morning going wow. That is awesome. A recession is not even coming. The Fed has done a great job of staving off, we still have a resilient economy. Inflation is slowing down. You see their Democrat policies work.

Yeah, yep, yep. Yep, sure. Look, I don't know. I really sat and thought about this. I don't know what the deal is. Why are we being bread crumbs along into this? And is it even bread crumbing anymore? Is it not just gaslighting recession coming? It's a toss up, resilient economy. Something very strange explains why the recession has been delayed. Meanwhile, to me, as I've said many times, I think we're already in a recession and we have been for a while now. To me, it feels quite foolish to wait for some talking head to trot out in the mainstream media and blow the horn or the recession. Ron has now started. Okay, great. But I had some sense that maybe when the problems became too big to ignore, as they have been in the job market, right, because we have seen some articles come out about people losing their jobs to AI, people not being able to find jobs quickly when they got laid off, people having to go through eight or nine interviews, before they ever even find out where they selected for the job, or were they not? We've seen some information in the mainstream media about that, because I think that people are talking. And it's getting tougher to ignore the fact that no, people are not doing great as it comes to the job market. You have people that are struggling, you have people that laid off, they get laid off, or they quit or they get fired. And no, they don't automatically rebound, just like that. If we really have 3.6% unemployment rate, if a great resignation was still churning and burning and going strong, we really had two legit, livable wage jobs open for every one unemployed person. Would we be seeing those kinds of struggles? I don't freaking think so. Now, when it comes to the broader economy, what's the deal? Why the gaslighting why the bread crumbing? Why? Why have we not been told, okay, we're in a recession now. And we all need to pull together. It's kind of like after a presidential scandal with a national nightmare needs to be over. We need to just unite and heal as a country and move on. I was thinking we could get some branding like that. It could be the recession is here. We need to just come together. Nobody needs to blame anybody. We need to just sing Kumbaya around the campfire. Nobody is to blame for this. We just have to suck it up. Like the the Bloomberg article, nobody said it would be fun. Nobody said it would be easy. Don't get medical care for your pets. Just eat lentils and take the bus. Nobody said it would be fun. I really thought that there could be some narrative like that. That happened. Finally, we're still not even there, folks. And so I'm wondering, are we ever going to get there? Is this going to be a recession that they just paper mache over the top of and they refuse to admit we ever even had a recession? And then 20 or 30 years down the road and investigative journalists will write a book or PBS will make a documentary about how could we have been so wrong? How could we have called the economy so foolishly? How did we miss the signs and we'll be looking at all of this in retrospect. And some of us like myself, will be like, yeah, there were people that knew that these so called economists and talking heads were full of shit. Not everybody was a dumbass. Okay. I look, I don't know, I don't know why this information is still being concealed from you. What are some suspicions? We've got an election coming up? Could this have something to do with whomever is going to ascend the fake throne? Next? Maybe? Will Biden run? Will he be retired? Will they just say he's got some health issues? He just doesn't feel like he's up for the job again, we need to run someone else. And then they pick a candidate that's more likeable. I don't know. I feel like that's a possibility. Could it be that we're going to shift away from this administration and another administration from the elephant party is going to be elected in again, I don't know. You still have people that are in a battle about Orange Man great, senile old man bad. senile old man great, Orange Man terrible. You still have people buying into that narrative and you will still have orange MAN supporters who tell you in no uncertain terms, that if he can just get back in there one more time it will all be different. It'll all be better. And I'm like, on what basis on what planet? See even though the Neo lib hater dude wants to tell me I need to go to Twitter and parlour with the other right wingers I'm like I'm not a right winger. I don't know how anybody can listen to this program and come to that conclusion. I don't get on here with Maga and Q and on stuff and tell you that the Orange Man is going to drain the swamp bang up job so far. Yeah, he did a great job with that the last time around didn't meet Ali. did was stuff his administration full of swamp rats? After saying those are the very people that he wanted to get rid of career politicians and deep Staters and all of this crap and it's like, Okay. Sure. Remember operation warp speed? Because I remember. Yeah, yep, yep. Yep. So I don't know, maybe they can get kicked down the road so that it can be blamed on somebody else. Maybe whoever comes into office next, blames it on this administration? I don't know. I feel like whatever the case may be, you can bet there's some type of political motivation for it. Because I don't think that any of these media narratives happen on accident. I don't think they happen organically. And I don't think they happen on accident. I think all of this is packaged up and presented to you, just as the overlords and the hyper elites want it to be. For all of the Cold War propaganda is same narrative. Same narrative, Orange Man, great, senile old man bad and vice versa, depending upon which side you find yourself. Safe thing with Cold War propaganda, America great. America represents freedom and bald eagles and liberty and Oh, communism over here, Russia is the iron curtain in this great evil. And then of course, the propaganda was reversed. If you were on the other side, it's the same thing. We'll figure out some way of making this somebody else's fault. And we'll get all of you embroiled in red versus blue. Donkey versus elephant, Orange Man versus senile old man or whoever else, they may decide to trot out to run the race next time around.

And while you're focused on that, like all of this kerfuffle about the sound of freedom movie, while you're too busy worrying about that, look at all of the other things that are going on, that will really impact your life, and your ability to make trade your ability to make money. If you're paying attention to smoke and mirrors and nonsense, that doesn't really impact your life, then you're not paying attention to the things that really will impact your life, you know, like an economic downturn recession, the unemployment rate CBDCs. On that note, also on the side panel for LinkedIn today, we find fed launches instant payments. The US Federal Reserve is about to make electronic payments as quick as cash. The central bank said Thursday that it has launched fed now 24/7 Instant Payment Service that can be utilized by banks and credit unions for real time money transfers, with Payments Clearing in seconds, rather than days, workers could spend their paycheck immediately. And consumers could pay a utility bill at the last minute without incurring a late fee. USA Today explains, I'm gonna butt in and say, so you can be a good consumer, you can spend that paycheck immediately. Because God forbid that you save it, or invest it just type of behavior that the fat cats do know you need to get out there and spend it immediately. And then we're also going to give you a positive scenario, hey, you could pay that utility bill at the last minute and you wouldn't have a late fee. See how good this is for you. See how awesome this is going to be? Now you go back to fighting over the sound of freedom movie. And you don't think about this, because we're just going to tell you what to think about it, which is it's great. Okay, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase are among the banks already certified to use the service. The Associated Press reports. So a couple of major humanoid banks, they're already certified to use it okay. nations including England, China, Sweden and India have already have instant payments. And other fed news. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that what has been the most aggressive fight against US inflation in 40 years, we'll conclude with a final rate increase of a quarter point at the Federal Reserve's July 25. Through 26th meeting and quote, yep. What is coming down the pike? What's going to happen later in this year and what's going to happen next year? To me, that feels like a worrisome question. It does. Also on LinkedIn, we find home sales slow even as prices fall. Home prices keep falling but sales are falling too. Okay. As I've told you before, and keeping an eye on what's happening here in the Midwest, the prices have not yet fallen enough. They haven't you still have people trying to sell doodoo poop houses for way too much money. Having a lark that they're still in 2021. The median cost of a house dropped again in June but remain one of the highest monthly median prices on record at $410,200. Pushing home sales to the slowest pace since 2009. You know, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that sales are falling to because they just told you that we have one of the highest monthly median prices on record at over $400,000. The problem CNN reports is a lack of supply. Oh, is it? Home inventories remain historically low at about 1.0 8 million units because many homeowners want to hold on to the low mortgage rates they obtained during the pandemic. Until current interest rates drop, it's unlikely that the market will ease in quote, yeah. People are just doing the best that they can, trying to get through the struggle. And yet we're supposed to believe there's no recession, people are doing great. We still have a resilient economy and a robust job market. I've said it before. And I'll say it again, before I sign off. I really believe that this downturn is going to separate out people who've paid attention from people who didn't. And it will separate out people who are capable of critical thinking versus people who are not. You get to decide which category of person you fall in. That's up to you. But only you can really make that decision. Stay safe, stay sane, and I will see you in the next episode.

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