Wealthy people are making some big money moves. It's tempting to say, "Oh well, good for them. That doesn't affect me." Unfortunately, what they see on the horizon WILL impact you.
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Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here's your host, Sara Causey.
Hello, hello. And thanks for tuning in. I wanted to hop on the air and record a Sunday night special. Things are just happening so quickly, we went through a little bit of a lull. And I felt like it was a good time to suspend the Saturday broadcast because I was really burned out on reading the same headlines and the same hot air and the same hopium and Bs over and over and over again, knowing that this is a clown world. It's fake. It's BS, it's nonsense. How could anybody fall for this, I mean, after a while it starts to wear on you. We're back into another cycle now where things are just happening quickly, I have a backlog of blog posts, because things are just happening at such a rate, like these nuggets of information get leaked down to us. And it's happening at such a rate of speed that unless I wanted to publish three or four times a day, which I don't, I don't have time for that. I wouldn't be able to keep up. It's crazy. I wanted to just hop on here, because everybody's different in the way that they interact with content. I have people who subscribe to this podcast, but not to any of my blogs and vice versa. So I intend to drop a blog post about this topic, I hope maybe this week or the next depending on how quickly I can get to it. The content is already written. It's just in a backlog. I had to release a blog post earlier today that I wrote 10 or 12 days ago about the quiet layoffs and that quiet cutting that's been going on at these major banks literally all year long. So even though we're supposed to believe that we are in the goat of all job markets, churning and burning do in great historic lows. In reality, no. We learned earlier that the Fed had quiet layoffs. So even as you are being reassured that there's nothing to see here, people move along, move along. Companies know the CEOs, the fat cats, the power brokers, they know what's really up what's really going on. And they're shoving people out the door quietly. See, this goes back to in my opinion, the episode I recorded a few weeks ago about are we in a silent depression? Are we in dire straits? Economically, it's just not being reported on in the mainstream media. I intend also to record an episode soon. I hope I've just again I'm backlogged. Guys. I intend to record an episode soon about my recent rereading of Fahrenheit 451 and the true purposes, purpose says plural of propaganda, because I get tired of commentators who in my opinion, and that's all this is, it's my opinion. And it could be wrong. Frankly, I hope it is wrong. But I get tired of these commentators who in my opinion, appear to probably be controlled, OPPO telling people. Well, the propaganda machine is still running because the situation is not hopeless. John and Jane Q Public can still come together and rally against Wall Street and the fat cats and then Politico's and really make it make it change really, we're really going to come back from it, whether they're prescribed to the thought that orange man will get back into office and make everything better and finally, quote, drain the swamp or they think that there's going to be some populist grassroots movement, and people will rally against agenda 2030 and the web. I just think it's controlled, OPPO unpopular opinion. But I don't I don't buy that. And I feel like it neglects some of the important components of why the proper propaganda machine keeps running anyway, the importance of bread and circuses and keeping people entertained, keeping them docile and distracted. Propaganda is more than just, I've got to convince you have a point that's fundamentally not true. It's also about keeping you in that altered state, very pacified, who gives a crap as long as I've got my iPhone and my Starbucks, I don't really care the rest of the world could burn down. But as long as I have my little creature comforts, and I can Doom scroll and endlessly scroll, or look at ridiculous celebrity influencers on social media, then everything's fine. I don't really give a shit about anything else. I feel like that is one important component of propaganda that gets overlooked. So it seems to me that as you're getting this hot air and hopium, from a variety of sources on either side of the political spectrum, corporate America, Wall Street, the bankers, the fat cats, the politicians, they know what's actually going on. So they may be telling you what, on the one hand, look at this shiny object, look at how great things are. But then with the other hand, they're quietly shoving people out the door, they're selling off stocks, they're making these big money moves. And I think it's worthwhile. For those of us down here on earth who are not up there breathing, the rarefied air, it's easy for us to say, well, how does that impact me? I don't have millions of dollars worth of stock to sell off. I'm not worried about trying to sell off my fancy jet airplane or lay off half of a company. How does this impact me? I don't care what they do. As I've said many times before, it's not about what these people trot out in the media and say, it's really not because they consider us to be the unwashed, uneducated, lesser than masses, they don't give a shit about us. So it's not about what they say. In my mind, it's about what they do. Because I think you can, you can look at it, if you choose to is just one big happenstance. These people with billions of dollars, it happened to them on accident. They've kept that wealth on accident. They just always seem by hook or by crook to head for the exits at the right time. They seem to buy stock at the right time to sell stock at the right time to exit the market to get rid of real estate to sell off some big expensive doodad they didn't need in the first place to lay off half the company, whatever. They just always seem to do those things at exactly the right moment. And golly, gosh, gee bang whiz, I guess they just have the Midas touch. I guess they just seem to be in the right place at the right time. And it's just by happy accident that happens. Or you can believe alternatively, that they know what the hell is going on. They get information fed to them. They're part of that structure of power brokers anyway, so they know what's coming. They get like an advanced showing, if you will, of what's coming down the road next. To me, that doesn't seem difficult to believe. So let's get a little measles scene here. For those of us in the in the unwashed masses who are down here on earth toiling away just trying to feed our families trying to keep our head above water trying to figure out how much more expensive will the groceries be the next time that I have to go to the store? How much more expensive will it be the next time I have to take the dog to the vet? How much more expensive will it be the next time the kids need school clothes or soccer cleats? The rest of us dealing with normal everyday problems. Here's the pablum that we're getting fed. Okay. From October 20. on Bloomberg we read economists boost US growth projections reduce recession odds. Little TLDR blurb says economists boost third quarter growth projections on stronger consumer Bloomberg survey respondents see higher rates for longer what well, what were the hell is the stronger consumer mean? We just had Bank of America telling us the consumer is at a breaking point after they went out and said the recession is canceled. Imagine no recession it's easy if you try according to Bank of America. Now they've walked it back as these FatCat so often do they can walk back anything they want they can try to gaslight you into thinking they said it all in the first place. Always check the record always. Now they're out here saying the consumer has reached a breaking point like we need Bank of America or anybody else to tell us that people are broken suffering, give me an effing break. But we have Bloomberg on October the 20th. This is not some ancient article from way back when on October 20. They're saying economists boost US growth projections reduce recession odds economists boost the growth on projections of a stronger consumer.
Okay, looking around again, like Seinfeld, who are these people? Where are these strong consumers? I don't know any. We don't fit that profile. But yet, you're supposed to just swallow that hook line and sinker and go along with it. Oh, well, I guess the recession is still canceled. I guess the economy is growing, churning and burning I'm also on Bloomberg October 19. So again, this is not some article from way back October 19. US jobless claims fall to 198,000. lowest level since January. In this we read applications for US unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since January, as the labor market kept powering ahead. Chugga chugga choo choo. Powering ahead. initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 in the week ending October 14, according to Labor Department data out Thursday. That was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists end quote. Wow, always now we look at how good things are. Hush little baby. Just whatever we tell you. The economy's doing great GDPs is going up turnin and burnin low unemployment low jobless claims the goat of all job markets doing great. Just sit there and believe that because that's what you're being spoon fed. Yeah. So Mack at the ranch MarketWatch on October 21 published US budget deficit swells to $1.7 trillion in fiscal 2023. As revenue tumbles in this we read 10 year Treasury yield surges sparking worries about higher borrowing costs. The numbers the federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2023 was $1.7 trillion up 320 billion or 23% from a year ago, as the government's revenues and spending both fell 20 Up 23% Holy crap, that's crazy. Imagine if whatever kind of personal or household debt that you have went up by 23% from a year ago, and maybe in trying to cope with all this it has. That's freaking scary. The fiscal year ended on September 30. key details revenues fell 9% or $457,000,000,000.20 23. The Treasury Department reported while government outlays or spending dropped a more modest 2% or 137 billion. The Treasury said the sharp decrease in revenue was due to lower individual income tax receipts as capital gains realizations fell and to rising interest rates that cut the amount of money the federal reserve deposited at the Treasury. Now there's a little blurb here that links to another story I'm going to mention because it says also read Dow books worst week in a month. US stocks closed lower after a weekly rise in Treasury yields and oil prices. So that's not good news. Spending to pay interest on the public debt rose 23% for the year or $162 billion. The gap for fiscal 2023 would have been wider had the Supreme Court not struck down President Joe Biden's student loan forgiveness program in June. The deficit was the third highest on record after fiscal years 2020 and 2021. The big picture, the latest deficit figures arrive as the House of Representatives is paralyzed as it struggles to elect a new speaker effectively putting Congress's fiscal and all other business on hold. Biden has asked lawmakers to approve more than $100 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and other priorities the nebulous other priorities. But the near term outlook for action is bleak. A partial government shutdown will ensue if a budget is not enacted by November 17. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday suggested that rapidly rising US debt levels could become good, it could become a problem going forward. Saying at the Economic Club of New York, the path we're on is unsustainable normal ship, and we'll have to get off that path sooner rather than later and quote. Now, I don't know about you, you know, we're all open to some different interpretations here how we view things does that sound like positive news turnin and burnin doing great whether we're talking about the broader economy or whether we're talking about the individual consumers private economy. It doesn't sound like good news to me. And then on top of that, you want to turn around and fire up the printing press and give more money out to other causes and foreign countries. I mean, yeah, no shit, this is unsustainable. Yeah, we're gonna have to change the path we're on sooner rather than later. And I go back yet again to that documentary. I watched about the age of easy money. And one of the officials from the Fed who said the system died in 2008. It failed. And we've just put it on life support. Think about what could happen now. I know that people don't like to, I know that people don't want to, but it's going to impact you. This is not just a problem that will affect billionaires errs, and millionaires this will impact average working class people as well. Leon Cooperman, who is a CEO and hedge fund billionaire went on Fox Business and said, I'm less worried about inflation right now, and more worried about the deficit of the country. And it's not difficult to see why as we're looking at those numbers and the rapidity with which this country keeps getting itself further and further in debt. Do you think that at some point, the bills aren't going to come due for that? I can't even yeah, like I said, there's we're instant to some scary territory. And I understand that's why people don't want to go there. They don't want to think about it. But when you bury your head in the sand, you let naivete take over all these people will solve the problem. That's the same jackals who caused the problem are going to somehow solve the problem. I will be very, very careful with that kind of mindset. The article that I intend to publish hopefully there later this week, or sometime next week is called what's old Jamie up to? Because he's been making some pretty interesting moves along with others that I think are worth paying attention to. From an article on AP news, I'll drop a link to all of these so that you can check them out for yourself and I recommend that you do. From AP news we read Jamie Dimon will do something he has never done before in nearly two decades as the head of JP Morgan Chase, sell shares in the company, the top executive of the nation's largest bank will sell 1 million shares starting next year. According to a regulatory filing this week, JP Morgan sought to reassure investors that the stock sale is not a matter of concern in quote, Ah Wow. So even the investors are getting it now. That's normally the kind of bullshit that we get spoon fed down here and the unwashed masses Hey, it's not a matter of concern. I want to unload 1 million shares of this bitch, but no concern. It's not it's not something that you should think about or worry about. Just let me do it and keep your nose out of it. Right. So he's dumping his stock is something that he hasn't done before, but don't worry about it. This is why I tell you yet again, don't pay attention to what they say watch what they do. From that same AP article. When the bank posted another blockbuster earnings report two weeks ago, diamond warned this may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades, diamond laid out a laundry list of major issues the Russia Ukraine war, the new war between Israel and Hamas and Gaza, high levels of government debt and deficits. Hmm, that's a warning we're hearing again, high levels of government debt and deficits, high inflation, as well as the tight labor market where worker demands for increased wages have led to high profile strikes in manufacturing and entertainment. And in the article, I'm going to talk about how I feel like it probably has more to do with the Fed and the inflation and the deficits and the fact that if he's doing this, he assumes those stocks are going to be worth less later than they are right now.
I think I think that's probably a big motivator for him to be doing this. Meanwhile, we also learn in an article from an unusual wales.com I will drop a link to it as well that the Walton family sold $4.39 billion worth of Walmart shares during 2020 threes first half. I myself am not a billionaire. But you know, to me, almost four and a half billion dollars worth of stock sounds like a shitload to me. That sounds like a lot. On CNN, we read JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is raising the specter of the war on inflation getting worse before it gets better. In an interview with The Times of India published on Tuesday, diamond warned that if the Federal Reserve has to keep raising interest rates to cool inflation, it will be painful. I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7%. Diamond told the paper he made the comments while attending a JP Morgan Investor Summit in Mumbai, India, in quote. Also from another CNN article, and as I said, I'll drop links to all of these please read this for yourself. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a stark warning Monday to Wall Street the Federal Reserve may be far from finished with its aggressive regimen of interest rate hikes in the fight against elevated inflation. Most analysts say the central bank will raise interest rates just one more time in November by point two five percentage points from its current range of 5.25 to five and a half percent. However, Dimon told Bloomberg TV it's possible the central bank will continue hiking rates by another one and a half percentage points to 7%. That will be the highest federal funds rate since December 1990. So there's gonna be people listening to this broadcast that weren't even alive. Got it makes me feel old. But it's true. In March 2022, when the current hiking regimen began, rates were at point 252 point 5%. Diamond was doubling down on comments he made last week in an interview with The Times of India when he said that the world is not prepared for 7% interest rates. It's also a contrarian take. According to the latest fed projections, officials forecast just one more interest rate hike this year, and rates cut next year still diamond who leads the largest bank in the United States or any sawn off a shitload of stock says Americans need to be prepared for interest rates to surge in quote. So there I mean, to me it seems like he's confident enough in his quote, contrarian take to be offloading these shares of stock and to be telling people hey, I'm gonna think you need to be prepared, the Fed might Zig when you think they're gonna zag probably need to pay attention to that. I think it is worth paying attention to watch what he's doing. I'm not so much worried about what he's saying out in public, but what is he doing? His actions are telling me along with the Waltons and some of these other people that have bazillions of dollars, they're making these big money moves. They're getting their own behinds prepared for what's coming. I just don't think that they're doing this by coincidence. I think they know that we're already in the shitter right now and that things are going to get worse. I agree with diamond that I don't think the world is ready for 7% people are going to get really steamrolled by what's coming. This is going to have an impact on mortgage rates and therefore the housing market it's going to have a bearing on consumer debt, credit card rates, etc. I mean this this is going to be tough. This is going to be tough, and I just hope that people are ready for it. Before I sign off, it's also worth mentioning report that showed up on seeking alpha.com On October the 19th. market investors aren't as worried about the state of the world as they should be, says Paul Singer. In this we read. Paul Singer founder President CEO of Elliott Investment Management said that market investors are not as worried as they should be given the current geopolitical conflicts involving Russia, China and Iran. The world is now completely dependent on the good sense of leaders to avoid an Armageddon. He said at the capitalize for kids investors conference in Toronto on Thursday, Bloomberg reported the world he said is in a more perilous place than markets, which have remained relatively calm amid the ongoing conflicts and more are being priced at singer who is known for his bearish views of the market also expressed concerns about private credit. He said that some of the money is being used to provide liquidity to troubled companies that are actually insolvent. Whoa, flashback to OA, is it not? In addition, he said that if there is a recession or a major market downturn, the Fed would cut short term interest rates to one to 3%. He recommended receiver options which Elliott Investment Management owns a lot of well, there you go. They are not cheap, he said, but they're very likely to work in a stressed market environment and quote, yeah. I don't know about market investors, and what they should or should not be worried about. I feel like down here on Earth, the rest of us have to be paying attention to this sort of thing because it absolutely in my opinion is going to impact you and your family. I think that the markets have remained relatively calm because look at all the bullshit. Look at all of the money that gets printed up and force fed into it like what he's saying institutions that are insolvent, things that aren't even working that aren't aren't even functioning properly anymore. They're just being propped up by artificially manipulated, low interest rates, which that's going away, but they were being propped up by those and by fiat currency that got handed out like candy and the bill is coming due. Now, does this mean it's gonna happen tomorrow? No, it doesn't. I don't have a crystal ball. I can't tell you that. My point in recording this episode is these billionaires and these fat cats are making some big money moves right now. And it seems to me that they're hunkering down. They're battening down the hatches and they're getting ready for a time of hell. So are you listening to Hunter and hopium? Are you out here thinking that the GDP is growing? We have the goat of all job markets, people are doing great, nothing to see here. Markets are relatively calm. So it doesn't matter if Armageddon is on the doorstep. Who cares? Or are you deciding, you know what might not be a bad idea to have some emergency food and water put back might not be a bad idea to start? being conservative with my budget, living beneath my means figuring out what I can do to survive if the US gets pulled into hot kinetic warfare? What's going to happen if lockdowns return I mean, there's so many possibilities right now. And most of them not positive. I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer. But I'm also not going to sit here and blow smoke up. You're behind either Are you ready? Do you have a sense of readiness? Is this information hitting your ear by surprise? Or is it not? Stay safe, stay sane. Keep your head on a swivel, and I will see you in the next episode.
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