Transcription by Otter.ai. Please forgive any typos!
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com, and now here's your host, Sara Causey.
Hello, hello, and thanks for tuning in. In today's episode, I really wanted to hop on and give a quick update about what I'm seeing in real time in the job market. I would say over the past two, maybe three weeks, I've noticed an uptick in what I would call short, cheap bursts of hiring. In fact, I think I might just make that the title for this podcast episode, because that's the best and most succinct way that I know how to describe what I'm observing. It's almost like if somebody has an open position, and they've come to the conclusion that, yes, it's mission critical, they're going to have to fill it. It's like this feeling of we're going to have to do this. We don't want to do this. We'd much rather just leave the position unfilled and not have to mess with actually hiring anybody. But we'll hold our nose and get through it. It's like a little kid eating broccoli at dinner time. If I can't leave the table until I've had this steamed broccoli, I guess I'll eat it, but I really don't want to, and they want the project to be done as quickly and as cheaply as possible. I've even had some freelancing projects that were pitched to me that were so minuscule, it really wasn't even worth the time and effort to mess with it. I understand there's a time and a place for doing what the crisis demands, but at the same time, if someone's budget is so low or their timetable is so tiny, you wouldn't even be able to mobilize to properly do the job for them. You have to think about your reputation. You have to think about the quality of the work and so on. That's what I'm seeing short cheap bursts and this attitude of like, well, if we have to hire, I guess we will, but God, we really don't want to. Meanwhile, on CNBC, we have the headline, the job market is strong, but competitive, says economist. The labor market is cooling, but this slowdown doesn't equate to an easier hunt for job seekers. Instead, it means stiffer competition. Job openings in April fell to their lowest level in more than three years. According to the latest numbers from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were about 1.2 job openings per unemployed worker in April down from a ratio of two openings per person about two years ago. Yet people are still eager to switch jobs in the US LinkedIn has seen a 14% increase in job applications per opening since last fall, with 85% of workers saying they plan to look for a new role in 2024 end quote, yeah, I feel like I have driven this point home so many times. It's important for you to understand how the job market works, whether you're on it at that precise moment, or you're not, and you need to understand how the job market relates to the broader economy and vice versa. Ipso facto. I mean, I sort of feel like I'm talking to somebody sitting in the corner wearing a dunce cap. Ipso facto, when the labor market cools off, it's going to be more difficult to find a job. You're going to have stiffer competition when you're getting these bizarro mixed messages about, well, the job market is strong, but it's competitive, it's cooled off, and it's hard to find work. I would say, Trust common sense. Trust what you're seeing. If people are telling you in real time, I am searching and searching and searching and coming up with nothing. I even reported on the job market journal and I came over here and made a podcast episode about people saying that they were becoming suicidally depressed from trying to find a job and applying and interviewing and applying and interviewing and getting nowhere. It is very tough out there. Frankly, I'm amazed that I've even seen what I'm calling these short, cheap bursts of hiring. But it says something to me when a company is like, oh, we'll fill this role because we have to. It's mission critical, but we really would rather just go without Can you imagine that when the great resignation actually was going strong and companies were desperate, frothing at the mouth to try. Get people in the door. This idea of, oh, I can't even believe I'm having to hire somebody. Oh, I need to take a shower. Oh, yuck. That would have seemed unfathomable, but that's the reality that we're in now. We have Business Insider informing us college graduates can't find jobs in strong labor market. Hmm, you know that could be because we don't freaking have a strong labor market. On his YouTube channel, Michael Borden arrow recorded the video, the job market is in crisis mode. No one is getting hired. Told you, I've been reporting on this for quite some time. I had a popular blog post saying it's difficult to get a job because ain't nobody hiring. This is not rocket science. It's not difficult to suss out what's actually going on. Yahoo Finance is at least somewhat more to the point they tell us new college graduates are stepping into a tougher job market, it could set their earnings back for years. I hope not, but I wouldn't be at all surprised. I think, unfortunately, it's going to set a lot of people back for a period of years. I talked before about the idea of no growth years and how that's the way that I felt during the great recession was like being the kitten in the poster hanging on to a curtain with its claws. You're not going to get ahead. You're not going to be able to save anything. You're just paycheck to paycheck, moment to moment. Please, God, don't let me lose this job. Please don't let me lose my house. Please don't let the car get repossessed. Let me just survive this period of time because we have to go through these QE, Qt cycles, boom, bust cycles, not because it's a fact of nature, but because it's a manipulated crony capitalist hellscape. If nobody else is going to be that blunt with you. Please allow me, inflation is theft and the economy is rigged. Surprisingly, Business Insider gives us a little flash of truth. I've applied to 200 jobs after layoffs and can't even get a bridge job. I believe that, in fact, I would be willing to believe that somebody had applied to two or three times that many jobs and still hadn't been able to get a bridge job or a temp assignment. Things are tough. I wish that I could say otherwise. I know I'm supposed to get on here as a content creator and be like, okay, things are rotten. Things are difficult. But let me give you some kind of happy ending. Let me give you some kind of hopium. Let me tell you that it's all going to be okay. Maybe if Orange Man gets back in office, he will wave a magic wand and overnight it will all be fine. He's already been out in the media saying that he wants it to go ahead and crash. He wants the economy to go ahead and crash because he doesn't want to be like Herbert Hoover and deal with the crash happening in his first few months back in office. Dabro buchalovit vomedicoo, oh, you can't make it up. So it seems to me that with the fat cats and the power brokers, the issue is not, is the economy going to crash. I hope the economy doesn't crash. I hope that we're not in for an economic depression if we're not there already. Wink, wink. I feel like they're treating it as a fait accompli, because they know what's actually going on, like the man behind the curtain and the Wizard of Oz. They know this goes back to something else that I say all the time. If you wait to be officially told by some talking head in the media or some politician that you think is going to trot out and save the day, doesn't matter to me. Red, Blue, donkey elephant, who gives a crap at this point, if you're waiting for some official proclamation, you're waiting to be officially told we're in a recession or we're in an economic depression. Things are getting as bad as they did after the crash of 29 and the subsequent Great Depression. If you're waiting for that, you're waiting way, way too late. I saw an article the other day, and I intend to write an entire post about it over on the job market journal, because it was somebody out in the mainstream media talking about what to do if you start to hear rumors of layoffs within your company. And I sat back and I'm like, this doesn't surprise me. It. It doesn't surprise me that this is the tone from a mainstream news source. Allow me to be frank. I feel like Johnny Depp again in the libertine allow me to be frank at the commencement, you are not going to like me. Allow me to be frank at the commencement. If you are waiting to hear about rumors of a layoff, you're waiting. For a for sale sign or a for lease sign to show up at company property. You are waiting way too late. You know what? I think I'm gonna straight up be Alex and go get a bullhorn. Hang on a minute.
If you wait to be officially told something in the mainstream news media, or you are waiting for a politician or a fat cat to come and tell you what to do. You are waiting way too late. If you wait for rumors of a layoff, or you wait for a for sale or a for lease sign to show up at the place of business where you work, you are waiting way too late. You are screwed.
So that's my opinion on that. Take good care of yourself. Do not assume that you will be able to allow your career to operate on autopilot, not in a downturn. I recorded another podcast episode about the idea that you're either getting better or you're not. You're either moving forward or you're moving backwards. But in a scenario like this, in a downturn, in an absolute doodoo poop job market, where jobs are very hard to come by, freelance opportunities are hard to come by, contract jobs, temp assignments are difficult to come by, etc, if you're not moving forward, if you're not bettering yourself, if you're not committed to a standard of excellence, you're going backwards. And I hate to say it, but you could very well get steamrolled and absolutely crushed by what's yet to come. I recorded a bonus episode over on the conserracy theories podcast about 1970s stagflation and how all of these respondents told me, 100% unanimously that the 1982 recession was worse than the entirety of the 1970s for them, 1970s stagflation gives birth to a hellscape like the 1982 recession. Please understand that as bad as things are now, they could get a hell of a lot worse. I hope that they don't. I pray that they don't, but we need to be prepared for that possibility. Stay safe and stay sane, and I will see you in the next episode.
Thanks for tuning in. If you enjoyed this episode, please take a quick second to subscribe to this podcast and share it with your friends. We'll see you next time.
